JoMo Posted January 7, 2011 Author Share Posted January 7, 2011 Time to root for the ECMWF!!! From what I recall it had a much better handle on the East Coast Christmas blizzard. The GFS bounced back and forth with that storm but the Euro stayed pretty much steady (with the exception of a run here and there). Yesterday Henry Margusity from Accuweather said he ignores the Euro because it's crap. "Throw it out!", he said. Who knows... The roller coaster ride continues. I'm too emotional fragile for this... 12z model runs tomorrow morning should capture the southern low as it will be over land by then. Any shifts will probably occur then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I bet by 00z it will fall to the darkside as well.. Time to root for the ECMWF!!! From what I recall it had a much better handle on the East Coast Christmas blizzard. The GFS bounced back and forth with that storm but the Euro stayed pretty much steady (with the exception of a run here and there). Yesterday Henry Margusity from Accuweather said he ignores the Euro because it's crap. "Throw it out!", he said. Who knows... The roller coaster ride continues. I'm too emotional fragile for this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Yea if things dont start looking better by 12z.. Its a pretty safe bet were going to be screwed. 12z model runs tomorrow morning should capture the southern low as it will be over land by then. Any shifts will probably occur then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 7, 2011 Author Share Posted January 7, 2011 Out to 54 there has been a slight NW shift compared to the 12z on the GFS on the first storm. Maybe some light precip farther NW than the 12z GFS on the first storm. Out to 78, 2nd storm looks pretty similar to the 12z other than producing slightly less QPF over Kansas. Out to 84, less QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Out to 54 there has been a slight NW shift compared to the 12z on the GFS on the first storm. Yeah and I bet there will be a shift NW with the 2nd system too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 It looks OK out to 78 then it seems to weaken and fall apart quickly. What's up with that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 7, 2011 Author Share Posted January 7, 2011 It looks OK out to 78 then it seems to weaken and fall apart quickly. What's up with that? I don't know, but I blame Spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 GFS moved better precip ever so slightly NW on the first system.. SO close.. yet so far. The 2nd system just dies.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 .. Yes I did it.. I had to take away some the energy from the 2nd system to inhance the first to get the "snow flurries" up this way......lol.. anyway..if only I would get that good ole` NW trend started on the first system.. I don't know, but I blame Spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 7, 2011 Author Share Posted January 7, 2011 Kind of concerned about a surface trough forming, that's basically what the NAM is showing as well as developing a low. The GFS has a closed 850 low at 72 hours across the OK/TX Panhandle area, it takes this E and weakens it at 78. Snow map is better for everyone generally though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 7, 2011 Author Share Posted January 7, 2011 18z ensembles are either along or slightly farther NW with the precip on the first system when compared to the operational run: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valerie Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 dont you dare take any snow away from tulsa! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 dont you dare take any snow away from tulsa! Agreed 100% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 8, 2011 Author Share Posted January 8, 2011 Through 24, NAM is slightly farther N with the SW system and slightly farther S with the NW system. If you have dyslexia I feel sorry for you. Through 54, it's going to miss SE again. There's more precip building into W Kansas at this time frame tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valerie Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 so what does that mean for tulsa? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 00z NAM= Non Event for Oklahoma. so what does that mean for tulsa? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 so what does that mean for tulsa? A trend in the right direction from past NAM runs... but the 1" and 3" lines are still bunched together at the KS border... hopefully the GFS will be better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Indeed this run of the NAM is slighty better then the last few. But still unless you live along the KS border a dusting would be in the cards per this run. A trend in the right direction from past NAM runs... but the 1" and 3" lines are still bunched together at the KS border... hopefully the GFS will be better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 8, 2011 Author Share Posted January 8, 2011 The first system is going to miss, but the second system looks interesting. It's all going to come down to the speed and orientation of the trough out west. NAM has backed off on surface temps as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
minninni31 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Well, maybe here in bartlesvill(N TULSA) will receive at least 2" of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 If this was to happen the WSWs from LZK would bust big time. The first system is going to miss, but the second system looks interesting. It's all going to come down to the speed and orientation of the trough out west. NAM has backed off on surface temps as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 8, 2011 Author Share Posted January 8, 2011 I think you can see the 700 MB front type feature here: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 8, 2011 Author Share Posted January 8, 2011 If this was to happen the WSWs from LZK would bust big time. It snows a few inches down there and a lot of snow across NE TX, N Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia. NAM just melts it off by the time that map is valid for. NAM warms it up, and it's been doing some funky stuff with temps. I think I'm probably 8 degrees colder this run at this hour compared to 18z: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
springfieldnewsnut Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I just hope there aren't any dry holes that develop — like they always like to do right over Springfield, MO. I just wonder how different tonight's 0z and tomorrow's 12z will be. All I know is we need some freakin' snow around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Were almost to the NAM's 'better' range.. but not yet.. TSA said in their afternoon disco that it was to far south.. on the first system.. we'll see... I guess we can wait for the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I think this is defin a step in the right direction on the 0z NAM tonite. Not for the southern low, as I never felt that one would yield much at all for most of us in this region, but for the northern branch wave. There appears to be less ridging out in front of this wave when compared to earlier runs today, allowing for more of an E-SE movement of the precip field. Hope the trend continues. I'm still holding out hope that this feature will overperform, as these systems sometimes do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
springfieldnewsnut Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 If memory serves, don't the storms typically trend north of where the models depict them a few days out? There might be a stupid dry region smack right between the SW and NW system (right over SW MO). I HOPE NOT! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Yea ive seem them do that many times. I hope were all not in some kind of dry hell in between. But I am by far in the worst area.. right smack between both systems. If memory serves, don't the storms typically trend north of where the models depict them a few days out? There might be a stupid dry region smack right between the SW and NW system (right over SW MO). I HOPE NOT! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 If memory serves, don't the storms typically trend north of where the models depict them a few days out? There might be a stupid dry region smack right between the SW and NW system (right over SW MO). I HOPE NOT! Yes that has happened and I think we began seeing that N trend on models today. I'm hoping that some correction is in order on modeling tonite and tomorrow. Good step on the NAM tonite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I think this is defin a step in the right direction on the 0z NAM tonite. Not for the southern low, as I never felt that one would yield much at all for most of us in this region, but for the northern branch wave. There appears to be less ridging out in front of this wave when compared to earlier runs today, allowing for more of an E-SE movement of the precip field. Hope the trend continues. I'm still holding out hope that this feature will overperform, as these systems sometimes do. Yea man your exactly right to.....its these small systems that overperform...most of the time anyhow lol. Ive seen times when springfield has said a 50 ercent chance of snow and i got an inch or 2! You just never know out here. Another thing to watch out for here is what i call the donut hole effect lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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