Model runs for 12/7-8 wintry threat

[GaWx]

The 12Z Wed Euro has nada in the GOM for the 12/7-8 period due to it being way too cold/dry with NW upper flow dominating. The 12Z Canadian has a GOM low at hour 168 (12Z 12/8) but it moves ESE and weakens in the cold flow. As depicted, it may be producing some IP along/near the Gulf coast into far S GA/NE FL fwiw. The 12Z GFS has nada.

[BullCityWx]

The euro has me at 18z on Monday at 33 degrees.

[burgertime]

12z says maybe some light snow on the northern side of NC this weekend.

[WeatherNC]

The 12Z Wed Euro has nada in the GOM for the 12/7-8 period due to it being way too cold/dry with NW upper flow dominating. The 12Z Canadian has a GOM low at hour 168 (12Z 12/8) but it moves ESE and weakens in the cold flow. As depicted, it may be producing some IP along/near the Gulf coast into far S GA/NE FL fwiw. The 12Z GFS has nada.

This is kind of a redundant and vague thread, especially considering the lack of activity in this regional compared to some of the other ones. It will likely confuse some folks, and result in a hog pog of disco in various threads. The MA regional starts a new thread for each cycle of guidance, at-least with that idea one knows where to go since is is clearly labeled (12z GFS, NAM, etc). The title of this thread simply states "Model runs: storms/cold, etc.", for what period. I like the idea of keeping it all in the disco until an event nears, just mo. Creating a thread for the 7-8 event would be a better course of action, since this is basically where this thread is going... That helps in not only archival purposes, but also directs people to where this particular disco is.

[GaWx]

This is kind of a redundant and vague thread, especially considering the lack of activity in this regional compared to some of the other ones. It will likely confuse some folks, and result in a hog pog of disco in various threads. The MA regional starts a new thread for each cycle of guidance, at-least with that idea one knows where to go since is is clearly labeled (12z GFS, NAM, etc). The title of this thread simply states "Model runs: storms/cold, etc.", for what period. I like the idea of keeping it all in the disco until an event nears, just mo. Creating a thread for the 7-8 event would be a better course of action, since this is basically where this thread is going... That helps in not only archival purposes, but also directs people to where this particular disco is.

Done. I changed the title. Thanks for the suggestion.

[Amos83]

Done. I changed the title. Thanks for the suggestion.

MUUUUCH better GaWx! thank you.... I was with WeatherNC in believing the different threads were getting way to confusing. This title is much more precise.

[strongwxnc]

I agree with your statement. So should we have one on going monthly disco thread (of course more as storms pop this winter) and a model thread started at each cycle of guidance (0z, 12z). You know us in the southeast have always like one main super thread. I could care less about where and how or when and why threads are posted. But I do agree that the MA folks have a good posting setup.

This might be a good thread to ask a poll question WeatherNC....

This is kind of a redundant and vague thread, especially considering the lack of activity in this regional compared to some of the other ones. It will likely confuse some folks, and result in a hog pog of disco in various threads. The MA regional starts a new thread for each cycle of guidance, at-least with that idea one knows where to go since is is clearly labeled (12z GFS, NAM, etc). The title of this thread simply states "Model runs: storms/cold, etc.", for what period. I like the idea of keeping it all in the disco until an event nears, just mo. Creating a thread for the 7-8 event would be a better course of action, since this is basically where this thread is going... That helps in not only archival purposes, but also directs people to where this particular disco is.

[WeatherNC]

Not trying to be a butt Larry, just could kind of see the spattering of posts here there and everywhere about what the models are showing. We have a lot of non-frequent members, who come here on occasion, or more often, to get the latest disco, and they may not know where to look, or post. We have two separate, but semi intertwined events coming up. They should be kept separate imo, and if the trends continue, I will start a disco for the Sat-Sun potential of -SN in northern NC, into SE VA sometime tomorrow.

