JoMo Posted December 28, 2010 Author Share Posted December 28, 2010 Dodge City's discussion was depressing today: TROPICAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED IN THE EASTERN INDIAN OCEAN IN RECENT DAYS WHILE REMAINING ANOMALOUSLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE MARITIME CONTINENT. RELATIVE ANGULAR MOMENTUM VALUES STILL ARE 1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW CLIMATOLOGY, AS WOULD BE EXPECTED IN A LA NINA YEAR. MOUNTAIN TORQUE STILL IS POSITIVE WITH MUCH OF THE POSITIVE CONTRIBUTION COMING FROM NORTH AMERICA, BUT THE MOUNTAIN TORQUE AND THE CALCULATED RELATIVE ANGULAR MOMENTUM TENDENCY ARE DECREASING. THE ATMOSPHERE APPEARS TO BE ORBITING BACK TOWARD PHASE 2-3 IN THE GLOBAL WIND OSCILLATION PHASE SPACE DIAGRAM, ALTHOUGH THE GWO SIGNAL IS WEAK AT BEST. THE WHEELER-HENDON MJO PHASE SPACE DIAGRAM HAS PICKED UP ON THE INCREASED CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN INDIAN OCEAN AND SUGGESTS THAT THE ATMOSPHERE IS IN PHASE 5 OF THE MJO PHASE SPACE DIAGRAM, WHICH FAVORS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN WESTERN CANADA. ADDING COMPLEXITY TO THE FLOW IS THE PERSISTENT RIDGING NEAR GREENLAND. THE BLOCKING RIDGE NEAR GREENLAND APPEARS TO HAVE WEAKENED TEMPORARILY, BUT MOST OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE SUGGESTING INCREASINGLY NEGATIVE VALUES FOR THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION IN EARLY JANUARY. THE NET RESULT LIKELY WILL BE ONLY TEMPORARY TROUGHING IN THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WITH A RETURN TO BLOCKING IN THE ATLANTIC AFTER THE FIRST OF THE YEAR, A SPLIT FLOW IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND A GENERALLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ACROSS THE UNITED STATES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted December 28, 2010 Share Posted December 28, 2010 This was from Dodge City, KS today. Anyone care to translate. Does this mean a brief warmup for the East Coast and then back to how it's been through December? Not sure if that's a good sign for us or not. Thoughts? TROPICAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED IN THE EASTERN INDIAN OCEAN IN RECENT DAYS WHILE REMAINING ANOMALOUSLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE MARITIME CONTINENT. RELATIVE ANGULAR MOMENTUM VALUES STILL ARE 1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW CLIMATOLOGY, AS WOULD BE EXPECTED IN A LA NINA YEAR. MOUNTAIN TORQUE STILL IS POSITIVE WITH MUCH OF THE POSITIVE CONTRIBUTION COMING FROM NORTH AMERICA, BUT THE MOUNTAIN TORQUE AND THE CALCULATED RELATIVE ANGULAR MOMENTUM TENDENCY ARE DECREASING. THE ATMOSPHERE APPEARS TO BE ORBITING BACK TOWARD PHASE 2-3 IN THE GLOBAL WIND OSCILLATION PHASE SPACE DIAGRAM, ALTHOUGH THE GWO SIGNAL IS WEAK AT BEST. THE WHEELER-HENDON MJO PHASE SPACE DIAGRAM HAS PICKED UP ON THE INCREASED CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN INDIAN OCEAN AND SUGGESTS THAT THE ATMOSPHERE IS IN PHASE 5 OF THE MJO PHASE SPACE DIAGRAM, WHICH FAVORS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN WESTERN CANADA. ADDING COMPLEXITY TO THE FLOW IS THE PERSISTENT RIDGING NEAR GREENLAND. THE BLOCKING RIDGE NEAR GREENLAND APPEARS TO HAVE WEAKENED TEMPORARILY, BUT MOST OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE SUGGESTING INCREASINGLY NEGATIVE VALUES FOR THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION IN EARLY JANUARY. THE NET RESULT LIKELY WILL BE ONLY TEMPORARY TROUGHING IN THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WITH A RETURN TO BLOCKING IN THE ATLANTIC AFTER THE FIRST OF THE YEAR, A SPLIT FLOW IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND A GENERALLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ACROSS THE UNITED STATES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 29, 2010 Author Share Posted December 29, 2010 It means it's December all over again, except we have fast storm systems that zip by without producing any precip, oh wait, that was December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted December 29, 2010 Share Posted December 29, 2010 Well there is hope. There is a nice storm coming up on the GFS about 300 hours from now... make that 294... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 29, 2010 Author Share Posted December 29, 2010 Well there is hope. There is a nice storm coming up on the GFS about 300 hours from now... make that 294... NW storm, won't produce precip here :-p Also, we can't even get any waves to eject out of the cutoff over the SW to give us anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted December 29, 2010 Share Posted December 29, 2010 JoMo, Great minds must think alike. You and I both posted the Dodge City discussion info within 2 minutes of each other yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted December 29, 2010 Share Posted December 29, 2010 I can't even get any of the rain that's nearby. Wow! Well, I think I will put my flip flops and shorts on and enjoy the warmer weather for a few days. Maybe we can get some severe storms tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 29, 2010 Author Share Posted December 29, 2010 It's already 56 here right now, GFS is going to be at least 4 degrees or more off, it seems to be running too cool. NAM is handling the temps better of course which means we may see mid-upper 60's tomorrow. I can't really find any GFS Ensemble to hug in the next 16 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 30, 2010 Author Share Posted December 30, 2010 Back in the money on the long range 18z GFS today. Glad it was warm today though, let me trim my trees that needed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 That is a deep and wide snowpack across the USA at 300 hours. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 31, 2010 Author Share Posted December 31, 2010 That is a deep and wide snowpack across the USA at 300 hours. LOL truncation makes it look bigger than it really is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 Intense cell down in Carroll county, AR is crossing over into SE Barry and Stone at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ozarkwx Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 Intense cell down in Carroll county, AR is crossing over into SE Barry and Stone at this time. Seems like a long time since we were in the bulls-eye of a heavy t-storm. 