JoMo Posted January 8, 2011 Author Share Posted January 8, 2011 There would probably be some pretty good snow rates since the NAM is much colder this run. It's the NAM though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Yes that has happened and I think we began seeing that N trend on models today. I'm hoping that some correction is in order on modeling tonite and tomorrow. Good step on the NAM tonite. I think it will be equally important to see what the Euro and Canadian show tonight. It appeared from reading many of the NWS discussions this afternoon that those 2 models are further north on the 1st system. Not really sure what they show for the 2nd. JoMo always keeps us posted on these 2 models. I think the Euro doesn't run until around midnight. Looking forward to the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Accum precip 18z NAM (top) vs 0z (bottom): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 8, 2011 Author Share Posted January 8, 2011 NAM would probably produce more snow a bit farther south into NW Arkansas if it wasn't warming it up for some reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 NAM would probably produce more snow a bit farther south into NW Arkansas if it wasn't warming it up for some reason. Yeah was curious about that. That amt of liquid should correlate to more snow than what the snow map shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 This just posted by Norman, OK NWS. .UPDATE...NO CHANGES TO THE CURRENT PERIOD. A COLD FRONT ORIENTEDNORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...WAS PASSING THROUGH SOUTHERN AND WESTERNOKLAHOMA AT MID EVENING. STEADILY COOLER LOW LEVEL AIR WILL FILTERINTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY.OUR MAIN EFFORT THIS EVENING HAS BEEN TO UPDATE OUR WINTER WEATHERMESSAGE ON THE WEB AND WITH OUR SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT ANDHAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. ALTHOUGH LARGE SCALE FEATURES AND OUROVERALL MESSAGE HAS SEEN LITTLE CHANGE...WE ARE BECOMING MORECONCERNED ABOUT SNOWFALL IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA ON SUNDAY. THE 12AND 18Z GFS RUNS FELL IN LINE WITH THE SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLE...ANDSEEM TO REPRESENT A PRETTY GOOD CONSENSUS FORECAST. THE 18Z NAMWAS AN OUTLIER WITH THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THE00Z NAM HAS COME BACK IN LINE WITH THE OTHER MODELS.TAKING THE CONSENSUS APPROACH...IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE COLDENOUGH WET BULB PROFILES AND ADEQUATE MID LEVEL SATURATION/LIFTINGTO SUPPORT MAINLY SNOW DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. WHILE MOST OF THATSNOW WILL BE LIGHT...AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAY BE SLIGHTLYABOVE FREEZING...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT SLIGHTLY HEAVIER SNOWWILL OCCUR IN FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...CLOSER TO THE TRACK OF THEUPPER TROUGH AND TO THE SOURCE OF GULF MOISTURE. OUR THINKINGMATCHES THE HPC WWD GUIDANCE GRIDS...AND WE UPDATED SNOWACCUMULATION GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS THINKING...WITH PERHAPS 1 TO 3INCHES OF SNOW...ESPECIALLY ON GRASSY SURFACES...IN SOUTHEASTOKLAHOMA. A LIGHT DUSTING COULD OCCUR BACK TOWARD I-35 AND UP TOI-40 EAST OF OKLAHOMA CITY. AS THE PREVIOUS SHIFT MENTIONED... THEECMWF IS A BIT BETTER DEVELOPED WITH ITS DIFLUENT JET STRUCTUREAND NEGATIVE TILT MID LEVEL TROUGH...WHICH COULD RESULT IN BUMPINGPRECIP AMOUNTS UPWARD. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW APPEARSPOSSIBLE ON SUNDAY...AND MINIMAL WINTER STORM CRITERIA OF 4 INCHESIN 12 HOURS...CANNOT BE RULED OUT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joplinmet Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Don't worry about the temperatures guys. This is a shallow cold deck of air moving in. The models are producing the temps a little to warm. If the southern sections get some sleet, who cares it is something better than what we have had. I think it looks like mainly snow and you have to remember arctic is pushing in with this. The main thing to watch by far is where is the 850mb circulation going to be. If it tracks in southern KS into southern MO we are all in good shape to get some light accums. Doug Heady Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 8, 2011 Author Share Posted January 8, 2011 Snow overlays just updated from the NAM. http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Snow overlays just updated from the NAM. http://wxcaster.com/...ow-overlays.htm gfs is painting 5 here nam on the wxcaster shows 7 or 8 i cant see the color difference in those grays. Its a tiny blob of it sitting right over me lol. Im in the northwestern tippy top tip of polk county...haha try saying that 3 times fast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 gfs is painting 5 here nam on the wxcaster shows 7 or 8 i cant see the color difference in those grays. Its a tiny blob of it sitting right over me lol. Im in the northwestern tippy top tip of polk county...haha try saying that 3 times fast I would say you are in better shape than most on this thread tonite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 8, 2011 Author Share Posted January 8, 2011 I think we're going to see a slight southward adjustment on the GFS. Edit: Eh little bit more precip into NE OK at 72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I would say you are in better shape than most on this thread tonite. You know I hope we can all see an inch or 2 from this not just myself getting the most. I never think like that ya know. Im not the typical IMBY person lol. So hopefully all of us in this area of the forum get something white on the ground for once this season. Looks like my darn sister is in for more again....shes allready gotten about 22" so far this season! Unheard of back there in my home state for the second season in a row! