Joplinmet Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 Yeah, The one at http://www.twisterdata.com has a quick update on the NAM when it is coming out, it's also in 3 hour increments and has the composite reflectivity. However, the NAM is kind of 'meh' as a model and I don't trust it until it's within 24-48 hours. Horrible looking eastern trough on the Euro. NW Flow is such a bore around here. Let's get to the good part of the pattern. What good part of the pattern? lol. There isn't a lot of great parts with this pattern. Next weekend will be NW flow systems, but it should dig a little more in the central plains compared to what the models are showing. So lets hope we can get some rain or something out of it. The following weekend we should have a few waves, but this pattern is about 60% NW flow which sucks. It should get a little more active around Christmas through New Years. We will enter the part of the pattern that we saw from November 5th-15th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joplinmet Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 Oh wow, I haven't been on the Twisterdata site. This is a pretty cool look to some of the models. Thanks for telling me about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 4, 2010 Author Share Posted December 4, 2010 What good part of the pattern? lol. There isn't a lot of great parts with this pattern. Next weekend will be NW flow systems, but it should dig a little more in the central plains compared to what the models are showing. So lets hope we can get some rain or something out of it. The following weekend we should have a few waves, but this pattern is about 60% NW flow which sucks. It should get a little more active around Christmas through New Years. We will enter the part of the pattern that we saw from November 5th-15th. Yeah, hopefully we can get something. I know our snowiest months are Jan/Feb typically. But by Feb the sun angle is rapidly increasing and snow tends to melt rather quickly. I would much rather get snow in Dec/Jan. Not a big fan of the ice storms during La Nina years though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 18z GFS shows possible -SN for much of OK on Tuesday into Tuesday night. 12z ECMWF has lesser QPF and farther north, with a dusting to half an inch possible for a swath from south-central KS into northeast OK and northwest AR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ozarkwx Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 JoMo - Thanks for taking the time to post that excellent compilation of model links and times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 4, 2010 Author Share Posted December 4, 2010 JoMo - Thanks for taking the time to post that excellent compilation of model links and times. Not a problem. I made it between model runs. Of course there is nothing to really watch right now anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 4, 2010 Author Share Posted December 4, 2010 Euro weeklies show the east coast is the place to be: http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/anderson/story/42498/prairies-on-eastward-looking-very-wintry-through-the-end-of-the-month.asp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 Euro weeklies show the east coast is the place to be: http://www.accuweath...f-the-month.asp Im sure my sister will be happy to hear she might get another historic winter. Man they got tons and i mean tons of snow last year back in my hometown in south jersey! They were getting nailed with one noreaster after another dumpin feet at a time. I was really jelous lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 5, 2010 Author Share Posted December 5, 2010 Vomit inducing 00z GFS. Hope things change. :-\ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Vomit inducing 00z GFS. Hope things change. :-\ lol to funny! that bad huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 5, 2010 Author Share Posted December 5, 2010 lol to funny! that bad huh? Pretty much no precip the entire 16 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Pretty much no precip the entire 16 days. Oh thats sad....hopefully that changes. Of course we know it can.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Vomit inducing 00z GFS. Hope things change. :-\ Its always a struggle for MO/AR/OK during La Ninas...especially stronger ones, generally if you do manage a major snow event it either comes late in the season as the La Nina weakens in late February or March or it comes via some sort of bizarre synoptic setup since the much needed southern branch to the jet is absent....lets take a brief look at most of the recent Ninas....07/08...one of the better ones overall, December event, 1/31 event and the early March one....08/09...a very late season event but mainly in NW OK/SW KS...05-06...the only real southern stream system came around March 25th, a 2-3 inch overnight event in OK....98-99...late season event in southern KS/north OK....99-00...great storm for OK but an atypical setup via overrunning on a SE Gulf flow over a strong high...95/96....nothing at all....88/89 late season event for W AR S/E OK and SW MO....00-01 is the only La Nina where any sort of significant activity regularly occurred and those were early in the season, also generally induced via overrunning and not by an active southern branch to the jet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 We definitely have a cold couple of days coming up. I would prefer warmer weather if it is going to be dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 5, 2010 Author Share Posted December 5, 2010 Its always a struggle for MO/AR/OK during La Ninas...especially stronger ones, generally if you do manage a major snow event it either comes late in the season as the La Nina weakens in late February or March or it comes via some sort of bizarre synoptic setup since the much needed southern branch to the jet is absent....lets take a brief look at most of the recent Ninas....07/08...one of the better ones overall, December event, 1/31 event and the early March one....08/09...a very late season event but mainly in NW OK/SW KS...05-06...the only real southern stream system came around March 25th, a 2-3 inch overnight event in OK....98-99...late season event in southern KS/north OK....99-00...great storm for OK but an atypical setup via overrunning on a SE Gulf flow over a strong high...95/96....nothing at all....88/89 late season event for W AR S/E OK and SW MO....00-01 is the only La Nina where any sort of significant activity regularly occurred and those were early in the season, also generally induced via overrunning and not by an active southern branch to the jet. It's just the persistent NW flow. Usually we can get something, but this NW flow is for the birds. 