Wx 24/7 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I just don't see many of us losing out on this one. Call me crazy, but a generalized area of light snow looks pretty likely for just about everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 A farther NW ejection of this first system (which won't bring much if any at all in accumulations) will probably cause the second system to be farther NW and the 'screw line' to be farther NW. Yeah thats already entered my mind too. Gotta think it will have some impact on the northern branch energy. Models already looking a bit wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valerie Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 jomo based on that you dont see tulsa getting much? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 All NE OK reporting stations have light snow or flurries as of 3 p.m. None being reported in WC or NW Arkansas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 9, 2011 Author Share Posted January 9, 2011 Well, cloud tops are warming over NE OK. the precip is starting to fall apart to the south of you and the system is weakening and moving away. I think you may see a dusting in the Tulsa area with this first system if you are lucky. NW Arkansas may see a little more depending on how quickly the low weakens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 All NE OK reporting stations have light snow or flurries as of 3 p.m. None being reported in WC or NW Arkansas. My brother from Fort Smith just said it started snowing there. Around 3:10 PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valerie Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 what time do yall see the 2nd system starting tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 what time do yall see the 2nd system starting tonight? From the sounds of things it will be pretty scattered throughout the nite and maybe picking up by morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 9, 2011 Author Share Posted January 9, 2011 what time do yall see the 2nd system starting tonight? You may have light snow and flurries off and on tonight and some slightly heavier light snow tomorrow morning, but the heavier snow will come tomorrow afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valerie Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 ok thanks guys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 9, 2011 Author Share Posted January 9, 2011 18z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Getting uglier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 9, 2011 Author Share Posted January 9, 2011 yep, farther NW. Joplinmet's blog from 10-20 mins ago: http://www.fox14tv.c....asp?S=13811566 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 His numbers are looking more realistic than NWS S'field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Been snowing lightly for 2 hours almost a dusting.. At least its something.more then i expected from this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valerie Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 its stopped in jenks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 His numbers are looking more realistic than NWS S'field. True, but his numbers have come up some... which I view as a good sign. While it is true the 18z model runs aren't as great as we would like to have them, I am not giving up on the 2-4" thinking for this area. Edit... NWS TSA has snowfall report of 1" 1 mile south of Ft. Smith. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 True, but his numbers have come up some... which I view as a good sign. While it is true the 18z model runs aren't as great as we would like to have them, I am not giving up on the 2-4" thinking for this area. Edit... NWS TSA has snowfall report of 1" 1 mile south of Ft. Smith. You're a diehard man. I love it.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 LOL, I just try not to ride the model waves. They are very useful tools, but you can't look at each run as an island. Watching trends is crucial... and how each model is sampling/handling the system. I believe that the trend is slightly north... but not significant enough to really cause too much alarm. I think the bigger trend seems to be less moisture. I would be more concerned if I was up in the KC area, where it appears totals may be less than originally forecasted if the models pan out. And believe me... I can be quite negative on systems... just not this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 True, but his numbers have come up some... which I view as a good sign. While it is true the 18z model runs aren't as great as we would like to have them, I am not giving up on the 2-4" thinking for this area. Edit... NWS TSA has snowfall report of 1" 1 mile south of Ft. Smith. I think I'll take the 18z run, but not for this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 9, 2011 Author Share Posted January 9, 2011 I think I'll take the 18z run, but not for this system. talking about Day 7ish GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Yeah next weekend could have some potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Entire long range doesnt look all that bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 9, 2011 Author Share Posted January 9, 2011 The 2nd storm is going to come out in two pieces, one tomorrow morning and one tomorrow afternoon/evening. The one in the afternoon/evening has a little more working for it and that's when the best snowfall for our area should occur. A weak low pressure tries to form over NW Arkansas. There's a little more RH in the snow growth layer and the coldest upper level air should be arriving as well. The one negative is the 850 tries to close off near KC at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Alot of snow on intellicast radar but man its so dry. Dewpoint here is like 5. Temp is about 27.8. Dougs call looks good tomorrow. Looking for like 3-5" up here tomorrow and tom. evening. We shall see....im so eager to see it snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valerie Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 50% wintry mix now...yikes where did this come from? i dont even want to get out in the morning theres been tons of wrecks tonight just from the dusting!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 50% wintry mix now...yikes where did this come from? i dont even want to get out in the morning theres been tons of wrecks tonight just from the dusting!! lack of moisture for snow crystal formation = freezing drizzle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Jill Gilardi (KSFX and KOLR met) is reporting snow in Harrison and Berryville, AR. 7:00 observation in Fayetteville also reporting snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Jill Gilardi (KSFX and KOLR met) is reporting snow in Harrison and Berryville, AR. 7:00 observation in Fayetteville also reporting snow! Yep. Just started in Bentonville. Radar looks like it may last a couple of hours. Fort Smith has about a dusting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 NEXT 00z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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