[Brick Tamland]

Yes, it is a bit confusing having three threads now discussing the same things.

[WeatherNC]

I agree with your statement. So should we have one on going monthly disco thread (of course more as storms pop this winter) and a model thread started at each cycle of guidance (0z, 12z). You know us in the southeast have always like one main super thread. I could care less about where and how or when and why threads are posted. But I do agree that the MA folks have a good posting setup.

This might be a good thread to ask a poll question WeatherNC....

I was never a big fan of the 30 or 40 page 18z GFS threads on the other site as you had to look through pages and pages of posts just to pick and choose the relevant info. In the larger regionals, such as the MA or NE ones, they have enough members to fill a 4 or 5 page 12z guidance thread, and while fun in the general disco, it clutters up the regional section quickly with threads, but in there sense it works because the xZ model guidance threads which bring the regional together, since they have numerous "area" disco threads (Richmond, DC, etc..) Here we just have the Monthly SE Disco, and it works out because we are smaller, at-least at this early stage. I am a fan of situation specific threads, such as the SVR event over the past couple days, or the 7-8 storm potential, o etc... As we grow, more area threads may start popping up. Hell, you can go start one right know if you wanted to, anyone can. The mods are kind of supporting that idea from some of the posts I have seen elsewhere outside of the SE. Things just tend to get lost that way sometimes, and sometimes not, as specific events or info deserves it own place. Let me give the poll some thought on what to ask, pm me with ideas, anybody, and I will post one. Sorry for the OT, back your regularly scheduled suppressed program...

[NEGa]

I agree with your statement. So should we have one on going monthly disco thread (of course more as storms pop this winter) and a model thread started at each cycle of guidance (0z, 12z). You know us in the southeast have always like one main super thread. I could care less about where and how or when and why threads are posted. But I do agree that the MA folks have a good posting setup.

This might be a good thread to ask a poll question WeatherNC....

i think generally (last winter was an exception due to the active patterns) the se thread has a general monthly obs thread where whatever is discussed. then once we get close enough to a system it gets its own thread. i just hope we have enough active wx this winter to get confused

btw, who on earth is brave enough to venture into the MA thread

if the trends continue, I will start a disco for the Sat-Sun potential of -SN in northern NC, into SE VA sometime tomorrow.

only if you make it include ne ga, the upstate and southern nc mtns a pop up surprise would be nice - we talk about it a fair amount each year, but havent really gotten many of those lately. its usually on the models until 24-36 hours out then disappears, or worse yet turns into a bust the very morning the snow was set to start

[burgertime]

i think generally (last winter was an exception due to the active patterns) the se thread has a general monthly obs thread where whatever is discussed. then once we get close enough to a system it gets its own thread. i just hope we have enough active wx this winter to get confused

btw, who on earth is brave enough to venture into the MA thread

only if you make it include ne ga, the upstate and southern nc mtns a pop up surprise would be nice - we talk about it a fair amount each year, but havent really gotten many of those lately. its usually on the models until 24-36 hours out then disappears, or worse yet turns into a bust the very morning the snow was set to start

Funny you mention venturing into an MA thread...remember last year because of us with the Euro data we had them in our threads asking how much for back yards

[wx4life]

Funny you mention venturing into an MA thread...remember last year because of us with the Euro data we had them in our threads asking how much for back yards

I remember that...

[yoda]

Funny you mention venturing into an MA thread...remember last year because of us with the Euro data we had them in our threads asking how much for back yards

I remember doing that when FoothillsNC was doing the EURO along with Raleigh

[rduwx]

Storm going to Cuba on the 18z gfs. By the looks of that 50/50 on the 500mb there is no way anything is coming north. It's a monster!

[Ivanhater]

18z GFS is very interesting..at least for me on the Gulf coast. Even colder on this run with 850mb freezing line comfortably offshore and a stronger Gulf low riding east in the Gulf. Wouldn't take much of a northern shift in the low and snow accumulation could be pretty good.

