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NE OK/ NW AR/ SE KS/ SW MO Winter 2010


JoMo

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12z GFS update: Suppression reigns supreme as the upper level energy over the lakes continues to kill off our SW system, leaving us with only possible remnants of energy flowing down on the northern branch. Models seem to be converging on this scenario for early next week. Liquid QPF continues to show in the .2-.4 range, with all of that being in the form of snow. I'm also noticing the GFS is starting to back off some of the extreme cold for this part of the country as well for later next week. Looking pretty typical for January IMO. Updated snow map from 12z GFS:

post-310-0-84263900-1294246938.png

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12z GFS update: Suppression reigns supreme as the upper level energy over the lakes continues to kill off our SW system, leaving us with only possible remnants of energy flowing down on the northern branch. Models seem to be converging on this scenario for early next week. Liquid QPF continues to show in the .2-.4 range, with all of that being in the form of snow. I'm also noticing the GFS is starting to back off some of the extreme cold for this part of the country as well for later next week. Looking pretty typical for January IMO. Updated snow map from 12z GFS:

EDIT: Euro probably looks like the GFS on the impending storm.

yeah, it's pretty much just wait and see, it does look like there is a plunge of cold temps but a system develops over the NW or something in the long range.

there's another system at 192 on a lot of the ensembles:

f192.gif

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First storm trying to come back a bit north according to the 18z GFS. NW Arkansas may get some snow this run from that. It all depends on what happens with that vortex over the Great Lakes. If it stays there, it's going to end up farther south, if it moves out of the way then it may tend to come back farther north.

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This run is much better all the way around. It also holds the cold air in place at H228+ and brings another storm in next weekend. 12z pushed the cold air out much quicker. Let's hope the 00z run keeps this trend and not be similar to the 12z!

yeah, I don't think the arctic air would just go away like on the 12z GFS.

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