NwWhiteOut Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Looks like things could get dicey here in the ozarks tomorrow night maybe? I was reading springfields afternoon disco and it sounds like they are concerned for severe weather tomorrow night and then maybe it going over to freezing rain/snow mix through thursday morning. The graphics on their site shows snow mix i guess it is for up this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 23, 2010 Author Share Posted November 23, 2010 Looks like things could get dicey here in the ozarks tomorrow night maybe? I was reading springfields afternoon disco and it sounds like they are concerned for severe weather tomorrow night and then maybe it going over to freezing rain/snow mix through thursday morning. The graphics on their site shows snow mix i guess it is for up this way. Yeah there may be a changeover before precip ends depending on how quickly the front moves in. Looking at the next system coming up after this one... follows a similiar track NW of here......... It's never good when all the major models basically agree on a storm this far out. :-\ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B.Sebo Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 GFS says snow flurries here on Thanksgiving afternoon, it has for the last three runs and i still don't buy it. Looking at the soundings, that warm nose on up is just too strong. I do think though that with the low cloud deck it won't get out of the 30's here and those strong N winds are going to be quite awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 23, 2010 Author Share Posted November 23, 2010 GFS says snow flurries here on Thanksgiving afternoon, it has for the last three runs and i still don't buy it. Looking at the soundings, that warm nose on up is just too strong. I do think though that with the low cloud deck it won't get out of the 30's here and those strong N winds are going to be quite awesome. What do you think about Severe on Weds? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 24, 2010 Author Share Posted November 24, 2010 Doug Heady's winter forecast. KOAM news: Snow below normal, Temps below normal. (He seems to think NW flow events make up a majority of this winter) More info at 10 PM newscast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 Doug Heady's winter forecast. KOAM news: Snow below normal, Temps below normal. (He seems to think NW flow events make up a majority of this winter) More info at 10 PM newscast. I guess its just my opinion and all but I rarely ever believe any of these long range forecasts....nothing against him I just dont buy into them. Who knows time will tell though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 24, 2010 Author Share Posted November 24, 2010 Doug's call: Slightly Below temps Below average Precip 3-5 winter events 1 ice event. 9-14" of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 24, 2010 Author Share Posted November 24, 2010 Watch out for some big time storms tomorrow peoples. :-| Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 Watch out for some big time storms tomorrow peoples. :-| Yea its gonna be all or nothing u watch....it could get really dicey i think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 6Z GFS looks interesting temp-wise (high of 14 on 12/8, low of 2 on 12/9 for Tulsa): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B.Sebo Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 I think somewhere in our area, we will see some TOR warnings today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 24, 2010 Author Share Posted November 24, 2010 Oh, there will be warnings in the Springfield area, you can almost bet on that. Also, nice HWO: WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED... THE LIGHTNING RISK IS SIGNIFICANT. THE THUNDERSTORM WIND RISK IS ELEVATED FOR WIND GUSTS OVER 60 MPH. THE HAIL RISK IS ELEVATED FOR HAIL TO THE SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS. THE TORNADO RISK IS ELEVATED. THE NON THUNDERSTORM WIND RISK IS LIMITED. THE FREEZING RAIN RISK IS ELEVATED. THE EXTREME COLD RISK IS LIMITED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 24, 2010 Author Share Posted November 24, 2010 PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO A LIGHT WINTRY MIX...WITH MINOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR. ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI. THE ICE ACCUMULATION WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO ELEVATED OBJECTS INCLUDING BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. MINOR SLEET AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO A LIGHT WINTRY MIX...WITH MINOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR. ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI. THE ICE ACCUMULATION WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO ELEVATED OBJECTS INCLUDING BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. MINOR SLEET AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. The forecast is confusing today from springfields write up....well to me it is anyhow. They talking lingo i dont understand. I remember yesterday them saying the storms could fall apart cause the shear might be to bad and tear the cells to nothing,,,,basically along those lines anyhow. Looks like it could get dicey up here later tonight then tomorrow for you guys south of 44....maybe that forecast has changed though cause it was this morning when I read that. Hell Im getting closer to you guys if anything....started living in clinton now im all the way down here in humansville lol. Probly only 40 miles north of springfield now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 Hey all. So glad I finally found you. I got registered here just in time for a wild next 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 Tornado Watch just posted until 10 p.m. Probabilities aren't all that impressive from the SPC, but they tend to not verify as well during the winter months from my perspective. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 Decent, but somewhat broad couplet on the easternmost supercell near Collins. First TOR of the day out of SGF issued a couple minutes ago on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 Just had a tornado warning go off here....recorded all that action in hd on camcorder lol. That gets the blood pumpin for sure. Them clouds were pretty nasty lookin to Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 SGF starting to let the TOR warnings fly. Cells are starting to look much better on radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 SGF starting to let the TOR warnings fly. Cells are starting to look much better on radar. Looks like the northeasternmost sliver of the warm sector is where the action will be at. Surface winds have already veered SW of a confluence line that's pushed through OK/KS into SW MO, but the instability drops off very quickly into C MO. More than likely, additional storms moving out of OK/KS will become supercellular for a time over the same area of MO through the course of the afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 24, 2010 Author Share Posted November 24, 2010 Rapid development of new cells in NE OK. Craig county, couple trying to pop in Rogers and Mayes as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 Darn and here goes tornado warning number 2 and sirens going off again here. Weather never ceases to amaze me outwest here wow...supposedly the last one doppler radar indicated a tornado 3 miles east of a town not far from here called WEAUBLEAU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 24, 2010 Author Share Posted November 24, 2010 Darn and here goes tornado warning number 2 and sirens going off again here. Weather never ceases to amaze me outwest here wow...supposedly the last one doppler radar indicated a tornado 3 miles east of a town not far from here called WEAUBLEAU You can keep that up there. I dunno though, the storms in NE OK down here are getting better organized so I may have to contend with severe as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 You can keep that up there. I dunno though, the storms in NE OK down here are getting better organized so I may have to contend with severe as well. lol well if you dont hear back from me then you know something happened. Hard to believe its gonna go from this to 20's later tonight and maybe some zr and sleet. Its 67 out there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 24, 2010 Author Share Posted November 24, 2010 lol well if you dont hear back from me then you know something happened. Hard to believe its gonna go from this to 20's later tonight and maybe some zr and sleet. Its 67 out there! Look directly to your north or northeast probably by now. Very strong sig of a tornado on radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 Look directly to your north or northeast probably by now. Very strong sig of a tornado on radar. damn trees block my view mostly to the northeast....it does look bad to the north though man! Im watching the radar on intellicast and theres another nasty looking cell heading right for me from the sw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 24, 2010 Author Share Posted November 24, 2010 damn trees block my view mostly to the northeast....it does look bad to the north though man! Im watching the radar on intellicast and theres another nasty looking cell heading right for me from the sw yeah that storm currently near Stockton needs watched as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 Storms that are rotating aren't even in the area of best instability. As the batch out of Oklahoma heads into SW MO we should see more warnings I would suspect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 yeah that storm currently near Stockton needs watched as well. Yea thats the one hitting me now i believe....idk im all mixed up here lol. It looks like one giant black ufo hovering over the house here lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 24, 2010 Author Share Posted November 24, 2010 Storms that are rotating aren't even in the area of best instability. As the batch out of Oklahoma heads into SW MO we should see more warnings I would suspect. Except those aren't rotating at all. Looks like a prefrontal wind shift line because winds are out of the SW behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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