JoMo Posted January 3, 2011 Author Share Posted January 3, 2011 Defin not a classic looking SW low that we would normally want to see. yeah plus this huge fetch of dry air really cuts into the first part of the storm. Ah well, it'll be different in 6 hours anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Does this run look strange to anyone else around h168? The low forms in central Mexico and runs along the Gulf of Mexico just off the coast of Texas/Lousiana/Florida. I don't recall seeing many lows start that far south and keep the low in the Gulf. I don't know. Just seems weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 3, 2011 Author Share Posted January 3, 2011 Dry slot on the GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 3, 2011 Author Share Posted January 3, 2011 Does this run look strange to anyone else around h168? The low forms in central Mexico and runs along the Gulf of Mexico just off the coast of Texas/Lousiana/Florida. I don't recall seeing many lows start that far south and keep the low in the Gulf. I don't know. Just seems weird. yeah it isn't our typical storm, this one is coming down from the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Certainly not liking the GEM today but as you say it will certainly change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 3, 2011 Author Share Posted January 3, 2011 There's a ton of ensemble spread on the 12z GFS and that's probably an understatement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 There's a ton of ensemble spread on the 12z GFS and that's probably an understatement. Many changes forthcoming. If this were last winter I'd say go ahead and lock it in but not this yr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 3, 2011 Author Share Posted January 3, 2011 Many changes forthcoming. If this were last winter I'd say go ahead and lock it in but not this yr. yeah, it's going to change a few dozen times. The pattern looks pretty cold in the long range, hope it doesn't suppress everything to our south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 3, 2011 Author Share Posted January 3, 2011 off topic but......what's going on in Arkansas? Lots of fish dead in NW Arkansas http://www.todaysthv.com/news/local/story.aspx?storyid=136401&catid=2 And 2,000-3,000 dead birds down by Little Rock http://www.arkansasonline.com/news/2011/jan/03/dead-bird-count-passes-2000-20110103/?news Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Twister maps are impressive.. for now. That was the keyword you just said lol....for now. This is gonna be a semi cold long boring winter i think. This pattern we keep getting stuck in just stinks...hopefully something will change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 3, 2011 Author Share Posted January 3, 2011 Come on FIM, lol.... After this, it looks like many hours of overrunning snow stretching from colorado on east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 off topic but......what's going on in Arkansas? Lots of fish dead in NW Arkansas http://www.todaysthv...=136401&catid=2 And 2,000-3,000 dead birds down by Little Rock http://www.arkansaso...-20110103/?news I'm guessing that all the fish and wildlife are pissed that it won't snow. They too have given up on winter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 3, 2011 Author Share Posted January 3, 2011 I can't really tell what the Euro shows due to this system not having a surface low. It looks like it may be north of here though? It doesn't matter since it'll all change 12 hours from now anyway. The one thing that is consistent on all the models is the arctic air coming down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I can't really tell what the Euro shows due to this system not having a surface low. It looks like it may be north of here though? It doesn't matter since it'll all change 12 hours from now anyway. The one thing that is consistent on all the models is the arctic air coming down. Are you looking at the map at h192? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 3, 2011 Author Share Posted January 3, 2011 Are you looking at the map at h192? Nah I just check these out to 168: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ECMWF_12z/ecmwfloop.html http://greatlakes.salsite.com/big_ECMWF_plymouth_page.html Then this to 240: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ECMWF0.5_12z/ecmwfloop.html Looks like something big is developing out west at 240, but can't really tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 NoGaps looking good @ 180.... lol. JMA has snow in here by h144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 3, 2011 Author Share Posted January 3, 2011 NoGaps looking good @ 180.... lol. JMA has snow in here by h144 JMA does? It's a lock! Yeah several of the ensembles showed that as a possibility as well. I still like my FIM solution. Burst of snow at 150-156 followed by around 2 days of light to mod snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I'll take FIM as well then. JMA @ 144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 3, 2011 Author Share Posted January 3, 2011 Man, I hate riding the edge there. At 3:30 the 18z GFS starts and produces a different solution! This is the snow water map... Using the 10:1 ratio (it would probably be higher).. it'd be between 5-10" of snow with NW Ark probably over 10". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Let's just say we may be about to enter a potentially memorable 2-3 week stretch of winter. What it's remembered for who knows, or will it even be remembered as in my case, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Let's just say we may be about to enter a potentially memorable 2-3 week stretch of winter. What it's remembered for who knows, or will it even be remembered as in my case, lol. haha man probly the second part for us all....i guess we have a little hope for at least right now! of course tomorrow will be different with cold and dry probly lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 3, 2011 Author Share Posted January 3, 2011 And 18z GFS map. Southern system moved a little farther north, was colder overall, and the system diving into the west was a bit farther to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 3, 2011 Author Share Posted January 3, 2011 Now this is just disgusting. Kinda sums up our winter here so far. 18z DGEX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 With all of the models pointing toward some snow here, surely we get a little something... One thing we definitely seem to be going to get is a whole lot of cold. Models are pretty consistent in that regard. Edit: I can live with what the DGEX shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Hmmm... GFS throws some snow our way Wednesday morning. Very light, but still... hmm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 4, 2011 Author Share Posted January 4, 2011 Hmmm... GFS throws some snow our way Wednesday morning. Very light, but still... hmm... yep the GGEM first picked up on that several days ago. I still think we won't see much more than flurries due to a lack of moisture, maybe a dusting at most. and LOL @ Joplinmet looking forward to "Snow" the most in 2011. And wow at the S Stream being much farther north @ 108 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Defin some changes on the 0z tonite forthcoming. What else is new huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 4, 2011 Author Share Posted January 4, 2011 Defin some changes on the 0z tonite forthcoming. What else is new huh? yeah... I'd say.... Congrats to the 12z GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 So far, this is not a good run for those hoping for a winter storm this weekend, atleast on the 00z GFS run. A poorman's dProg/dT of the last four GFS model runs (18z, 12z, 06z, 00z) has given the hint that this wave may be a tad more shallow than previously thought and not terribly energized. This would mean more of a light rain -> snow episode for most of our area as the cold air convoy sets up shop into week 2 of the forecast. Definitely still a ton of time to watch this system, I for one hope we get something outta this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 yeah... I'd say.... Congrats to the 12z GGEM. Looks too warm for snow here all weekend, until the backend possibly. Horrible solution tonite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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