MoWeatherguy Posted November 27, 2010 Share Posted November 27, 2010 NAM did a pretty good job forecasting the winter side of this last system based on a comparison of the visible satellite imagery from JoMo's post above to that models depiction of snow/ice up in post #105, which was from 21 hrs out. Much better than any other model I recall seeing at least. Amounts were off some but the general idea and placement were close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 27, 2010 Author Share Posted November 27, 2010 NAM did a pretty good job forecasting the winter side of this last system based on a comparison of the visible satellite imagery from JoMo's post above to that models depiction of snow/ice up in post #105, which was from 21 hrs out. Much better than any other model I recall seeing at least. Amounts were off some but the general idea and placement were close. Yeah it did. Probably because it handles low level cold air better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted November 27, 2010 Share Posted November 27, 2010 When's our next snow storm? I'm bored. See how fickle we are? LOL Just kidding! Kinda. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 27, 2010 Author Share Posted November 27, 2010 When's our next snow storm? I'm bored. See how fickle we are? LOL Just kidding! Kinda. Day 10 (of course it seems like it always stays at Day 10) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 Day 10 (of course it seems like it always stays at Day 10) I guess that is better than nowhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 29, 2010 Author Share Posted November 29, 2010 Euro and GFS have a snow threat about 7-8 days out tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 If only the Canadian would verify we'd have ourselves something to talk about next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 30, 2010 Author Share Posted November 30, 2010 Yeah, it's still on the 12z, but it could change on any given run, some serious needle threading going on with the energy to the north of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 1, 2010 Author Share Posted December 1, 2010 Wow I can't believe the 00z GFS tonight...... Looks like it's going to have a good system going right over us and it drops south. Those in OK and AR and KS may get hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 1, 2010 Author Share Posted December 1, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 That is close enough to watch... now if we can keep that general threat area in the target zone over the next several days. These NW flow systems tend to track a little further east than forecasted if my brain serves me correctly this early in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 Further N on the 06z: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 2, 2010 Author Share Posted December 2, 2010 Maybe some flurries Mondayish but pretty much just blah. Euro has a snow threat every day at day 10, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Maybe some flurries Mondayish but pretty much just blah. Euro has a snow threat every day at day 10, lol Sounds like a boring drab winter is in store if this keeps up lol..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joplinmet Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Sounds like a boring drab winter is in store if this keeps up lol..... I do think we have potential this winter for a couple of storms. However, it is just going to be hard pressed to get much winter weather this winter. I just found this forum, very cool. Have a great day everyone. Doug Heady Chief Meteorologist KOAMTV/FOX 14 Joplin MO/Pittsuburg KS [email protected] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 2, 2010 Author Share Posted December 2, 2010 Yeah from Springfield's afternoon discussion: THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN IS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO LAST YEARS UNUSUALLY COLDWINTER. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE ANCHORS ACROSS SOUTHEASTCANADA...CREATING A NORTHWEST TRAJECTORY OVER MID AMERICA. THISWILL PROVIDE A CONTINUOUS PIPELINE OF DRY - COLD CANADIAN AIR THATSDIRECTED STRAIGHT INTO THE OZARKS. THIS PATTERN WILL ALSO SHUT DOWNANY MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO...THUS THE DRYFORECAST OVER THE NEXT SEVEN TO TEN DAYS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 2, 2010 Author Share Posted December 2, 2010 I do think we have potential this winter for a couple of storms. However, it is just going to be hard pressed to get much winter weather this winter. I just found this forum, very cool. Have a great day everyone. Doug Heady Chief Meteorologist KOAMTV/FOX 14 Joplin MO/Pittsuburg KS [email protected] Hey Doug, you still hear from Geoff Cornish? He used to post on the other weather forum when he was in the area. I noticed this form his bio and remember this day very well: http://www.wtvq.com/...am/109-gcornish His most memorable day at KOAM was Saturday, May 10th, 2008 when an EF-4 tornado passed just south of Joplin , tragically killing 24 people in a three county area. Geoff was on the air for nearly three hours while his Chief Meteorologist was storm spotting and calling reports in to the weather center. It was a day he and many others in Kansas , Missouri and Oklahoma will never forget. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joplinmet Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Hey Doug, you still hear from Geoff Cornish? He used to post on the other weather forum when he was in the area. I noticed this form his bio and remember this day very well: http://www.wtvq.com/...am/109-gcornish [/size][/font] Yes, Geoff and I stay in touch and he comes back once a year to do a lake trip. He is one of the nicest guys I have ever met. He is also one of the sharpest meteorologists around. Lexington is very lucky to have him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 I do think we have potential this winter for a couple of storms. However, it is just going to be hard pressed to get much winter weather this winter. I just found this forum, very cool. Have a great day everyone. Doug Heady Chief Meteorologist KOAMTV/FOX 14 Joplin MO/Pittsuburg KS [email protected] Welcome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 I do think we have potential this winter for a couple of storms. However, it is just going to be hard pressed to get much winter weather this winter. I just found this forum, very cool. Have a great day everyone. Doug Heady Chief Meteorologist KOAMTV/FOX 14 Joplin MO/Pittsuburg KS [email protected] Welcome to the forum doug! Its always nice to see a local met. here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 Yeah I'd be happy just seeing a couple of snowflakes walking to class Monday & Tuesday, lol. Things got even drier on the models today... