JoMo Posted December 12, 2010 Author Share Posted December 12, 2010 I would pretty much call this blizzard conditions out there tonight guys. Took the dog for a walk and just got back. Had to come back home with that wind and snow blowing in my face its brutal. Snow really coming down its just whiteout out there at the moment. Ground is now covered I went to bed but I suspect I got nothing. 12z GFS isn't exciting through the next 16 days either. Stupid east coast trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 I went to bed but I suspect I got nothing. 12z GFS isn't exciting through the next 16 days either. Stupid east coast trough. Yea I should have went to bed but I couldnt. Stayed up til 3 in the morning watching the snow. Ground got covered here but now its trying to melt off with the sun blasting down. To be honest I wasnt even expecting anything but flurries from the storm. Sounds like its going to be cold and dry for awhile again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 I just noticed the NWS HWO is now calling for freezing rain and freezing drizzle Tuesday night into Wednesday night. Minor ice accumulations appear possible according to the statement. Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 12, 2010 Author Share Posted December 12, 2010 I just noticed the NWS HWO is now calling for freezing rain and freezing drizzle Tuesday night into Wednesday night. Minor ice accumulations appear possible according to the statement. Thoughts? It's a weak system, would probably bring some freezing drizzle. Not overly confident that any precip would fall at all. Looks like it picks up moisture well east of here though. No precip on the GGEM, however the GGEM and even Euro do have a second system which may produce some light snow or flurries a couple of days after this. This is the energy that the Euro uses to blow up the big east coast snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Yeah... looks like GFS has .05-.10" for us. NAM has even less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Any mention of zr always sends a scary shiver down my spine! I dont want it and think i will pass this time. The problem with that stuff is it dont take much to cause havok and problems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 13, 2010 Author Share Posted December 13, 2010 Any mention of zr always sends a scary shiver down my spine! I dont want it and think i will pass this time. The problem with that stuff is it dont take much to cause havok and problems yeah it's still there on the models tonight but it would be very light, then the GFS would have a chance of some light snow or flurries a day or two later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Wretched pattern.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 13, 2010 Author Share Posted December 13, 2010 Wretched pattern.. Indeed it is. Best chance for freezing drizzle/rain will be the farther east you go, so it looks like NW would have the best chance being north of Springfield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Indeed it is. Best chance for freezing drizzle/rain will be the farther east you go, so it looks like NW would have the best chance being north of Springfield. Someone else can have that junk! Like i said ill pass on zr. Hopefully if i do get any its very minor and light just enough to make things look neat thats it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Man the sky is pitch black heading south outta town here! Looks like its gonna do something but no mention of anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Come on Mother Nature... "Please give us something to talk about..." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 14, 2010 Author Share Posted December 14, 2010 Come on Mother Nature... "Please give us something to talk about..." Well, freezing drizzle can be dangerous, especially when it accumulates on roads and it doesn't look slick. Yeah I got nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 12Z GFS shows a little bit of snow for us in NWA. Let's hope that trend continues. NAM looks further south and far less impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 14, 2010 Author Share Posted December 14, 2010 12Z GFS shows a little bit of snow for us in NWA. Let's hope that trend continues. NAM looks further south and far less impressive. Yeah the GGEM/Euro have been farther south and moisture starved though. 12z GFS is not fun to look at long range really. It does show somewhat of a pattern change Christmas Eve and on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joplinmet Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 At least our active stretch of the pattern will begin late next week, that is good news. These weak little waves this week won't do much, but at least something to watch. Remember the NAM blows past about 36-48 hours. I hope everyone is doing great. I guess when you have a great winter last year, we get the shaft this year. Doug Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 At least our active stretch of the pattern will begin late next week, that is good news. These weak little waves this week won't do much, but at least something to watch. Remember the NAM blows past about 36-48 hours. I hope everyone is doing great. I guess when you have a great winter last year, we get the shaft this year. Doug