MoWeatherguy Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Nice changes on the GFS tonite. Starting to pick up on the mid-week system now, precip chances next weekend, and big time cold after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 2, 2011 Author Share Posted January 2, 2011 Nice changes on the GFS tonite. Starting to pick up on the mid-week system now, precip chances next weekend, and big time cold after that. yeah it does. Hoping everything works out with that Day 8-10 system, it's been on there for several days now. GGEM has it: Euro has it too, but is quicker with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Nice. Hopefully this signal continues and we start to get ramped up around here beginning late week. This winter has been nothing short of ridiculous WRT precip in this region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 2, 2011 Author Share Posted January 2, 2011 Nice. Hopefully this signal continues and we start to get ramped up around here beginning late week. This winter has been nothing short of ridiculous WRT precip in this region. And it's gone on the 06z and 12z GFS. Huge changes between last nights 00z and 12z run today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 And it's gone on the 06z and 12z GFS. Huge changes between last nights 00z and 12z run today. Yeah nasty looking run indeed. Good thing it prolly wont verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 2, 2011 Author Share Posted January 2, 2011 Yeah nasty looking run indeed. Good thing it prolly wont verify. I dunno. The main problem is that crap over the northeast and great lakes. If that vortex forms there and stays there, it will be December all over again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 We are getting rediculously dry. Regardless of the fact of it is rain or snow, we are needing some precip. over a sustained period of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 And it's gone on the 06z and 12z GFS. Huge changes between last nights 00z and 12z run today. It's not gone on the 6Z lol... at least not for me. Agreed that 12Z is not that pretty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 2, 2011 Author Share Posted January 2, 2011 It's not gone on the 6Z lol... at least not for me. Agreed that 12Z is not that pretty. Talking about the Day 8-10 storm on last nights 00z GFS. It's not there anymore for any of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 2, 2011 Author Share Posted January 2, 2011 GFS and Euro are completely different at 168. Euro: GFS: UPDATE 4:47 PM: 18z GFS shows yet another solution. It does still look cold in the long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Yeah nice look around 240 on the 18z and then one massive cold outbreak after another. I dont see a very mild January coming up the way things look now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 2, 2011 Author Share Posted January 2, 2011 Yeah nice look around 240 on the 18z and then one massive cold outbreak after another. I dont see a very mild January coming up the way things look now. yeah been looking at some of the indices, they show the NAO rising to near neutral so we may get a weak SE ridge. That may actually be a good thing if we can manage to get a trough out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 yeah been looking at some of the indices, they show the NAO rising to near neutral so we may get a weak SE ridge. That may actually be a good thing if we can manage to get a trough out west. I think that would certainly benefit us. At least better than this pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Huge differences on the 0z GFS tonite from 12z this morning. Brings a shortwave across TX/AR which would threaten winter weather across at least the southern parts of this region late next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 3, 2011 Author Share Posted January 3, 2011 Huge differences on the 0z GFS tonite from 12z this morning. Brings a shortwave across TX/AR which would threaten winter weather across at least the southern parts of this region late next weekend. yep, that's the "D8-10 storm" from above. It's back. Could you imagine if it was just a bit slower and the storm diving down from the NW was just a bit faster? I wonder if any of the ensembles will show that solution. Still shows a pretty great pattern after that too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 yep, that's the "D8-10 storm" from above. It's back. Could you imagine if it was just a bit slower and the storm diving down from the NW was just a bit faster? I wonder if any of the ensembles will show that solution. Still shows a pretty great pattern after that too. Yeah that would be an awesome scenario. Anything can happen at this point. The northern stream is just so dominant this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 3, 2011 Author Share Posted January 3, 2011 Yeah that would be an awesome scenario. Anything can happen at this point. The northern stream is just so dominant this year. UPDATE: 11:12 PM............ GGEM has a 998 MB low over SW Arkansas @ 168. GFS has it out in the Gulf at that time.... GGEM is still wanting to squeeze out some precip weds morning and it shows temps below freezing. I don't think it will probably happen though due to dry air. GGEM is faster with the system moving into the NW @ 144 as well. GFS Snow depth through 180. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 3, 2011 Author Share Posted January 3, 2011 168 GGEM (shame it weakens the storm rapidly) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 3, 2011 Author Share Posted January 3, 2011 Geesh, Norman, OK MORE ATTENTION CONTINUES TO TURN TO THE POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT TURN OF EVENTS NEXT WEEK. BIG RIDGE WILL BUILD N INTO ALASKA BY LATE WEEKEND... SUPPORTING A SIZEABLE BUILDUP OF ARCTIC AIR OVER W CANADA AND DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS INTO SW CANADA AND NW CONUS. FORMATION OF A 500-MB 575-580 HIGH OVER AK... WHICH HAS BEEN ADVERTIZED BY THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW... GENERALLY DOES NOT TURN OUT WELL - FOR MOST OF THE LOWER 48 MUCH LESS THE S PLAINS. GFS SFC-T PROGS FOR NEXT TUESDAY ARE UNPRECEDENTED AS FAR AS THIS FORECASTER CAN RECALL... AND IF TAKEN LITERALLY WOULD IMPLY THAT PARTS OF MT/WY WOULD STRUGGLE TO REACH HIGHS OF -30F NEXT TUESDAY. THAT SEEMS A WEE BIT EXTREME... BUT IN ANY EVENT THE PATTERN CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A TURN TOWARD SIGNIFICANT AND POTENTIALLY SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IN SOME WAY SHAPE OR FORM - THE STUFF NATIONAL HEADLINES ARE MADE OF - BY SOMETIME NEXT WEEK. COLD AIR IS LIKELY TO BEGIN INVADING THE PACNW AND NORTHERN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND AND ROLL SE THEREAFTER. AT THIS TIME WE ARE LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF AND A FASTER INVASION OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE S PLAINS NEXT SUNDAY NIGHT. WHAT HAPPENS AFTER THAT IS HARD TO SAY. BITTER COLD... SNOW AND/OR ICE... OR PERHAPS ALL OF THE ABOVE. SUFFICE TO SAY NEXT WEEK LOOKS TROUBLESOME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flexo Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Geesh, Norman, OK Can't blame a guy for lovin' his job... Well, I guess you could Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Now this is just disgusting. Kinda sums up our winter here so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Now this is just disgusting. Kinda sums up our winter here so far. 18-21 in Mississippi? Put it in Tulsa instead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 12z GFS looking better for the region now around h168. Waiting on snow map from Twister. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 3, 2011 Author Share Posted January 3, 2011 12z GFS looking better for the region now around h168. Waiting on snow map from Twister. Kind of a strange looking system but pretty long duration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Kind of a strange looking system but pretty long duration. Yeah we get missed by the first sw moving across the deep south over the upcoming weekend but then this arctic wave or whatever it is drops down and kinda takes its time moving across. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Now this is just disgusting. Kinda sums up our winter here so far. If this crap happens then I give up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 3, 2011 Author Share Posted January 3, 2011 Yeah we get missed by the first sw moving across the deep south over the upcoming weekend but then this arctic wave or whatever it is drops down and kinda takes its time moving across. yeah, I dunno. There's a lot to worry about this run.. temps, and dry air mostly and I'm just not feeling it yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 yeah, I dunno. There's a lot to worry about this run.. temps, and dry air mostly and I'm just not feeling it yet. Defin not a classic looking SW low that we would normally want to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Twister maps are impressive.. for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 00Z GFS looks like a good run around h180 and 192. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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