JoMo Posted January 4, 2011 Author Share Posted January 4, 2011 Looks too warm for snow here all weekend, until the backend possibly. Horrible solution tonite. yeah, solution # 412145 GGEM doesn't have the precip Weds morning now... heh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 yeah, solution # 412145 GGEM doesn't have the precip Weds morning now... heh Just like pulling teeth this year man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 4, 2011 Author Share Posted January 4, 2011 Just like pulling teeth this year man. hey look at that storm at 300ish on the GFS. Just think how much snow Minnesota will get when that storm actually happens! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 4, 2011 Author Share Posted January 4, 2011 Slight difference in temps on the 00Z vs 18Z......... 18z 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 hey look at that storm at 300ish on the GFS. Just think how much snow Minnesota will get when that storm actually happens! Yeah lol you got that right. What a hobby.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 4, 2011 Author Share Posted January 4, 2011 GGEM is on it too. hr 132: hr 144: GFS Ensembles look to be a bit colder, or at least some of them. Still a buncha runs to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 4, 2011 Author Share Posted January 4, 2011 This may come as a surprise but the 06z GFS had a different solution again. It came in a lot colder at the surface than the 00z GFS. Also at 192 has a new closed low dropping down the west which produces a big storm around Day 10. From nothing on the 00z GFS to: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ozarkwx Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 One of the things discussed in a La Nina year was the increased potential for an ice storm here. I am wondering if this might not be the potential for some of us in this set up. I see Tulsa has introduced that as a slight possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Time to see what the 12Z GFS run has for us. Keeping my fingers crossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Shifting back N some on the 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 4, 2011 Author Share Posted January 4, 2011 GGEM has a 989 low over the TX Panhandle that moves ENE until it's over us Sunday morning and is at 992. It then lifts north and is a 999 over SE Iowa on Monday morning...... woooooow GFS Ensemble mean is much much colder and farther south with the low ejecting out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 GGEM has a 989 low over the TX Panhandle that moves ENE until it's over us Sunday morning and is at 992. It then lifts north and is a 999 over SE Iowa on Monday morning...... woooooow GFS Ensemble mean is much much colder and farther south with the low ejecting out. Which is exactly what we need. GGEM is a nightmare for here again. Hopefully with blocking any adjustment will be south from here on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 4, 2011 Author Share Posted January 4, 2011 Which is exactly what we need. GGEM is a nightmare for here again. Hopefully with blocking any adjustment will be south from here on. NOGAPS has more of a GGEM solution today I think. :-\ I gotta admit, it's not looking too good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 NOGAPS has more of a GGEM solution today I think. :-\ I gotta admit, it's not looking too good. Yeah looks plenty wet but too warm for most of it. Still 5 days out though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 4, 2011 Author Share Posted January 4, 2011 Well the Euro is way different so far. The first piece of energy (southern wave) scoots off way to our south. At 120 it's over Mississippi, while it's over SE OK area on the GFS at the same time. 850 MB temps are -6ish on the Euro while they are above 0 on the GFS. Looks like precip would be confined farther south though but can't really tell. Euro is much much much much colder @ 850 at 144. 850 RH and 700 RH would probably indicate some precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Well the Euro is way different so far. The first piece of energy (southern wave) scoots off way to our south. At 120 it's over Mississippi, while it's over SE OK area on the GFS at the same time. 850 MB temps are -6ish on the Euro while they are above 0 on the GFS. Looks like precip would be confined farther south though but can't really tell. Euro is much much much much colder @ 850 at 144. 850 RH and 700 RH would probably indicate some precip. First wave is a miss for you. Second piece has light amounts...safely all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 4, 2011 Author Share Posted January 4, 2011 First wave is a miss for you. Second piece has light amounts...safely all snow. Thanks. Quite a difference between all the models still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Very interesting (but not uncommon) to see the GFS be the N outlier and the ECMWF be the S outlier on the 12z runs. Obviously the depth and speed of the Arctic intrusion is key to where the ultimate storm tracks and what kind of impacts will result. For now, I would lean heavily on trends from the ensemble models (but not totally discount the operational models) until the operationals can form some kind of agreement on the timing of cold air and the wave gets better sampled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 4, 2011 Author Share Posted January 4, 2011 Very interesting (but not uncommon) to see the GFS be the N outlier and the ECMWF be the S outlier on the 12z runs. Obviously the depth and speed of the Arctic intrusion is key to where the ultimate