JoMo Posted January 7, 2011 Author Share Posted January 7, 2011 GFS ensemble mean (smoothed so you can't really tell exact precip amounts and features very well, but you can still see some ensemble members are probably farther N with storm 1) Euro starts in 30 mins or. 72 96 108 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Euro starts in 30 mins or. 0.10-0.25" for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 7, 2011 Author Share Posted January 7, 2011 0.10-0.25" for the area. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 0.10-0.25" for the area. Thanks. 0.21" for JLN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 7, 2011 Author Share Posted January 7, 2011 Pretty similar to last nights run on the GFS, only there is a slight northward shift of the second storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 yeah this is looking like a very minimal event here. NAM looks like it wants to be more north with the best precip as well at h84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 That's ugly. One to the south and one to the north. Just like we thought. Stuck right in the middle. Hopefully this will change again but it seems to be trending against us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 7, 2011 Author Share Posted January 7, 2011 yeah this is looking like a very minimal event here. NAM looks like it wants to be more north with the best precip as well at h84. GGEM farther north as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Hopefully I get my dusting at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 7, 2011 Author Share Posted January 7, 2011 Yeah, Tulsa is cutting back on the totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GoldenEagle Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 The Special Weather statement has been removed from my area, Conway, AR. It does not like it will amount to much for us, unless there is a shift . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 7, 2011 Author Share Posted January 7, 2011 The Special Weather statement has been removed from my area, Conway, AR. It does not like it will amount to much for us, unless there is a shift . yeah both systems should be fully sampled by tomorrow morning, any shifts will occur with that, unless the Euro latches on to something in 20 mins or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 7, 2011 Author Share Posted January 7, 2011 I'd take some P001 cause that's about as good as it gets for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Damn this stinks lol. South miss then a north miss. We just cannot win. Springfields writeup thinks it will snow with a general 1-3" and local ammounts to 4. Not that I really trust them much but thats their thinking. Hell id be happy with an inch at this point the way this winter is going....NO MORE LANINA's plz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 7, 2011 Author Share Posted January 7, 2011 Damn this stinks lol. South miss then a north miss. We just cannot win. Springfields writeup thinks it will snow with a general 1-3" and local ammounts to 4. Not that I really trust them much but thats their thinking. Hell id be happy with an inch at this point the way this winter is going....NO MORE LANINA's plz you're actually in a lot better position because you are farther north. I'd be sweating bullets if I were in Arkansas, Oklahoma, or far SW MO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 So much for really cold temps after the middle of next week per the 12z GFS. What happened to all of our arctic air? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 7, 2011 Author Share Posted January 7, 2011 So much for really cold temps after the middle of next week per the 12z GFS. What happened to all of our arctic air? Canadian authorities stopped it at the border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Canadian authorities stopped it at the border. lmao good one! oh and im not that much further north jomo. But i guess every mile further north matters sometimes with these weird systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 7, 2011 Author Share Posted January 7, 2011 Euro does not look good at all unless you are N Missouri I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 2 systems miss me.. how am I not surprised? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 You all are really negative. The only person with a right to be negative is Spot. Still think a general 1-3" looks good. I don't see any real rounds of heavy snow but good chances for snow over a period of time will add up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 7, 2011 Author Share Posted January 7, 2011 Guess the Euro does throw some precip back up this way with the first system according to Springfield: MODELS DIFFER WITH THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE PRECIP WITH THE GFS KEEPING THE BULK OF THE PRECIP TO THE SOUTH WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF DOES PRODUCE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW INTO FAR SOUTHERN MO SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. FOLLOWED MORE CLOSELY WITH THE PREVIOUS FCST AND THE GFS BUT TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. Also 2nd system: USING A RELATIVELY HIGH SNOW:LIQUID RATIO OF 15:1...GRIDS REFLECT GENERAL AMTS OF 1-4 INCHES WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER THE FAR NW CWFA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 18z NAM= Bare Ground for most of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Guess the Euro does throw some precip back up this way with the first system according to Springfield: MODELS DIFFER WITH THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE PRECIP WITH THE GFS KEEPING THE BULK OF THE PRECIP TO THE SOUTH WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF DOES PRODUCE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW INTO FAR SOUTHERN MO SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. FOLLOWED MORE CLOSELY WITH THE PREVIOUS FCST AND THE GFS BUT TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. Also 2nd system: USING A RELATIVELY HIGH SNOW:LIQUID RATIO OF 15:1...GRIDS REFLECT GENERAL AMTS OF 1-4 INCHES WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER THE FAR NW CWFA. I wonder if it throws anything back here as well? If so it would be the only model doing so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 7, 2011 Author Share Posted January 7, 2011 18z NAM= Bare Ground for most of us. yeah it's wanting to pop a surface low just N of Joplin. It's actually stacking the lows just to our north. Some of the SREF members show this as well and develop some pretty heavy precip out in front of it........ all to our north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 7, 2011 Author Share Posted January 7, 2011 84 hour NAM, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Pure Evil... 84 hour NAM, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 TSA... A ray of hope for Oklahoma? Favors Euro?....... .DISCUSSION... WINTRY WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE AREA WILL BE HIT BY A ONE-TWO PUNCH OF STORMS. THE FIRST STORM IS NOW LURKING OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS WITH THIS SYSTEM... THE NAM SEEMS TO BE TOO FAR SOUTH AND TOO WARM. I EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION TO START ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE FORM OF A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW. THIS MIXTURE WILL CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW SUNDAY MORNING AS COLD AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE REGION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. CURRENTLY LOOKING AT 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 WITH LESSER AMOUNTS NORTH OF I-40. IF THE ECMWF PANS OUT...SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL BE HIGHER EVERYWHERE. THE SNOWFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL COME TO AN END SUNDAY NIGHT. STORM #2...WILL AFFECT MAINLY NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA MONDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CURRENTLY IT LOOKS LIKE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 412. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF BY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. WILL NOT ISSUE ANY TYPE OF WATCHES AT THIS TIME BUT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES OR EVEN WINTER STORM WARNINGS WILL BE NEEDED AS WE MOVE CLOSER TO THE EVENT TIME. ANOTHER MAJOR CONCERN WILL BE THE BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES THAT ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY. SINGLE DIGIT READINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TEENS ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS. WIND CHILL VALUES BELOW ZERO WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A NORTHERLY WIND OF 5 TO 10 MPH EXPECTED. WILL KEEP THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE REIGNS SUPREME WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TAKING PLACE LATE IN THE WEEK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 7, 2011 Author Share Posted January 7, 2011 I wonder if it throws anything back here as well? If so it would be the only model doing so. (both on the 1st system) Norman, OK THE 12Z EC MODEL IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FA ON SUNDAY WHICH WOULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. And from Tulsa: CURRENTLY LOOKING AT 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 WITH LESSER AMOUNTS NORTH OF I-40. IF THE ECMWF PANS OUT...SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL BE HIGHER EVERYWHERE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Time to root for the ECMWF!!! From what I recall it had a much better handle on the East Coast Christmas blizzard. The GFS bounced back and forth with that storm but the Euro stayed pretty much steady (with the exception of a run here and there). Yesterday Henry Margusity from Accuweather said he ignores the Euro because it's crap. "Throw it out!", he said. Who knows... The roller coaster ride continues. I'm too emotional fragile for this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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