JoMo Posted November 16, 2010 Author Share Posted November 16, 2010 I made it here. I was shocked to see the other forum closed down.. To bad the weather isnt doing anything at all. Good thing you're here. Back to 0% chance of snow. :-p Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 Glad to see you found us and made it here spot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 Yep, this winter gonna suck. ECMWF computer model forecast for the winter (DJF) by Brett Anderson at Accuweather released today: http://www.accuweath...-the-winter.asp Nothing like warm and dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 16, 2010 Author Share Posted November 16, 2010 Nothing like warm and dry. yeah it's great how it's more dry in SE KS/SW MO/NE OK/NW AR then the surrounding areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 yeah it's great how it's more dry in SE KS/SW MO/NE OK/NW AR then the surrounding areas That my friend would be what i call the "Donut Hole" at least thats what I have always called it anyhow lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B.Sebo Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 At the end of the day, the ECMWF is just another model. I doubt it verifies to that much of an extreme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B.Sebo Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 By the way, did fall today, about 60 miles NE of here. A picture we got from a viewer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 17, 2010 Author Share Posted November 17, 2010 Nice Nice, 00z GFS is back on the bringing down the cold bandwagon (for up here). Going to be back and forth for awhile I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 17, 2010 Author Share Posted November 17, 2010 Looks interesting next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 19, 2010 Author Share Posted November 19, 2010 Need to watch the 156-180 time period for a possibility of overrunning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 Need to watch the 156-180 time period for a possibility of overrunning. Yep it looks to definately get colder by turkey day! Beginning of the week and my b-day looks to be really warm....maybe ill start hanging outside xmas decorations on the warmer days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 19, 2010 Author Share Posted November 19, 2010 Yep it looks to definately get colder by turkey day! Beginning of the week and my b-day looks to be really warm....maybe ill start hanging outside xmas decorations on the warmer days All I know is I need some actual weather, or something other than showers or sunshine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 All I know is I need some actual weather, or something other than showers or sunshine. I hear ya man Im tired of this boring warmth. Yea i know its only november but Im tired of cutting grass or seeing rain. I really hope it turns cold like they are saying and stays that way now. Will probly get cold for a few days then right back to warm again haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArkieOkie Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 Just found this place! I didn't post at the other board often, and when I did it was usually on this thread. I'm lovin' the fall weather and hoping for a fun winter. By the way...the snow we got here on Christmas was my very first white Christmas. How sad is that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 Just found this place! I didn't post at the other board often, and when I did it was usually on this thread. I'm lovin' the fall weather and hoping for a fun winter. By the way...the snow we got here on Christmas was my very first white Christmas. How sad is that? Glad you found it here as well....welcome aboard! Last winters xmas eve/xmas day was my first white xmas as well! It was so awesome but whats the chance of it ever happening again especially down this way lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 21, 2010 Author Share Posted November 21, 2010 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO255 PM CST SUN NOV 21 2010 THE COLD AIR MAY INFILTRATE THE REGION QUICK ENOUGH TO RESULT IN BRIEF WINTRY MIX BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION ENDS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME...SIGNIFICANT WINTER PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY. Also 18z GFS with snowmegeddon for OK/AR in the long range. lolol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO255 PM CST SUN NOV 21 2010 THE COLD AIR MAY INFILTRATE THE REGION QUICK ENOUGH TO RESULT IN BRIEF WINTRY MIX BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION ENDS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME...SIGNIFICANT WINTER PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY. Also 18z GFS with snowmegeddon for OK/AR in the long range. lolol Noticed that (the 18Z lolng-range) too. Shows a low of 3F for KTUL on 12/7 (between 372h and 384h). Snow depth for KTUL is around 9"; large >16" area in the heart of AR into the TN-MS border area. That looks like a southern stream storm... I thought this was a La Niña with no southern stream. While the 18Z may not be correct, I do expect this to be no ordinary La Niña. After all, who (of the "This is Niña and nothing else matters!" people) could have guessed the "ultra-strong" PV was going to split in late November, sending the NAO to around -3 (with some ensemble members showing an all-time record -3.4) and the AO to around -4 (a far cry from the record of around -7.5, but still super-low)? Here is the snow depth map: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 