MoWeatherguy Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 What's the best scenario for us in all this? Obviously we would prefer the 1st storm track further north. However, that is starting to seem less likely. Sounds like this "polar vortex" over the Great Lakes may force that storm too far south. Thoughts on this??? I've also read that a couple of the models are trying to phase the 2 storms together. What are the possibilities of this and is that a good thing? What's the impact if that happens? I'm concerned that the 1st storm is the big one and it will take all of the gulf moisture with it and the 2nd won't be near as strong with just some leftover moisture. I did see the snowfall ratios could be as high as 18:1 which would help push snow totals higher. I like learning about all this stuff so thanks to anyone who jumps in with their thoughts... Well I'm certainly no met and somebody like JoMo can address your questions better than I. But the way I see this is that a better phase would certainly improve our snow chances and amounts as you could have a larger wound up storm vs 2 smaller scale systems. But it would have to phase fairly quickly west of us to reach us at this latitude. I think its becoming more clear that the southern storm will miss us to the S so we are at the mercy of the northern stream. I dont think the 1st storm would rob the moisture of the 2nd one because normally these northern stream clippers carry their own band of moisture. Not sure about that though. I'm reading in some other threads that some mets believe the GFS is still underdone on its output with this northern wave and sometimes in fact they do overperform. And with the arctic air coming in I would bet snow ratios would be more in the 15:1 ratio if not better. Anyway, just my 2 cents here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 6, 2011 Author Share Posted January 6, 2011 Basically what MO said Also, the first storm doesn't hurt and actually may help somewhat as it draws moisture up and around it. The 2nd storm being stronger keeps the mid level winds from the SE which creates a big fetch of moisture around that low instead of bringing NW winds behind the low which would pull in drier air like most systems do. There also appears to be some kind of 850 MB 'low' feature that tracks across OK into Missouri Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 6, 2011 Author Share Posted January 6, 2011 I'd guess based on these crappy graphics that the Euro is pretty similar to the GFS. No idea about precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Thanks Mo and JoMo for your insight!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Tulsa NWS just updated the Hazardous Weather Outlook: EXTENDED DISCUSSION... A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH TEXAS AND LOUISIANA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. AREAS OF RAIN WILL LIKELY SPREAD OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS ON SUNDAY. ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO SNOW OVER THESE AREAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IF THIS TRANSITION OCCURS EARLY ENOUGH...ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES WOULD BE LIKELY. A SECONDARY SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY. AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM AS IT DIVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. AS A RESULT...AREAS OF SNOW WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA EARLY MONDAY MORNING...SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIKELY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40 WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS LIKELY TO OCCUR IN AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF TULSA. DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA WITH VALUES FALLING BELOW ZERO. VERY COLD CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THROUGH MID WEEK AS THE ARCTIC AIR MASS CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR ZERO WOULD BE LIKELY OVER ANY SNOW COVERED AREAS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 6, 2011 Author Share Posted January 6, 2011 yup, here's their forecast. The area across the south could have a LOT more snow if the Euro is right with the first storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 My guess is the Euro looks more like the GFS now. The new JMA starting to look like the old GGEM (lol) stronger and further north with the second system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 6, 2011 Author Share Posted January 6, 2011 Clown map through 120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 6, 2011 Author Share Posted January 6, 2011 My guess is the Euro looks more like the GFS now. The new JMA starting to look like the old GGEM (lol) stronger and further north with the second system. well knowing this area, it would not shock me if it snows to our south and our north and we get nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 JMA at 120 is looking nice. http://grib2.com/jma/CONUS_JMA_1000-500_SLPTHKPRP_120HR.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 well knowing this area, it would not shock me if it snows to our south and our north and we get nothing. That might very well happen with the 1st one hitting S AR hard and then the clipper will prolly end up NE of here getting STL again. Our day will come - I think.