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NE OK/ NW AR/ SE KS/ SW MO Winter 2010


JoMo

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Yeah bye-bye to the sw system. Just curious now what the northern stream has in mind.

Light snow. Probably a 1-3, maybe 2-4 incher as of this run.

There is more phasing going on this run though with the first low.

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Ill 3rd that ill take anything at this point also. Hell the way this winter is going so far its gonna be the least snowiest one i have ever seen. If this keeps up ill be ready for spring lol. These lanina years suck? I get lost on the lanino lanina crap....whats our best snows come from usually? lanino? And yea i know other factors play in as well

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Ill 3rd that ill take anything at this point also. Hell the way this winter is going so far its gonna be the least snowiest one i have ever seen. If this keeps up ill be ready for spring lol. These lanina years suck? I get lost on the lanino lanina crap....whats our best snows come from usually? lanino? And yea i know other factors play in as well

La Nada (Neutral) is our best snow, followed by El Nino followed by La Nina, but a lot of other factors come into play as we see with the way this year is going.

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la nada lol....is that a real term or just a jomo term haha? guess i was partially right...shocked i remembered lol

real term I guess, I didn't make it up. I don't think it's a scientific term or anything.

Euro is a bit farther north... Little Rock would get a huge winter storm this run.

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real term I guess, I didn't make it up. I don't think it's a scientific term or anything.

Euro is a bit farther north... Little Rock would get a huge winter storm this run.

you guess lol? yea go figure places that shouldnt or hardly get snow get it huh.....oh well what can you do. Still some time i guess right. Whats the worst winter you ever seen jomo? least ammount of snow? this would be it for me so far lol

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you guess lol? yea go figure places that shouldnt or hardly get snow get it huh.....oh well what can you do. Still some time i guess right. Whats the worst winter you ever seen jomo? least ammount of snow? this would be it for me so far lol

I don't have any idea as I don't really pay attention to climatology stats stuff.

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Well the 06z GFS came in a little wetter especially across Kansas. Dry air eats away at some of the snow across MO early on so totals aren't as high there.

It also doesn't have that storm trying to develop over the NW which holds the next front up (it eventually does at 192). That leads to it being colder. Another system causes some more light snow around Day 8 or so.

I'm also fairly certain "Day after Tomorrow" is happening at the end of the run..... Anyway, here's the snow map for the first 2 systems:

GFS_3_2011010606_F126_SNOWIN_SURFACE.png

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What's the best scenario for us in all this? Obviously we would prefer the 1st storm track further north. However, that is starting to seem less likely. Sounds like this "polar vortex" over the Great Lakes may force that storm too far south. Thoughts on this???

I've also read that a couple of the models are trying to phase the 2 storms together. What are the possibilities of this and is that a good thing? What's the impact if that happens?

I'm concerned that the 1st storm is the big one and it will take all of the gulf moisture with it and the 2nd won't be near as strong with just some leftover moisture. I did see the snowfall ratios could be as high as 18:1 which would help push snow totals higher.

I like learning about all this stuff so thanks to anyone who jumps in with their thoughts...

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DDC's morning discussion provides some great insight as to why the Canadian (GGEM) model is considered an outlier with the second system:

"A LEAD UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AHEAD OF THE

NORTHERN BRANCH JET OVER THE WEEKEND. THE SOUTHERN UPPER LOW WILL

ACTUALLY NOT BE ALL THAT DETRIMENTAL TO AVAILABLE MOISTURE...AS LOW

LEVEL TRAJECTORIES WILL MOST LIKELY BECOME PULLED NORTHWARD...THEN

NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE CIRCULATION UNTIL BECOMING INFLUENCED BY

THE LEE TROUGH PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN BRANCH JET.

A DEEP FETCH OF COOL, MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY BECOME

REALIZED IN THE FORM OF LOW STRATUS BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY

MORNING. AS THE UPPER JET STREAK APPROACHES COLORADO 00Z

MONDAY...FRONTOGENESIS WILL INCREASE IN THE LOWER-MID TROPOSPHERE

WITH AN APPRECIABLE MID LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT. MID LEVEL PV

ADVECTION INDUCING FRONTOGENESIS WILL MOST LIKELY BE MAXIMIZED

ACROSS MUCH OF THE DDC FA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF

MONDAY. THE 00Z ECMWF RUN SUGGESTS A BIT MORE ENERGETIC JET STREAK

AND PV ANOMALY ACROSS KANSAS WITH THIS EVENT, AND AS A RESULT,

YIELDS SLIGHTLY GREATER QPF VALUES. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE

CANADIAN GEM KEEPS THE BRUNT OF THE BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT

NORTHEAST OF THE DDC FA AND MAINTAINS ONLY WEAK TO MODEST H7

FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS LATE SUNDAY, AND BY SUNDAY

NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY, HAS ALL THE H7 LIFT AND MOISTURE SHUNTED

WELL EAST OF THE DDC FA. WHILE THIS VIEW SHOULD BE RESPECTED, IT

DOES NOT FIT IN WITH THE GFS/ECMWF DETERMINISTIC COMPROMISE. A

GFS/ECMWF DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION COMPROMISE WOULD ALLOW FOR A

WIDESPREAD AREA OF 2 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE UPPER ENVELOPE OF POSSIBLE SNOWFALL

WITH THIS STORM WOULD BE 5 TO 8 INCHES SHOULD THE SYSTEM BE COLDER,

SLOWS DOWN A BIT MORE, AND A MORE AGGRESSIVE LOWER-MID TROPOSPHERIC

RESPONSE TO THE JET STREAK DYNAMICS.

THE ECMWF-HIRES MODEL SHOWS A MORE REALISTIC REPRESENTATION OF THE

MSLP FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE ARCTIC AIR INTRUSION SLATED TO PUSH

THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING."

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