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 You know I hope we can all see an inch or 2 from this not just myself getting the most. I never think like that ya know. Im not the typical IMBY person lol. So hopefully all of us in this area of the forum get something white on the ground for once this season. Looks like my darn sister is in for more again....shes allready gotten about 22" so far this season! Unheard of back there in my home state for the second season in a row! I'm the same way man. Dont take my remark as accusing you of bragging or anything because that's not what I was trying to do. Was just trying to say you are sitting in a pretty good spot being farther north the way you are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I'm the same way man. Dont take my remark as accusing you of bragging or anything because that's not what I was trying to do. Was just trying to say you are sitting in a pretty good spot being farther north the way you are. Oh no man i didnt take it that way sorry. I just meant id like us all to see some snow ya know. Words are hard to put into text sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Oh no man i didnt take it that way sorry. I just meant id like us all to see some snow ya know. Words are hard to put into text sometimes. OK good. You're right its hard to read between the lines with just a stretch of words huh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 8, 2011 Author Share Posted January 8, 2011 GFS is just overall colder than the NAM: Snow map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 LOL im right in the screw zone.. no shock there. GFS is just overall colder than the NAM: Snow map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 8, 2011 Author Share Posted January 8, 2011 LOL im right in the screw zone.. no shock there. Don't ever move to Joplin, thanks. I dunno, it may still trend south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Ur luck never ceases to amaze me Spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 8, 2011 Author Share Posted January 8, 2011 Talk about livin on the edge: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 8, 2011 Author Share Posted January 8, 2011 GGEM has the best precip from basically the KS/OK border over to around Joplin and NW from there. This is a shift SE from it's 12z run. GFS Ensemble mean @ 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Models seem to be honing in on the E KS, WestCentral MO area as the best area for precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 8, 2011 Author Share Posted January 8, 2011 yeah it is. Going to be interesting to see if it comes farther south and if there will be any banding or other features that may enhance snowfall rates that the global models don't really pick up on like the NAM and it's hires counterparts. 11:40 the Euro starts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Is the snow depth chart for the NAM and GFS set on a typical 10:1 ratio or how is it figured??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 8, 2011 Author Share Posted January 8, 2011 Is the snow depth chart for the NAM and GFS set on a typical 10:1 ratio or how is it figured??? yeah, it is just 10:1 probably plus temps or something. It's whatever the model thinks is on the ground or going to be on the ground. Euro has initialized... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Ok, thanks. So accums would be a bit higher than what the maps show if that is to be calculated. Excellent!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 8, 2011 Author Share Posted January 8, 2011 GFS radar overlays updated: http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays.htm It doesn't look like there's much change on the Euro. Not sure about QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 8, 2011 Author Share Posted January 8, 2011 Chicago Storm says that there's 0.25-0.50 of precip across our area. Not sure about certain spots but it would probably look somewhat like the GGEM image rockchalk posted. "0.27" for JLN" Moneyman gives more details for Missouri and on eastward: HR 60: LT precip in S. and W. Mizzou. HR 66: LT precip in W. Mizzou HR 72: LT precip in most of Mizz with a spot of LT-MOD precip in NW Mizz. HR 78: LT precip in most of Mizz with LT-MOD precip in W. and SW Mizz. HR 84: LT precip in most of Mizz with LT-MOD precip in C and E Mizz. HR 90: LT precip in all of Mizz. LT-MOD precip in S. IND and Ohio. LT precip in WI/IL/IA as well. HR 96: LT precip in C. and E. Mizz/ all of WI/IL/IN with another spot of LT-MOD precip in E. IND and OH For Kansas: For Kansas in general: HR 42: LT precip in NW Kansas. HR 48: LT precip in W. Kansas HR 54: LT precip in all of Kansas except far E. part HR 60: LT-MOD precip in NW and C Kansas. LT precip elsewhere. HR 66: LT-MOD precip in N.Kansas. LT precip elsewhere. HR 72: LT precip in Kansas. LT-MOD precip in EXTREME NE Kansas, and extreme S. Kansas. HR 78: LT precip in Kansas. LT-MOD precip in extreme SE Kansas. HR 84: LT precip in E. Kansas. Precip ends elsewhere HR 90: Precip ends everywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 NWS SGF this morning is a little bit more aggressive on snowfall totals for the area: 2-4" south of I-44 with 4-5" north. I think this looks good considering the snow ratios, which is something I have been harping on. I am looking closely at the 12z run because the first system will be better sampled now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valerie Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 this is getting depressing now just 0.8 snow for tulsa what happened? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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