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 6, 2011 Author Share Posted January 6, 2011 I actually see the screaming man face in this: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 JMA at 120 is looking nice. http://grib2.com/jma...HKPRP_120HR.gif Only if the JMA could score a coup on this one but not likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 6, 2011 Author Share Posted January 6, 2011 18z NAM is coming in somewhat different.... Looks like it jumped north or something. It may be trying to develop a trough back across OK. NAM snowfall through 84 with just the first system: (it probably continues after this) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Prolly just the NAM doing it's thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 6, 2011 Author Share Posted January 6, 2011 Prolly just the NAM doing it's thing. Probably. It's also digging the NW system in farther west and is stronger with the winds on the back side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 18z rolling out. Not seeing any big changes thru h48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Trying to slow down and dig the energy out west a bit more by h96. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 6, 2011 Author Share Posted January 6, 2011 Heaviest QPF shifted a bit farther north this run. There is a bigger area of it though, but it looks like areas along Joplin and NW of here would see the brunt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Just noticed that. It appears total QPF is around the same for this area as a result of it showing more precip in here from the southern low, starting sometime on Sunday now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 6, 2011 Author Share Posted January 6, 2011 yeah, Spot may get screwed this run. :-p 18z Snow map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Yep its a bad run for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 6, 2011 Author Share Posted January 6, 2011 Yep its a bad run for me. Give it another day or two and it may be bad runs for all of us. This thing will probably end up in Minnesota like everything else this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I'm trying to stay positive since this is our best chance for snow (at least so far). It looks like both 18z NAM and GFS bring the southern storm a little further north with the precip. Still not anything great, but a step in the right direction. The last 4 runs of the GFS, since 18z yesterday, have each been stronger than the previous with storm #2 from the NW. The 6+ amounts in central KS just showed up on the 12z run today. It looked to me like the 18z run shifted the heavier band slightly east towards Wichita. Still not great for SW MO and NW Ark but hopefully a step in the right direction. OK, that's all the positivity I have for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joplinmet Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I really don't think it looks to bad. We know this will be a light event as this is a very disorganized system. If we can't form an 850mb low it will be a 1-2" storm. Yes the short wave is a little farther north on the last run, but I am not to concerned about it. This wave has to wrap into the first initial wave. So with that thinking, if the first wave goes farther north, then the Monday wave will as well. But one of them should give us some light snow. I would be very happy with a 1-2" snow event. Lets hope we can get it. Doug Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joplinmet Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Also I hope you guys are all doing great. I got so busy with the holidays, I haven't been on here in a couple weeks. Hope you all had a great holiday season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 7, 2011 Author Share Posted January 7, 2011 I really don't think it looks to bad. We know this will be a light event as this is a very disorganized system. If we can't form an 850mb low it will be a 1-2" storm. Yes the short wave is a little farther north on the last run, but I am not to concerned about it. This wave has to wrap into the first initial wave. So with that thinking, if the first wave goes farther north, then the Monday wave will as well. But one of them should give us some light snow. I would be very happy with a 1-2" snow event. Lets hope we can get it. Doug My main worry is that the first system misses south and the second system misses north. So it snows in say central Ark and NW Missouri but just flurries in between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joplinmet Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 My main worry is that the first system misses south and the second system misses north. So it snows in say central Ark and NW Missouri but just flurries in between. Ya, that would suck. Hopefully that won't happen. These two systems should become one storm as they push east. If that occurs, it won't allow the second system to go to far to the north. But you know how it is around here and especially this year. This is such a bad winter for us that I would be pretty happy with anything that made the ground white, lol. Lets see what the models trend with. Last time we had this system in our pattern, it did track well north of us. However, we didn't have the first system to drawl it farther south. Let hope and pray we get something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 7, 2011 Author Share Posted January 7, 2011 Well the 00z NAM is out to 3, away we go.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Ya, that would suck. Hopefully that won't happen. These two systems should become one storm as they push east. If that occurs, it won't allow the second system to go to far to the north. But you know how it is around here and especially this year. This is such a bad winter for us that I would be pretty happy with anything that made the ground white, lol. Lets see what the models trend with. Last time we had this system in our pattern, it did track well north of us. However, we didn't have the first system to drawl it farther south. Let hope and pray we get something. Do you live in Joplin? I know some folks down in Springfield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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