[Itunis]

I'm tempted to bring up 2/12 but it's not worth it...weenies gonna weenie.

[rduwx]

I'm tempted to bring up 2/12 but it's not worth it...weenies gonna weenie.

I saw it but like you said it's not worth it.

[jrips27]

I saw it but like you said it's not worth it.

yeah not yet atleast.

[Ivanhater]

18z GFS Ensemble mean certainly keeps hopes alive

[Jon]

I'm tempted to bring up 2/12 but it's not worth it...weenies gonna weenie.

and Birck says....

[Itunis]

18z GFS Ensemble mean certainly keeps hopes alive

Can't wait to see the individual members...I'm sure a few will be weenietastic.

[Psalm 148:8]

I was never a big fan of the 30 or 40 page 18z GFS threads on the other site as you had to look through pages and pages of posts just to pick and choose the relevant info. In the larger regionals, such as the MA or NE ones, they have enough members to fill a 4 or 5 page 12z guidance thread, and while fun in the general disco, it clutters up the regional section quickly with threads, but in there sense it works because the xZ model guidance threads which bring the regional together, since they have numerous "area" disco threads (Richmond, DC, etc..) Here we just have the Monthly SE Disco, and it works out because we are smaller, at-least at this early stage. I am a fan of situation specific threads, such as the SVR event over the past couple days, or the 7-8 storm potential, o etc... As we grow, more area threads may start popping up. Hell, you can go start one right know if you wanted to, anyone can. The mods are kind of supporting that idea from some of the posts I have seen elsewhere outside of the SE. Things just tend to get lost that way sometimes, and sometimes not, as specific events or info deserves it own place. Let me give the poll some thought on what to ask, pm me with ideas, anybody, and I will post one. Sorry for the OT, back your regularly scheduled suppressed depressed program...

Fixed that for ya!

[buckeyefan1]

i think generally (last winter was an exception due to the active patterns) the se thread has a general monthly obs thread where whatever is discussed. then once we get close enough to a system it gets its own thread. i just hope we have enough active wx this winter to get confused

btw, who on earth is brave enough to venture into the MA thread

only if you make it include ne ga, the upstate and southern nc mtns a pop up surprise would be nice - we talk about it a fair amount each year, but havent really gotten many of those lately. its usually on the models until 24-36 hours out then disappears, or worse yet turns into a bust the very morning the snow was set to start

It's quite entertaining at times...lol

Funny you mention venturing into an MA thread...remember last year because of us with the Euro data we had them in our threads asking how much for back yards

The SE CREW is the best

It's nice to see things are still interesting

[GaWx]

18z GFS Ensemble mean certainly keeps hopes alive

Interesting find. The 18Z gfs ens. mean is more bullish for near/on the immediate Gulf coast than either the 12Z or 0Z gfs ens. means of today and similar to the 6Z gfs ens. mean of today. What will the 0Z gfs say? See you then!

Edit: one thing to keep in mind is that both the 18Z gfs ens. mean and the 12Z op. Canadian run have the GOM low moving ESE. Typically, that track direction doesn't lend itself to a strenghtening system. What I'd prefer to see is an E to ENE moving sfc low, the classic track for the most sig./strengthening Miller A lows.

[burrel2]

It would be nice to go back in the old eastern thread and look at model runs a week in advance of the feb 12 snowstorm last year. I'm pretty sure at about this time range most of the models were mostly showing mega suppression just like now.

Also, several of 18z ensemble members have a pretty solid gulf low spreading light snow through the interior southeast. Hopefully that's a good sign.

[snowman22]

The 18z Ensemble looks great! Sorta like Feb 12 this year.

[NCBlizzard]

The 18z Ensemble looks great! Sorta like Feb 12 this year.

Can you post them or provide a link to them?

[burrel2]

Can you post them or provide a link to them?

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models.html

[NCBlizzard]

http://raleighwx.ame...com/models.html

Thanks!