MoWeatherguy Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 well man to be honest if i had to pick from something now or christmas id take a xmas storm anyday! nothing like a white xmas Yeah I agree my friend. Gimma a white Christmas and I'm a happy dude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 9, 2010 Author Share Posted December 9, 2010 yeah still looking like a non-event. Especially since all the models are shifting to a Euro track. Never ever bet against the Euro. That thing is magical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Here is a little snippet from this morning's AFD in SGF. Pretty much concurs with everything we have been seeing: AS THE LOW DEEPENS TO THE EAST...PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE LOW. THIS SNOW MAY CLIP CENTRAL MISSOURI WHICH MAY THEN RESULT IN AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW ACCUMULATION. THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A BIG SNOW PRODUCER FOR THE AREA...BUT AGAIN AN INCH OF TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI WITH A DUSTING POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA. Also noticed that the models aren't bringing the cold as strong down with the system in our area now. We should rebound quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Well now we have gone from a potential snow just a couple of days ago to not even much in the way of rainfall with the front now per the GFS. Simply amazing when you follow these models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 9, 2010 Author Share Posted December 9, 2010 Well now we have gone from a potential snow just a couple of days ago to not even much in the way of rainfall with the front now per the GFS. Simply amazing when you follow these models. yeah, went from a majority of the models showing a hit too far SE of here, to a storm over Iowa now. The Euro was the most consistent through the entire thing with showing the farther N solution except in 1 model run. There always seems to be a Day 10 fantasy storm on the Euro for here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Interesting writeup from springfields disco this evening. Still dont look like much if anything to me still. Then a waste of even colder air next week.....bleh how sad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joplinmet Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Yeah we did. NWS so screwed up on these amounts. I remember this clearly. At my house with sleet and snow we had 8". 7.5" in Joplin, they have 5 listed. Pittsburg had 9". It was a great storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joplinmet Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 NWS so screwed up on these amounts. I remember this clearly. At my house with sleet and snow we had 8". 7.5" in Joplin, they have 5 listed. Pittsburg had 9". It was a great storm. Plus acouple inches of sleet. I always get the official airport readings which is just a few miles from my house. Joplin has 33.5" of snow last winter. NWS records like 24 or something. I don't know why those numbers don't match. Also the average snowfall for Joplin over the past 50 years is 16.7". However, they have like 13" listed this year. Strange stuff, lol. To bad this system isn't working out. Check out my latest blog and long range thoughts. http://www.koamtv.com/Global/story.asp?S=13648949 Have a great evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Plus acouple inches of sleet. I always get the official airport readings which is just a few miles from my house. Joplin has 33.5" of snow last winter. NWS records like 24 or something. I don't know why those numbers don't match. Also the average snowfall for Joplin over the past 50 years is 16.7". However, they have like 13" listed this year. Strange stuff, lol. To bad this system isn't working out. Check out my latest blog and long range thoughts. http://www.koamtv.co....asp?S=13648949 Have a great evening See I knew those totals were way off thats what I said earlier as well later back on another page. That map showed a few inches at best where I lived last season and it was just wayyyy off. Seems like they screw up stuff like this often. Hell my totals for the season last year was about 30-32" i wonder what they said lol. I was in st.clair county lowry city to be exact. Anyways probly need to write this storm off for the weekend....probly flurries at best of what I see right now but Im not as good as all you guys when it comes to looking at the models and all that. Will check your page shortly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joplinmet Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 See I knew those totals were way off thats what I said earlier as well later back on another page. That map showed a few inches at best where I lived last season and it was just wayyyy off. Seems like they screw up stuff like this often. Hell my totals for the season last year was about 30-32" i wonder what they said lol. I was in st.clair county lowry city to be exact. Anyways probly need to write this storm off for the weekend....probly flurries at best of what I see right now but Im not as good as all you guys when it comes to looking at the models and all that. Will check your page shortly Yep, it is going to be a hard year. There will be a few active stretches, so we have to get some then. The part of the pattern that we are in is around October 22nd. Remember that October was very dry. However, in November we actually had above average precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 10, 2010 Author Share Posted December 10, 2010 Yep, it is going to be a hard year. There will be a few active stretches, so we have to get some then. The part of the pattern that we are in is around October 22nd. Remember that October was very dry. However, in November we actually had above average precip. Yeah it looks like there is an active stretch coming up, most of the snow looks to be just north of here though. I can hope that changes but it looks like mostly rain. Of course maybe a Roger Smith storm will