springfieldnewsnut Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I can't wait until Friday's runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Models tend to be underdoing the Pacific moisture. Noticed Ron Hearst mentioned that yesterday and again this evening during his weathercast on KY3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 6, 2011 Author Share Posted January 6, 2011 Well if the NAM is correct (haha) the southern low may be a bit slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Well if the NAM is correct (haha) the southern low may be a bit slower. If? I thought the NAM was the god of 72-84 hour forecasting! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 6, 2011 Author Share Posted January 6, 2011 And the GFS is a miss to the south like the 12z run on the first system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Yeah bye-bye to the sw system. Just curious now what the northern stream has in mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 6, 2011 Author Share Posted January 6, 2011 Yeah bye-bye to the sw system. Just curious now what the northern stream has in mind. Light snow. Probably a 1-3, maybe 2-4 incher as of this run. There is more phasing going on this run though with the first low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 More phasing and this could turn into a 3-6 type event. Total QPF in the .25-.50 range now areawide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I wonder what snow ratios will look like with this system. They would seem to be greater than 10:1 wouldn't you think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Major changes by h168 in the upper air pattern as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I wonder what snow ratios will look like with this system. They would seem to be greater than 10:1 wouldn't you think? I'm certainly not an expert on this but I would think it would be greater than the standard 10:1 with this arctic air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 6, 2011 Author Share Posted January 6, 2011 Snowfall map: (Atlanta gets nailed) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Amazing in a yr in which Atlanta is supposed to be under the seige of a powerful ridge ala LaNina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 6, 2011 Author Share Posted January 6, 2011 yup, GGEM is pretty much the same for our area I guess. who uses the metric system for precip measurement anyway :-p Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 yup, GGEM is pretty much the same for our area I guess. who uses the metric system for precip measurement anyway :-p yeah best I can tell on the B&W GGEM maps it still insists the northern stream clipper will have minimal impact on our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 6, 2011 Author Share Posted January 6, 2011 00z Ensemble mean @ 96 would indicate it still has some members with a farther N solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Hey, I'll take a 2-4" snow. That would help to drop the bottom out of temps by midweek, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Still 4-5 days out on this so anything is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Hey, I'll take a 2-4" snow. That would help to drop the bottom out of temps by midweek, too. I'm with you 24/7. I'll take anything at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Ill 3rd that ill take anything at this point also. Hell the way this winter is going so far its gonna be the least snowiest one i have ever seen. If this keeps up ill be ready for spring lol. These lanina years suck? I get lost on the lanino lanina crap....whats our best snows come from usually? lanino? And yea i know other factors play in as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 6, 2011 Author Share Posted January 6, 2011 Ill 3rd that ill take anything at this point also. Hell the way this winter is going so far its gonna be the least snowiest one i have ever seen. If this keeps up ill be ready for spring lol. These lanina years suck? I get lost on the lanino lanina crap....whats our best snows come from usually? lanino? And yea i know other factors play in as well La Nada (Neutral) is our best snow, followed by El Nino followed by La Nina, but a lot of other factors come into play as we see with the way this year is going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 La Nada (Neutral) is our best snow, followed by El Nino followed by La Nina, but a lot of other factors come into play as we see with the way this year is going. la nada lol....is that a real term or just a jomo term haha? guess i was partially right...shocked i remembered lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 6, 2011 Author Share Posted January 6, 2011 la nada lol....is that a real term or just a jomo term haha? guess i was partially right...shocked i remembered lol real term I guess, I didn't make it up. I don't think it's a scientific term or anything. Euro is a bit farther north... Little Rock would get a huge winter storm this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 real term I guess, I didn't make