JoMo Posted January 4, 2011 Author Share Posted January 4, 2011 Looks like the first storm is too warm, too far s, some rain for OK/AR, maybe S MO. Then some light snow with the 2nd system through 144. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Well, the southern system won't be on shore until Fri morning. Wichita expects that the NW system will slow down and dig a bit more compared to what the models show. 20 mins until 18z GFS shows us back in the snow. Appears to be digging a bit more now on the 18z @ h126 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 4, 2011 Author Share Posted January 4, 2011 yeah light snow with the trough. Time for some new solutions tonight. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 yeah light snow with the trough. Time for some new solutions tonight. lol Yeah I've seen enough of that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 4, 2011 Author Share Posted January 4, 2011 Yeah I've seen enough of that run. Well it wasn't terrible. I mean light snow for awhile wouldn't be bad and it wasn't the GGEM rainstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 H240 to 264 doesn't look too bad. Still shows our revolving 10-days-out snowstorm. It's like the models show snow up until days 8 or so then it disappears. Uuggghhh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Well it wasn't terrible. I mean light snow for awhile wouldn't be bad and it wasn't the GGEM rainstorm. Total QPF would appear to be in the .25-.50 range in the cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 4, 2011 Author Share Posted January 4, 2011 H240 to 264 doesn't look too bad. Still shows our revolving 10-days-out snowstorm. It's like the models show snow up until days 8 or so then it disappears. Uuggghhh... yeah, not only that but it looks more impressive due to the truncation (larger resolution) that occurs at 192. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 4, 2011 Author Share Posted January 4, 2011 Total QPF would appear to be in the .25-.50 range in the cold air. It's going to be interesting to see if the cold air comes in faster considering Arctic airmasses are typically handled poorly by the models. Also the ratios with whatever moisture we do get. May be a couple more tenths after this but Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 While the pattern keeps flipping back and forth with some of the details, the overall setup still looks conducive for a winter weather event here next week. Let's not get too distraught yet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 My bet is on more suppression on both the GFS and GGEM at 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 5, 2011 Author Share Posted January 5, 2011 My bet is on more suppression on both the GFS and GGEM at 0z. I think so too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I think so too. Hopefully not too extreme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 5, 2011 Author Share Posted January 5, 2011 Hopefully not too extreme. Colder through 90 compared to the 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 GFS already looking much colder thru 72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 A guy has to work hard to stay ahead of you JoMo lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 5, 2011 Author Share Posted January 5, 2011 this runs going Euro with the first SW. Gonna be way south. Probably even farther south than the 12z Euro. No precip with the first wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 this runs going Euro with the first SW. Gonna be way south. Yeah prolly mostly a miss here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 5, 2011 Author Share Posted January 5, 2011 Light snow breaking out at 132 and 138. 500 energy and flow is much different than the 12z run. And it's crapping out at 150. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Wow this is weak.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 5, 2011 Author Share Posted January 5, 2011 Wow this is weak.. yeah it was, lol the 500 MB map is a mess everywhere. So much different than the 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Amazing how they keep changing lol. I been sitting here quiet for almost 3 pages watching you guys battle it out with these crazy models. One minute something the next minute nothing. This is exactly why I will not allow myself to live and die from each model run. They just cant grasp things right this year. Ok seriously we need something though cause time is gonna start running out once we hit the middle of feb. with the sun angle getting higher and higher Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Wow this is weak.. Is it really that shocking to you man? It dont shock me one bit....still to far away i say Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Moisture coming at a premium this winter. No different here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Is it really that shocking to you man? It dont shock me one bit....still to far away i say Nah no shock here. Guess its just the thrill of the chase for me lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Nah no shock here. Guess its just the thrill of the chase for me lol. very true....something to look forward to....well maybe not lol. More like get our hopes up for nothing once again haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 very true....something to look forward to....well maybe not lol. More like get our hopes up for nothing once again haha Not giving up on this one yet. Typical model losing its way in this timeframe IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 5, 2011 Author Share Posted January 5, 2011 Well the rest of the run is pretty cold and crazy. There may be multiple chances for something in that mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 5, 2011 Author Share Posted January 5, 2011 Oh good grief... what is the GGEM doing? Has a clipperish look to it and we are warmer. Yeah that's probably going to be wrong. An inch or so on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 lol more mayhem.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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