07/08 was indeed a fluke. It also has to do with how the models have been taking it away after showing something good in the long range. edit: 12z GFS (still crappy) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 5, 2010 Author Share Posted December 5, 2010 Well the 12z Euro came in with a storm around hour 156 that goes from N Central OK to Central Ark to S Illinois. Not sure about precip though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 6, 2010 Author Share Posted December 6, 2010 00z GFS shows something to watch now..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Yeah interesting solution tonite per the GFS. Looking possibly more like todays Euro solution so it may have some credence. As you say at least something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 6, 2010 Author Share Posted December 6, 2010 Yeah interesting solution tonite per the GFS. Looking possibly more like todays Euro solution so it may have some credence. As you say at least something to watch. Better than the NW flow of dry death. GGEM has a different solution tonight though. I think it shows a lot over N Missouri or something, kind of hard to tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Yeah interesting solution tonite per the GFS. Looking possibly more like todays Euro solution so it may have some credence. As you say at least something to watch. Looks like its time for uncertainties to begin lol. Last night ky3 was saying maybe snow on sunday so was NWS. Now the forecast say rain saturday maybe going over to snow on the very tail end of the storm. Still to long of a ways off for me to buy anything yet. I know how these crazy models can be within 24-36 hours before a storm. Need something though for sure to get me in that holiday spirit lol. It did get down to 13.8 here last night brrrrrr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 6, 2010 Author Share Posted December 6, 2010 Looks like its time for uncertainties to begin lol. Last night ky3 was saying maybe snow on sunday so was NWS. Now the forecast say rain saturday maybe going over to snow on the very tail end of the storm. Still to long of a ways off for me to buy anything yet. I know how these crazy models can be within 24-36 hours before a storm. Need something though for sure to get me in that holiday spirit lol. It did get down to 13.8 here last night brrrrrr Latest models all take the system well north of here. Just cold and dry long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 6, 2010 Author Share Posted December 6, 2010 Like the 18z GFS model run though Surface low tracks just off to our SE. Several of the ensemble members are interesting as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 7, 2010 Author Share Posted December 7, 2010 Hope your Hamstring gets better, Doug. So this next storm coming up that may bomb out to our east is basically the same one that bombed out over the lakes 40 some days ago? Same energy? Looks like you may get some flurries, B. Sebo. We're in business again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Yea Jomo this looks like it might have to be watched. Right now its still saying rain over to snow....50's for thursday and friday though! INSANE for december. All this cold air recently, such a waste. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 7, 2010 Author Share Posted December 7, 2010 12z runs of the models. GFS, GGEM, Ukie, all have good tracks for snow here. Euro is too far north still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 12z runs of the models. GFS, GGEM, Ukie, all have good tracks for snow here. Euro is too far north still. GGEM and GFS look really similar - changeover to snow Sat nite setup. Looks like a nice event for C MO on up thru STL. Edit: Add the JMA to the GFS camp. Euro appears to be the strong outlier here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 7, 2010 Author Share Posted December 7, 2010 GGEM and GFS look really similar - changeover to snow Sat nite setup. Looks like a nice event for C MO on up thru STL. Yep, worried that it's still a long time out and knowing our area, the low pressure may track directly over us giving us the dryslot. I think the Euro will eventually come around. This all depends on how far south the energy which hasn't been sampled yet, can dig south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Yep, worried that it's still a long time out and knowing our area, the low pressure may track directly over us giving us the dryslot. I think the Euro will eventually come around. This all depends on how far south the energy which hasn't been sampled yet, can dig south. Yeah I agree these thing sometimes dont work out too great for us in far SW MO. Hopefully we dont have dryslot issues but a track directly overhead cant be good. I just cant envision this thing digging any more south and west than what models are showing now though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 7, 2010 Author Share Posted December 7, 2010 Yeah I agree these thing sometimes dont work out too great for us in far SW MO. Hopefully we dont have dryslot issues but a track directly overhead cant be good. I just cant envision this thing digging any more south and west than what models are showing now though. I can't either, but I hope I'm wrong 1" of snow wouldn't be bad, or even flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 I can't either, but I hope I'm wrong 1" of snow wouldn't be bad, or even flurries. You know 1" may be a true bonus this winter the way things are looking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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