it up. I don't think it's a scientific term or anything. Euro is a bit farther north... Little Rock would get a huge winter storm this run. you guess lol? yea go figure places that shouldnt or hardly get snow get it huh.....oh well what can you do. Still some time i guess right. Whats the worst winter you ever seen jomo? least ammount of snow? this would be it for me so far lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 6, 2011 Author Share Posted January 6, 2011 you guess lol? yea go figure places that shouldnt or hardly get snow get it huh.....oh well what can you do. Still some time i guess right. Whats the worst winter you ever seen jomo? least ammount of snow? this would be it for me so far lol I don't have any idea as I don't really pay attention to climatology stats stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 6, 2011 Author Share Posted January 6, 2011 Well the 06z GFS came in a little wetter especially across Kansas. Dry air eats away at some of the snow across MO early on so totals aren't as high there. It also doesn't have that storm trying to develop over the NW which holds the next front up (it eventually does at 192). That leads to it being colder. Another system causes some more light snow around Day 8 or so. I'm also fairly certain "Day after Tomorrow" is happening at the end of the run..... Anyway, here's the snow map for the first 2 systems: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 What's the best scenario for us in all this? Obviously we would prefer the 1st storm track further north. However, that is starting to seem less likely. Sounds like this "polar vortex" over the Great Lakes may force that storm too far south. Thoughts on this??? I've also read that a couple of the models are trying to phase the 2 storms together. What are the possibilities of this and is that a good thing? What's the impact if that happens? I'm concerned that the 1st storm is the big one and it will take all of the gulf moisture with it and the 2nd won't be near as strong with just some leftover moisture. I did see the snowfall ratios could be as high as 18:1 which would help push snow totals higher. I like learning about all this stuff so thanks to anyone who jumps in with their thoughts... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 12Z GFS still showing some snow in the whole area. 1st system a bit futher north maybe. 6 hours until it changes again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 12z snow map. Heavier totals over KS once again. Dry air seems to be working against a lot of MO. GGEM starting to come more in line with GFS - much weaker than its previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 DDC's morning discussion provides some great insight as to why the Canadian (GGEM) model is considered an outlier with the second system: "A LEAD UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN BRANCH JET OVER THE WEEKEND. THE SOUTHERN UPPER LOW WILL ACTUALLY NOT BE ALL THAT DETRIMENTAL TO AVAILABLE MOISTURE...AS LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES WILL MOST LIKELY BECOME PULLED NORTHWARD...THEN NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE CIRCULATION UNTIL BECOMING INFLUENCED BY THE LEE TROUGH PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN BRANCH JET. A DEEP FETCH OF COOL, MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY BECOME REALIZED IN THE FORM OF LOW STRATUS BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY MORNING. AS THE UPPER JET STREAK APPROACHES COLORADO 00Z MONDAY...FRONTOGENESIS WILL INCREASE IN THE LOWER-MID TROPOSPHERE WITH AN APPRECIABLE MID LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT. MID LEVEL PV ADVECTION INDUCING FRONTOGENESIS WILL MOST LIKELY BE MAXIMIZED ACROSS MUCH OF THE DDC FA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY. THE 00Z ECMWF RUN SUGGESTS A BIT MORE ENERGETIC JET STREAK AND PV ANOMALY ACROSS KANSAS WITH THIS EVENT, AND AS A RESULT, YIELDS SLIGHTLY GREATER QPF VALUES. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE CANADIAN GEM KEEPS THE BRUNT OF THE BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT NORTHEAST OF THE DDC FA AND MAINTAINS ONLY WEAK TO MODEST H7 FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS LATE SUNDAY, AND BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY, HAS ALL THE H7 LIFT AND MOISTURE SHUNTED WELL EAST OF THE DDC FA. WHILE THIS VIEW SHOULD BE RESPECTED, IT DOES NOT FIT IN WITH THE GFS/ECMWF DETERMINISTIC COMPROMISE. A GFS/ECMWF DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION COMPROMISE WOULD ALLOW FOR A WIDESPREAD AREA OF 2 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE UPPER ENVELOPE OF POSSIBLE SNOWFALL WITH THIS STORM WOULD BE 5 TO 8 INCHES SHOULD THE SYSTEM BE COLDER, SLOWS DOWN A BIT MORE, AND A MORE AGGRESSIVE LOWER-MID TROPOSPHERIC RESPONSE TO THE JET STREAK DYNAMICS. THE ECMWF-HIRES MODEL SHOWS A MORE REALISTIC REPRESENTATION OF THE MSLP FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE ARCTIC AIR INTRUSION SLATED TO PUSH THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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