1.2" in last hour. .8 of it fell in 15 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 31, 2010 Author Share Posted December 31, 2010 Intense cell down in Carroll county, AR is crossing over into SE Barry and Stone at this time. where's the tornado warning from Springfield? Oh it's not Jasper or Barton county EDIT: Oh there they are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 These warnings may have verified, however. Lots of damage reports coming into Springfield this morning. http://www.weather.g...prodtype=public Quite a storm report coming in from Cincinnati, AR (south of Siloam Springs). Looks like a tornado went through that community of around 100 people: 0609 AM TORNADO CINCINNATI 36.04N 94.51W 12/31/2010 WASHINGTON AR CO-OP OBSERVER PRELIMNARY REPORT OF TORNADO DAMAGE IN CINCINNATI. ONE MOBILE HOME AND TWO BARNS DESTROYED. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION TO FOLLOW. 0609 AM TORNADO CINCINNATI 36.04N 94.51W 12/31/2010 WASHINGTON AR CO-OP OBSERVER ADDITIONAL PRELIMINARY REPORTS FROM CINCINNATI. EXTENSIVE DAMAGE REPORTED IN THE AREA. BRICK HOME DESTROYED. VEHICLES DAMAGED. VOLUNTEER FIRE DEPT FACILITY DAMAGED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 where's the tornado warning from Springfield? Oh it's not Jasper or Barton county EDIT: Oh there they are. Are they really that bad with just throwing out a tornado warning lol? Its pretty intense up here at the moment! Heavy rain wind and tons of thunder which has awaken me. 58 degrees outside then the dry cold front comes through and it gets cold again for a lil bit lol. The same ole same ole. Dont think I have ever seen a severe thunderstorm warning in the winter time lol....always a first for everything i guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ozarkwx Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 Looks like a few more hours before we go back to boring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 31, 2010 Author Share Posted December 31, 2010 UPDATE 12:44 GFS and Euro look completely different as early as 72 hours. Euro brings the SW low into the Plains much earlier than the GFS. @120, the Euro has it over SW Kansas while the GFS has it cutoff the west coast. 3 dead in NW Ark due to the tornado that touched down. What a difference 12 hours makes on the GFS. It's a whole lot colder. 00z GFS @ 180 12z GFS @ 168: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 I'm becoming more suspicious of an overrunning/ice storm setup in our next 2-3 weeks here. I feel we'll be more prone to one this winter ala the 06-07 and 07-08 winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 31, 2010 Author Share Posted December 31, 2010 I'm becoming more suspicious of an overrunning/ice storm setup in our next 2-3 weeks here. I feel we'll be more prone to one this winter ala the 06-07 and 07-08 winters. Yeah, it was nice yesterday so I trimmed trees in case we do get ice. There is a lot of disagreement in the models this morning. GGEM even brings in some precip as early as 96 hours from the model run this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 Yeah and it looks like the Euro is trying to bring a sw across around that same time frame as well. May not be as quite as they are expecting around here next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 31, 2010 Author Share Posted December 31, 2010 Yeah and it looks like the Euro is trying to bring a sw across around that same time frame as well. May not be as quite as they are expecting around here next week. Yeah the Euro and GFS are completely different at that time. The Euro has a 'SW bias' and it's ejecting this low out. Phases with some N Stream energy and produces another storm over the NE on the Euro. GFS says, what storm? The 00z runs are going to be really interesting. UPDATE: 2:32 PM Apparently the Euro is wayyy different than it's ensembles. Maybe some of these 216 hour GFS panels will come true: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 Tornado in Cincinnati, AR was rated an EF-3. The Sparta, MO tornado was an EF-1. The Ft. Leonard Wood tornado was also an EF-3. Yeah, I'd say an ice storm is probably next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 1, 2011 Author Share Posted January 1, 2011 Tulsa page on the tornado in NW Ark. http://www.srh.noaa....event_30dec2010 Springfield has posted theirs here: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=sgf&storyid=61895&source=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Happy New Year everyone ( a little early)!!! May we all get some nice snowfall in the first couple of weeks of 2011. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Happy New Year everyone ( a little early)!!! May we all get some nice snowfall in the first couple of weeks of 2011. Happy New Year to you and everyone else here as well! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Happy New Year to all on here tonite. Long range GFS continuing to advertise more impressive cold down the road and potential storminess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 1, 2011 Author Share Posted January 1, 2011 Happy New Year to all on here tonite. Long range GFS continuing to advertise more impressive cold down the road and potential storminess. yep, still a week or so away tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 yep, still a week or so away tho I agree....im not even gonna bother and get my hopes up....hell the models cant even grasp something thats close let alone to far away lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 1, 2011 Author Share Posted January 1, 2011 12z GGEM is bringing a system in @ 96 hours which is Weds morning. It may be close on temps, possibly starting as something frozen. 12z GFS and Ensembles don't have this at all, instead they keep precip down across the Gulf coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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