storm tracks and what kind of impacts will result. For now, I would lean heavily on trends from the ensemble models (but not totally discount the operational models) until the operationals can form some kind of agreement on the timing of cold air and the wave gets better sampled. Probably a good move. There is a lot of uncertainty still. I'll lean with a more N solution just because that's kind of been the theme this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Probably a good move. There is a lot of uncertainty still. I'll lean with a more N solution just because that's kind of been the theme this winter. Yeah and the Euro certainly isnt the gold standard anymore either so the GFS solution is as good as any at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Yeah and the Euro certainly isnt the gold standard anymore either so the GFS solution is as good as any at this point. I wouldn't go so far as to say that. Both models have their flaws (as pointed out ad nauseum in other threads) and atleast in this situation, have different solutions with relation to their handling of four things. 1. Timing of arctic air (ECM is faster, GFS slower) 2. Handling of the weekend system (still poorly sampled) 3. Energy behind initial system (see #2) 4. Overall handling of pattern change. The impression is there, but last night's ECM wanted to resurrect the ridge in the SW, while the GFS kept most of the CONUS in the deep freeze. Moral of the post, the idea of some wintry precipitation somewhere in our area is still on the table but until 3 of the 4 items above are resolved, there will continue to be a gigantic spread in the models. As I said previously, it is best to use ensemble models to gain some sort of conceptual idea of what might happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I wouldn't go so far as to say that. Both models have their flaws (as pointed out ad nauseum in other threads) and atleast in this situation, have different solutions with relation to their handling of four things. 1. Timing of arctic air (ECM is faster, GFS slower) 2. Handling of the weekend system (still poorly sampled) 3. Energy behind initial system (see #2) 4. Overall handling of pattern change. The impression is there, but last night's ECM wanted to resurrect the ridge in the SW, while the GFS kept most of the CONUS in the deep freeze. Moral of the post, the idea of some wintry precipitation somewhere in our area is still on the table but until 3 of the 4 items above are resolved, there will continue to be a gigantic spread in the models. As I said previously, it is best to use ensemble models to gain some sort of conceptual idea of what might happen. What are the ensemble models showing at this point? Are they leaning in any direction of a "conceptual idea" as you mention above? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 4, 2011 Author Share Posted January 4, 2011 What are the ensemble models showing at this point? Are they leaning in any direction of a "conceptual idea" as you mention above? 12z http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ewallmref.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Here's another one to stew over - JMA @ 144. Somewhat of a blend between the northern GFS/GGEM and suppressed Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 What are the ensemble models showing at this point? Are they leaning in any direction of a "conceptual idea" as you mention above? Generally, the GFS ensembles develop a system in W TX during the day Sunday and that drags the cold air into our areas. At the same time thats happening, there is precip falling so it would appear that this could be a tricky ptype scenario. Most of the ensembles develop a deep trough across most of the CONUS and keep it in place through atleast day 8 (end of ensemble forecast period.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 4, 2011 Author Share Posted January 4, 2011 Generally, the GFS ensembles develop a system in W TX during the day Sunday and that drags the cold air into our areas. At the same time thats happening, there is precip falling so it would appear that this could be a tricky ptype scenario. Most of the ensembles develop a deep trough across most of the CONUS, but want to move it out by day 7...which may be a tad fast since we all know cold air is harder to move than warm air. On the flip side, pretty much all of the GGEM ensembles support the 'lakes cutter' it shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 On the flip side, pretty much all of the GGEM ensembles support the 'lakes cutter' it shows. Are those from the 12z GGEM ensembles? If so, I would like the link. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 4, 2011 Author Share Posted January 4, 2011 Are those from the 12z GGEM ensembles? If so, I would like the link. http://www.weatherof...le/index_e.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 http://www.weatherof...le/index_e.html Thanks for the link. It is interesting to note that while the GGEM ensemble supports the idea of a sub 980mb lake cutter -> Nor'easter.....the ensembles also support the notion of a storm somewhere in the area in the central plains over the weekend, and its not nearly as suppressed as the ECM would have you believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 4, 2011 Author Share Posted January 4, 2011 Well, the southern system won't be on shore until Fri morning. Wichita expects that the NW system will slow down and dig a bit more compared to what the models show. 20 mins until 18z GFS shows us back in the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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