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 3, 2010 Author Share Posted December 3, 2010 Yeah, it would be nice to see some snow showers or flurries, I doubt it will happen though. It would help get me in the Christmas spirit, that's for sure. I was reading your month long blog, Joplinmet. I see you are having mole problems. A year or two ago I had a similar problem. I tried the mole poison, mole traps and finally got them to leave by using the sonic mole sticks. You stick them in their tunnel and it buzzes at a set amount of time and for some reason they decided to leave after a week or so. Have not seen one since. We really need some more active weather.. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 JoMo Im with ya man thats why I wanna see some sorta snow or something to get me in that holiday mood. Im starting to feel like the scrooge right now lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joplinmet Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 It is such an small upper level wave that gets so quickly wrapped up into the eastern trough. Maybe we will see a few snow showers, we will see. If you guys remember the bomb that was in October, that part of our pattern will repeat in just under 2 weeks. The models are having a hard time picking up on it. Now the chances of this being a power house system like it was last time is about 1 and a million. However, there is hope that we could see a wet system. I would be happy with some decent rains. There just hasn't been a ton of action over the past couple of months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 It is such an small upper level wave that gets so quickly wrapped up into the eastern trough. Maybe we will see a few snow showers, we will see. If you guys remember the bomb that was in October, that part of our pattern will repeat in just under 2 weeks. The models are having a hard time picking up on it. Now the chances of this being a power house system like it was last time is about 1 and a million. However, there is hope that we could see a wet system. I would be happy with some decent rains. There just hasn't been a ton of action over the past couple of months. the repeat pattern you mentioned...is that the system the 10 day euro/ggem are hinting at? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joplinmet Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 the repeat pattern you mentioned...is that the system the 10 day euro/ggem are hinting at? Yes, that would be the system that the Euro is hinting at. This would come in next weekend. However, I think we will be hard pressed to see any snow or much of it. But at least it is right on course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 Yes, that would be the system that the Euro is hinting at. This would come in next weekend. However, I think we will be hard pressed to see any snow or much of it. But at least it is right on course. thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 3, 2010 Author Share Posted December 3, 2010 Model watching season. I've included links to some of the models and when they start and finish. All times are central time and approximate from when I remember them. 00z NAM http://www.nco.ncep....wprod/analysis/ Starts @ NCEP @ 7:45 PM I don't really pay a whole lot of attention to when it ends. Around 9-9:15ish I guess. 00z GFS http://www.nco.ncep....wprod/analysis/ Starts @ NCEP @ 9:30 PM Out to 180 hours by 10:30 PM Ends @ 10:45 PM 00Z GGEM (Canadian) (black and white maps) http://www.weatherof...t/global_e.html Not sure when it starts as I am usually looking at the GFS Ends around 11:15 PM 00z Euro http://greatlakes.sa...mouth_page.html Starts at Plymouth around 11:55 PM Can see out to 240 on: http://www.ecmwf.int.../msl_uv850_z500 Finishes around 12:50 AM Updates slowest but better maps: http://www.meteo.psu.../ecmwfloop.html 06z NAM http://www.nco.ncep....wprod/analysis/ Starts @ NCEP @ 2:45 AM I don't really pay a whole lot of attention to when it ends. 06z GFS http://www.nco.ncep....wprod/analysis/ Starts @ NCEP @ 3:30 AM Out to 180 hours by 4:30 AM Ends @ 4:45 AM 12z NAM http://www.nco.ncep....wprod/analysis/ Starts @ NCEP @ 7:45 AM I don't really pay a whole lot of attention to when it ends. 12z GFS http://www.nco.ncep....wprod/analysis/ Starts @ NCEP @ 9:30 AM Out to 180 hours by 10:30 AM Ends @ 10:45 AM 12Z GGEM (Canadian) (black and white maps) http://www.weatherof...t/global_e.html Not sure when it starts as I am usually looking at the GFS Ends around 11:15 AM 12 Euro: http://greatlakes.sa...mouth_page.html Starts at Plymouth around 11:55 AM Can see out to 240 on: http://www.ecmwf.int.../msl_uv850_z500 Finishes around 12:50 PM Updates slower but better maps to 240: http://www.meteo.psu.../ecmwfloop.html 18z NAM http://www.nco.ncep....wprod/analysis/ Starts @ NCEP @ 2:45 PM I don't really pay a whole lot of attention to when it ends. 18z GFS http://www.nco.ncep....wprod/analysis/ Starts @ NCEP @ 3:30 PM Out to 180 hours by 4:30 PM Ends @ 4:45 PM In addition I take a look at the GFS ensemble mean located here (comes out pretty quickly after the GFS finishes): http://raleighwx.ame...fsensemble.html Then I check out the individual GFS ensemble members which are located here (the 6,12,18z models all come out pretty quickly, the 00z is delayed until after the Euro finishes even): http://www.meteo.psu.../ewallmref.html The NAM seems to update quicker on: http://www.twisterdata.com/ But the GFS is much slower. Snowfall maps are located on that site as well. NAM has composite reflectivity on that site. When there is a chance of severe weather, I look at the SREF on the SPC page: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/ And the SPC WRF http://www.emc.ncep....nt4km/conus/00/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joplinmet Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 You have a great list of different models. I use the ncep models, nexlab, rap.ucar and pen states. Those are the ones that I usually look at. Most of the time it is the ncep models. They seem to come out the quickest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 3, 2010 Author Share Posted December 3, 2010 You have a great list of different models. I use the ncep models, nexlab, rap.ucar and pen states. Those are the ones that I usually look at. Most of the time it is the ncep models. They seem to come out the quickest. Yeah, The one at http://www.twisterdata.com has a quick update on the NAM when it is coming out, it's also in 3 hour increments and has the composite reflectivity. However, the NAM is kind of 'meh' as a model and I don't trust it until it's within 24-48 hours. Horrible looking eastern trough on the Euro. NW Flow is such a bore around here. Let's get to the good part of the pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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