SnowGoose69 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 01/28/2000 is the #1 analog showing up on the upper charts at 48 hours...this event looks similar with an initial strong 500 low tracking over the region followed by a bowling ball type upper low and disturbance the day after...in this case the initial event will be over TX/AR as opposed to 2000 when it was over central OK...the 2nd wave appears stronger this time and further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valerie Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 80% for monday i equate that to mean more snow hope so. it was 60%. okie333 im just down the highway in jenks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GoldenEagle Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 My county is under a Winter Storm Warning now, which surprises me since they were backing off for a while. We could get 2-4 inches, according to the warning statement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valerie Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 My county is under a Winter Storm Warning now, which surprises me since they were backing off for a while. We could get 2-4 inches, according to the warning statement. and where are you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 9, 2011 Author Share Posted January 9, 2011 Through 24 on the 00z NAM, the 1st systems precip is making a little bit more headway north into Arkansas and far E OK. Our area from storm #1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Got a question for someone smarter than me. Was just looking at the radar on the 1st storm developing down in Texas. Rain is breaking out along the TX/Mexico west of San Antonio. Also some radar echos already into northern TX and southern OK and west of OKC. I'm guessing this part in OK isn't hitting the ground yet. So, here's the question, is this developing right about where the models have been showing? Does it appear to be any further north? I'm surprised to see the radar echos west of OKC already. Satellite imagery seems to be moving it more northeast at this point. Maybe that's wishful thinking on my part. Anyone have thoughts on this? EDIT: Thanks JoMo. I was typing this when you posted the NAM map. Maybe I'm onto something. Still doesn't look like it will make it far enough north to effect me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 9, 2011 Author Share Posted January 9, 2011 Well the NAM has given me a headache tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valerie Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 hate it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Getting worse for SW MO. What are we looking at now an inch maybe? Lets see if the GFS stays steady now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 9, 2011 Author Share Posted January 9, 2011 Getting worse for SW MO. What are we looking at now an inch maybe? Lets see if the GFS stays steady now. yeah what I think it's doing is setting up a trough over SW MO. the easterly flow goes up and over that trough and deposits the snow on the western side of the trough. The trough then pivots basically over W MO/ E KS before it heads NE as the system develops which puts us in kind of a screw zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 We can only hope its wrong. It may be the 1st to catch onto this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
springfieldnewsnut Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Come on GFS, please! NAM Ugh.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Looks like the GFS may have shifted N a bit but no big changes from 12z IMO. Looks better than the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 9, 2011 Author Share Posted January 9, 2011 yeah, GFS is much better than the NAM for snow lovers, lol (just watched the Jets beat the Colts, amazing game) NAM snow overlays.... that's a pretty tight gradient http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Yeah was a heckuva game. Was hoping the Colts would pull it out though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Doug's forecast looking pretty good right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 9, 2011 Author Share Posted January 9, 2011 yeah his forecast is looking pretty good. Any small deviation north or south is going to mean a lot though. There's actually a lot of precip on radar right now, too bad it's too dry. There's your ice @ 180 Mo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 System looking colder and more interesting for next weekend per 0z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Yeah been thinking we would get a decent ice storm this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 9, 2011 Author Share Posted January 9, 2011 RGEM @ 48 (GGEM's NAM) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Long range looks decent tonite. I'm really curious about this upcoming system. Not the type of setup you see every winter so wondering how correctly it is even modeled right now. I went back and looked at the analog storm SnowGoose mentioned a few posts ago and found where most all of S MO and N AR got a general 2-4 in snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Bit of a shift N from the 12z GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 9, 2011 Author Share Posted January 9, 2011 ENS Mean..... This is too close and is gonna end up bad :-| Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Come on 24/7 we need ur optimism here tonite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Here I am!!! I am still optimistic that a decent snow will set up across the region. I still think 2-4" is a good bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 9, 2011 Author Share Posted January 9, 2011 Yeah was a heckuva game. Was hoping the Colts would pull it out though. 2 'upset' victories today. Hoping the Chiefs can pull off the upset tomorrow but my confidence is about as high as us getting a foot of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Here I am!!! I am still optimistic that a decent snow will set up across the region. I still think 2-4" is a good bet. I hope you're right. I'm thinking a bit less but you never know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 9, 2011 Author Share Posted January 9, 2011 GFS overlays updated http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 2 'upset' victories today. Hoping the Chiefs can pull off the upset tomorrow but my confidence is about as high as us getting a foot of snow. Yeah me too lol. Not getting a good feeling about either one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 NAM looks too warm and thus, messes with snowfall numbers via the troughiness you describe. I don't see that happening with this type of a setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.