happen: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/2627-get-ready-for-the-great-mwgl-storm-of-dec-19-21/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joplinmet Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Yeah it looks like there is an active stretch coming up, most of the snow looks to be just north of here though. I can hope that changes but it looks like mostly rain. Of course maybe a Roger Smith storm will happen: http://www.americanw...m-of-dec-19-21/ Yes, but that isn't taking in to account where the longwave troughs and ridges are set up. We have to get a couple decent storms this winter, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 10, 2010 Author Share Posted December 10, 2010 Yes, but that isn't taking in to account where the longwave troughs and ridges are set up. We have to get a couple decent storms this winter, right? Probably, I'm just impatient and want snow during winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B.Sebo Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Well if you want to talk extreme long range, the GFS is has shown a Christmas snow for the past two 00z runs! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 10, 2010 Author Share Posted December 10, 2010 That's a mouthful Saturday: A chance of rain before noon, then a slight chance of rain and snow between noon and 5pm, then a slight chance of snow after 5pm. Mostly cloudy, with a temperature rising to near 43 by 8am, then falling to around 30 during the remainder of the day. Wind chill values as low as 18. Southwest wind 8 to 11 mph becoming northwest between 17 and 20 mph. Winds could gust as high as 26 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Man the forecast is all over the place here we go! Now more of a snow chance up this way...says rain over to snow after noon tomorrow all the way into midnight.....Im definately not buying into that forecast at all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 11, 2010 Author Share Posted December 11, 2010 According to the 12z GFS....Looks like a SW flow developing around Day 9 until a storm kicks out of the SW. The GFS ensembles are indicating a pretty strong -AO developing a few days before this happens. As can be seen on don'ss thread: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/2882-ao-forecast-to-plunge/ The effects of a negative AO are a farther south push of cold air and storm track. Therefore this period will be interesting to watch s the cold air may be farther south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 The snow depth forecast for 18Z on December 25 from today's 06Z GFS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 11, 2010 Author Share Posted December 11, 2010 Probably won't happen, and the Euro is farther offshore with the trough out west which results in *yawn* around here Day 10ish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 I love how the forecast has been changing every few hours....i really hate it when they do that! Its so confusing to say the least. Snow chances for the evening back in forecast now again lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 11, 2010 Author Share Posted December 11, 2010 I love how the forecast has been changing every few hours....i really hate it when they do that! Its so confusing to say the least. Snow chances for the evening back in forecast now again lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Yea jomo i saw that map. Just had my first snowshower of the season. Looks like off and on stuff on the radar in those heavier bands. It didnt last long but 10 minutes but coated stuff.....ahhh finally something to get me in the holiday mood lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 11, 2010 Author Share Posted December 11, 2010 Yea jomo i saw that map. Just had my first snowshower of the season. Looks like off and on stuff on the radar in those heavier bands. It didnt last long but 10 minutes but coated stuff.....ahhh finally something to get me in the holiday mood lol Still nothing.. Bah-Humbug! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Still nothing.. Bah-Humbug! This is just a tease more then anything man lol.....your time will come at least once this season im sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 12, 2010 Author Share Posted December 12, 2010 This is just a tease more then anything man lol.....your time will come at least once this season im sure Prolly in Feb when it snows 1" and melts off an hour later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Prolly in Feb when it snows 1" and melts off an hour later. Now that would really suck....its not doing anything down there? Its been flurrying all night here. Shame its so windy it would probly be sticking but its just flying around everywhere instead...watching that blob on intellicast coming down from kc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 12, 2010 Author Share Posted December 12, 2010 Now that would really suck....its not doing anything down there? Its been flurrying all night here. Shame its so windy it would probly be sticking but its just flying around everywhere instead...watching that blob on intellicast coming down from kc Nothing at all here. 00z GFS looks crappy for the next 16 days as well. Euro is it's boss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Flurries here all evening. The wind gusts though have been very impressive. Power has flickered here a time or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Been snowing here pretty good for the past hour but nothing on the ground due to the crazy wind. I love NWS's forecast....50 percent chance of snow. Just makes me laugh a lil bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 I would pretty much call this blizzard conditions out there tonight guys. Took the dog for a walk and just got back. Had to come back home with that wind and snow blowing in my face its brutal. Snow really coming down its just whiteout out there at the moment. Ground is now covered Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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