22, 2010 Author Share Posted November 22, 2010 The Pacific jet is displaced pretty far south due to the neg AO and NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Noticed that (the 18Z lolng-range) too. Shows a low of 3F for KTUL on 12/7 (between 372h and 384h). Snow depth for KTUL is around 9"; large >16" area in the heart of AR into the TN-MS border area. That looks like a southern stream storm... I thought this was a La Niña with no southern stream. While the 18Z may not be correct, I do expect this to be no ordinary La Niña. After all, who (of the "This is Niña and nothing else matters!" people) could have guessed the "ultra-strong" PV was going to split in late November, sending the NAO to around -3 (with some ensemble members showing an all-time record -3.4) and the AO to around -4 (a far cry from the record of around -7.5, but still super-low)? Here is the snow depth map: A lot of Nina years have above average precip in DJF in the OV/TN Valley region but not really from a strong STJ. This Nina could be quirky as far as blocking potential though so I agree. Don Sutherland has posted some research which hints at greater blocking potential in winters following those with extreme blocking. Although it's difficult to envision it being as frequent/extreme as last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 This has got to be the warmest birthday I have ever expierienced lol. And look at that giant donut hole on that twister map....yuck! Wait it looks more like a whale haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 22, 2010 Author Share Posted November 22, 2010 This has got to be the warmest birthday I have ever expierienced lol. And look at that giant donut hole on that twister map....yuck! Wait it looks more like a whale haha. Happy Birthday. I was just outside putting weather stripping on and doing some other outdoorsy things. Looks like the cold front is firing storms along it to our west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Happy Birthday. I was just outside putting weather stripping on and doing some other outdoorsy things. Looks like the cold front is firing storms along it to our west. Thanks man! Yea the sky looks bad here. Gotta enjoy this warmth while it lasts i guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 22, 2010 Author Share Posted November 22, 2010 18z NAM is showing cold air undercutting the precip which leads to this: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 18z NAM is showing cold air undercutting the precip Cold air undercutting precip would lead to freezing rain or possibly sleet, not snow. Apparently the NAM is showing more of a "bulldozer" solution with the front instead of an "undercutter" solution. Keep in mind that one bias of the NAM is to show bulldozers too often in the long-range (i.e., not many ice storms show up on hr 84). However, another bias of the NAM is to be too slow with the progression of cold air (the opposite of the GFS). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 22, 2010 Author Share Posted November 22, 2010 Cold air undercutting precip would lead to freezing rain or possibly sleet, not snow. Apparently the NAM is showing more of a "bulldozer" solution with the front instead of an "undercutter" solution. Keep in mind that one bias of the NAM is to show bulldozers too often in the long-range (i.e., not many ice storms show up on hr 84). However, another bias of the NAM is to be too slow with the progression of cold air (the opposite of the GFS). 850's would suggest that the precip would not be snow @ 72 when the precip is still falling Cold 925's may make up for it though. However at 75, it does show the 850 front sharpening up and it would probably turn more to snow then. Of course this is all dependent on the cold air and the NAM being right....... 72+ hour out... lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Come on now jomo we are talking about the Nam here....you know better by now haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 22, 2010 Author Share Posted November 22, 2010 Come on now jomo we are talking about the Nam here....you know better by now haha yep, it's highly conditional on the NAM being right with the thermal fields this far in advance. I had been expecting something like this though since the trough axis will still be to our west. If the models start moving towards it, then it will be something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 850's would suggest that the precip would not be snow @ 72 when the precip is still falling Cold 925's may make up for it though. However at 75, it does show the 850 front sharpening up and it would probably turn more to snow then. Of course this is all dependent on the cold air and the NAM being right....... 72+ hour out... lol BUFKIT of that NAM says freezing rain and ice pellets all the way to the end. Zero snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 22, 2010 Author Share Posted November 22, 2010 BUFKIT of that NAM says freezing rain and ice pellets all the way to the end. Zero snow. Yeah I looked at the extracted data a bit later and there appears to be a warm layer between 700-800 MB that would keep it sleet/freezing rain. The GFS would have none of this though and it is the NAM so it probably won't happen at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 22, 2010 Author Share Posted November 22, 2010 18z GFS long range looks more like an El-Nino with storms dropping into the southwest and ejecting out across the southern states every few days. Kind of weird to see that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.