MoWeatherguy Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 NAM looks too warm and thus, messes with snowfall numbers via the troughiness you describe. I don't see that happening with this type of a setup. Wow even more optimism. I'll take the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Wow even more optimism. I'll take the GFS. I think it is because I am just easier to please than some around these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Well the NAM and GFS certainly arent on the same page with the southern low tonite. Was checking snow overlays for the Shreveport region (I have family in Texarkana) and there is quite a spread there. NAM projecting up to 10 inches for Texarkana but the GFS has only 1 inch. Just a crazy difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 9, 2011 Author Share Posted January 9, 2011 I think it is because I am just easier to please than some around these parts. I don't mind 1-2", but that cutoff is really close on the NAM. Any slight NW shift and it's just a Kansas into NW missouri storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I don't mind 1-2", but that cutoff is really close on the NAM. Any slight NW shift and it's just a Kansas into NW missouri storm. I think we'll see more changes tomorrow. I just dont trust any of them right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 9, 2011 Author Share Posted January 9, 2011 Euro does not sound good. (0.25" for JLN. according to Chicago Storm) From Moneyman: HR 12: LT precip in N. KS, and all of NE. LT-MOD precip in C. NE. HR 18: LT precip in very N. KS and LT-MOD precip in N. Neb. and SW Neb. LT precip in all of NE besides those areas. HR 24: LT precip in N. KS. LT-MOD precip in W and C Neb. LT precip in rest of Neb. HR 30: LT precip in C/N/W KS. LT precip in C/N/W Neb. LT-Mod precip in E Neb. HR 36: LT precip in S. KS. LT-MOD precip rest of KS. LT-Mod precip in SE Neb and W. IA. HR 42: LT precip in KS/NEB. LT-MOD precip in W. IA. Spot of LT-MOD precip in NE KS, NE Neb. HR 48: LT precip in NE/KS/MO/MN/W. WI. LT-Mod precip in W/C IA. LT precip in rest of IA as well. HR 54: LT-MOD precip in W/C Neb. LT precip in E. KS/E. NEB/MN/IA/WI/IL/S.IND HR 60: LT precip in MN/IA/WI/IL/IN/OH. LT-MOD precip in E/NE MO/ and W. IL Also, HPC is going with the GFS/Euro. 06z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valerie Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 morning everyone! so my NWS is going with an inch for tulsa so jealous of my family in wichita! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valerie Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 there is a piece of energy west of tulsa currently on radr might that be snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Slight improvement on the 12z NAM. Looks like the main show will be late tomorrow afternoon into the evening hours for most of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 12z NAM snow: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 NAM overlay. Looks like a 1-2 event NW AR and a 2-4 across NE OK into SW MO. http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 9, 2011 Author Share Posted January 9, 2011 yep a general 2-4" except NW Ark gets screwed. best snow also moved north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 yep a general 2-4" except NW Ark gets screwed. best snow also moved north yea man looks like the heaviest snows setup just north of where i am....springfield thinks highway 54 on north which is about 6 miles from me here lol. Watches are all around us today. Heck ill be happy with a few inches though for sure. I just hope we dont get screwed cause the cutoff line looks so rapid and quick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
springfieldnewsnut Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 OK, I don't want to have negative thoughts, but does anyone have any concern for the air being too dry? That's always seems to be a hurdle in SW MO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Still optimistic here... Newsnut, I would be concerned about dry air if it weren't that these types of waves usually overperform based on model expectations AND that the dry air is already starting to be eroded by "virga snow" across OK and far SW MO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 9, 2011 Author Share Posted January 9, 2011 Hirez (WRF-NMM otherwise known as the NAM) looks like a squall line Total precip: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 9, 2011 Author Share Posted January 9, 2011 OK, I don't want to have negative thoughts, but does anyone have any concern for the air being too dry? That's always seems to be a hurdle in SW MO. yeah I just noticed that's really dry air, probably the cause of lower totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Well I'll take what we can get out of this one. Euro looking threatening days 6/7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Tulsa, Ponca City, and Muskogee, OK all reporting flurries or light snow as of 2 p.m. Interesting radar trends as well... movement seems a bit more northerly than I was expecting. Hmm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 9, 2011 Author Share Posted January 9, 2011 Headin north on the 18z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 9, 2011 Author Share Posted January 9, 2011 Tulsa, Ponca City, and Muskogee, OK all reporting flurries or light snow as of 2 p.m. Interesting radar trends as well... movement seems a bit more northerly than I was expecting. Hmm... wow, you're right, I just looked at the radar. It's snowing with a dewpoint of 8 in Tulsa, heh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
springfieldnewsnut Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I was just noticing the SW system on the radar. I agree — it looks like it's coming farther north than I thought it would. I just hope its track doesn't somehow affect the NW system's track... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Is that an observation report out of Tulsa - snow w/ a dewpoint of 8? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Is that an observation report out of Tulsa - snow w/ a dewpoint of 8? That is the official observation from Tulsa as of 2 p.m. No surprise but SGF going with a WWA for the entire area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Tulsa just issued a WWA for all of NE OK and NW Ark as well. Just issued at 2:39 PM. EDIT: 1-3 inches possible from 6AM Monday to Midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Sounds like a WWA is forthcoming out of S'field for their entire area. Sorry 24/7 guess you were editing as I was relaying the same info. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valerie Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 yes folks in jenks out my front door it is snowing very lite but you dont hav to squint to see it. its pretty steady too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 yes folks in jenks out my front door it is snowing very lite but you dont hav to squint to see it. its pretty steady too. And there is our weather watcher confirmation. Hopefully there's more to come for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valerie Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 And there is our weather watcher confirmation. Hopefully there's more to come for you. yes am still hoping for a shift. ETA: we are now a WWA!!!!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 9, 2011 Author Share Posted January 9, 2011 A farther NW ejection of this first system (which won't bring much if any at all in accumulations) will probably cause the second system to be farther NW and the 'screw line' to be farther NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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