You may want to look at what the pattern was last year in early-mid December. In Tulsa at least it was cold and dry... much like it is this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 15, 2010 Author Share Posted December 15, 2010 You may want to look at what the pattern was last year in early-mid December. In Tulsa at least it was cold and dry... much like it is this year. Eh, you had some snow on the 2nd, rain on the 8th, and trace of snow on the 9th last year. This year. Nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Eh, you had some snow on the 2nd, rain on the 8th, and trace of snow on the 9th last year. This year. Nothing. Some virga on the 7th this year, but didn't reach the ground, so NWS didn't record it. Regardless, the point was that last year at this time there was an overall dry patter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 15, 2010 Author Share Posted December 15, 2010 Looks like there may be a big storm around the 24thish but it may be too far west of here. The model predicted indicies support a storm as the NAO rises. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Looks like there may be a big storm around the 24thish but it may be too far west of here. The model predicted indicies support a storm as the NAO rises. Would be neat to see a repeat of last year on those same exact dates. To far away i dont trust it lol....anything is possible though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 15, 2010 Author Share Posted December 15, 2010 Would be neat to see a repeat of last year on those same exact dates. To far away i dont trust it lol....anything is possible though I agree but it looks like we'd be on the 'rain' side of the system. A bunch of teleconnections move around at that time, EPO, PNA. I will be happy if the NAO breaks down and the Pacific decides it wants to cooperate a little better. Of course the GFS tends to be too quick at these changes, so who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 After about 3 1/2 months of nothing here that disturbance on Friday better not do much...I'm gonna really be wanting to fly back to Michigan on time lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 15, 2010 Author Share Posted December 15, 2010 Pretty large run to run differences on the GFS in the longer range, indicates something be happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Pretty large run to run differences on the GFS in the longer range, indicates something be happening. Man we need something....this is so boring lol. All this cold air to waste bad! Of course if the pattern was different it wouldnt be this cold probly and the storms would miss us to the south or north. Or it would be cold ahead of the storm then get to warm and rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 15, 2010 Author Share Posted December 15, 2010 Man we need something....this is so boring lol. All this cold air to waste bad! Of course if the pattern was different it wouldnt be this cold probly and the storms would miss us to the south or north. Or it would be cold ahead of the storm then get to warm and rain. yeah this is pretty terrible. We better start asking Santa for some snow or a pattern change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 yeah this is pretty terrible. We better start asking Santa for some snow or a pattern change. Something has to give sooner or later ya know. Theres a lot of things I asked for from the fat man but I doubt I'll get any of it lol. Some snow on xmas eve or xmas day would be on the top of my list haha. Thats really probly asking for to much though there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 15, 2010 Author Share Posted December 15, 2010 Something has to give sooner or later ya know. Theres a lot of things I asked for from the fat man but I doubt I'll get any of it lol. Some snow on xmas eve or xmas day would be on the top of my list haha. Thats really probly asking for to much though there Santa may be magical but I don't think he can perform miracles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joplinmet Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 You may want to look at what the pattern was last year in early-mid December. In Tulsa at least it was cold and dry... much like it is this year. Well in my area it was a great winter. I recall Tulsa getting some decent weather as well. Last year we where on a 62 day cycle. This year is much shorter with a 47 day cycle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 OK guys. I need an education here because I willingly admit I'm a novice who tinkers with all this weather model stuff. I understand we're under a strong La Nina and the winter is supposed to be warm/dry blah, blah, blah. However, the NAO and AO are currently negative which from my understanding is a good thing. Also, something about blocking up near Greenland and northwest flow, etc... So, what does all this mean? Obviously it's not a great pattern for winter weather accept it isn't blazing hot in the 60's and 70's. Apparently the long range outlook has that coming in Jan/Feb. What's the scoop? What is the best setup for snow? Negative NAO/AO? Strong southern jet? Etc... Any insight you could give would be cool just for my general learning curve. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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