JoMo Posted January 8, 2011 Author Share Posted January 8, 2011 Euro came in a big weaker: Chicago Storm says: "0.22" for JLN." Moneyman's play by play: HR 24: LT precip in most of Neb. HR 30: LT-MOD precip in C/SW Neb. LT precip in rest of Neb. HR 36: LT-MOD precip in same areas as 30. LT precip in SE Neb. HR 42: LT-MOD precip in E. Neb. LT precip in IA/MN/S. MO. HR 48: LT-MOD precip in S. Neb, most of Kansas. LT precip in IA/MN/most of Kansas/Neb, and W. MO. HR 54: LT-MOD precip in E. Neb., E. Kansas, W. IA. LT precip in MN/IA//KA/W and NW MO. HR 60: LT-MOD precip in W. IA. Extreme NW Mizz. and extreme E. Neb. LT precip in MN/IA/W. WI/MO. HR 66: LT-MOD precip in W. MO. LT precip in MN/IA/WI/IL/E. NEB/E. KS HR 72: LT-MOD precip in NE/E MO (near STL due NE from there) LT precip in MN/IA/WI/IL/IN/TN/OH. HR 78: LT-MOD precip in E. IND/S and SW Ohio, N. Kentucky. LT precip in MN/IA/WI/ILL/MO/SW MI. HR 84: LT-MOD precip in most of Ohio. LT precip in E. MN/E. IA/WI/IL/IN/MI/Ken. HR 90: LT-MOD precip in NE Ohio. LT precip in E. WI/MI/E. IND/OH/Ken. HR 96: LT precip in OH. Big east coast storm. Sub 990 about 50 miles off shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 8, 2011 Author Share Posted January 8, 2011 any hope for tulsa? you could always hope for a south shift the next couple of runs. You still may get an inch or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Disappointing out of the Euro. FWIW Bastardi says the GFS too strung out and weak, ride the GGEM and NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 8, 2011 Author Share Posted January 8, 2011 Disappointing out of the Euro. FWIW Bastardi says the GFS too strung out and weak, ride the GGEM and NAM. well crap, the GFS and Euro are going to be correct then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 well crap, the GFS and Euro are going to be correct then. yeah prolly lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valerie Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 you could always hope for a south shift the next couple of runs. You still may get an inch or two. ok am hoping! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackjack123 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Maybe parts of central Kansas will get some snow accumulation Sunday and Monday. I have seen almost slim to none this year. It is pretty watching it fall but I hate travelling in it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Lets see springfield right now this 4-5" up here. wxcaster maps show similiar nam shows 8" gfs shows 6". I also see winter storm watches are out for 2 counties north of here in my old town of clinton northwards. Had some snow flurries this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ukrocks Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 NAM at 60 hours looks extremely juicy for you guys! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 8, 2011 Author Share Posted January 8, 2011 18z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Not liking 18z quite as well as 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 8, 2011 Author Share Posted January 8, 2011 Not liking 18z quite as well as 12z. yeah it's still doing the neg tilt thing and it came in warmer again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joplinmet Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Here is my latest thoughts everyone and amounts. http://www.koamtv.com/Global/story.asp?S=13807967 Doug Heady Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 8, 2011 Author Share Posted January 8, 2011 Here is my latest thoughts everyone and amounts. http://www.koamtv.co....asp?S=13807967 Doug Heady I hope you bust low! Looks like a good forecast though. This is a clipperish type system so the cutoff is going to be pretty extreme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 8, 2011 Author Share Posted January 8, 2011 Springfield is going with some Winter Storm Watches but I don't know the zone codes. My guess would be Bourbon county Kansas on east from there. (along and north) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joplinmet Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I hope you bust low! Looks like a good forecast though. This is a clipperish type system so the cutoff is going to be pretty extreme. Ya, I am being a little conservative. If it looks the same on the 00z runs tonight, I will up amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joplinmet Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 The ratios should be about 13 or 15:1 which is good. So I will play conservative today, and up amounts tonight if it looks the same. I am getting excited. Damn I love weather way to much, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 The ratios should be about 13 or 15:1 which is good. So I will play conservative today, and up amounts tonight if it looks the same. I am getting excited. Damn I love weather way to much, lol. I think we are all a bunch of junkies right along with ya doug lol. Good forecast also on your blog type thing. Just wish my memory was better so i could learn more and soak up some info and become as good as some of you guys are with this stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joplinmet Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I think we are all a bunch of junkies right along with ya doug lol. Good forecast also on your blog type thing. Just wish my memory was better so i could learn more and soak up some info and become as good as some of you guys are with this stuff You can always ask me questions. Also there are a lot of people on here that know their stuff. If you love the weather and learn about it you can be a great forecaster even if your not a meteorologist. I have noticed a lot of sharp people on here. This is a fun place to chat on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 8, 2011 Author Share Posted January 8, 2011 Ya, I am being a little conservative. If it looks the same on the 00z runs tonight, I will up amounts. There's probably going to be a really sharp cutoff. I don't like these NW or clipperish type events at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valerie Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 looking more positive now 3pm disco now saying 1-3" for us ill take it and hope for more! no thats near the border grrrr! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Joplinmet - Do you read much into 18z model runs or do you mainly go with the other 2 runs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Is it me or does the 2nd system look drier on the 18z gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 8, 2011 Author Share Posted January 8, 2011 Tulsa's latest snow amount forecast. GFS didn't look like it changed that much. I didn't look at it that closely though since I'm watching the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Still a pretty sharp cutoff - scary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Tulsa's latest snow amount forecast. GFS didn't look like it changed that much. I didn't look at it that closely though since I'm watching the game. Atleast there is snow on the map.. lol I believe it when I see it. Lol the grey has been replaced by green thats the first time in a few runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Winter storm watch now extended and starts one county to my northwest(st.clair) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 8, 2011 Author Share Posted January 8, 2011 GFS is very icy/snowy long range, it was much warmer on the 12z so both are probably wrong. For Kansas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 To me this system has a huge bust potential either way... it may be a scenario when an advisory is upgraded to a warning in places, while others are in an advisory and wind up with little to nothing. Oh the joys of forecasting! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Something tells me this is one we need to keep our eyes on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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