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NE OK/ NW AR/ SE KS/ SW MO Winter 2010


JoMo

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Winter Weather Advisory re-issued for MO due to freezing drizzle and flurries.

Man what a crazy forecast its been. Its been snowing here for the past 2 hours but very very light. Temps are dropping off now and its about 32.4 outside. All that mist from earlier from the fog is starting to freeze up on the grass and trees....snow is starting to stick in some spots. Anyways im beat off to bed for me.....it was nice to see snow falling from the sky at least :) and gotta take what i can get this far south! Guess this is my new classification of a white xmas.....merry christmas man

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Just finished a big Christmas dinner. Man, I am stuffed!

Hope everyone is enjoying their Christmas festivities. I also hope everyone will be checking in over the next few days! Next weekend looks to be a big deal. :)

yeah currently NW of here though :(

Joplinmet thinks it may end up farther south though.

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Here ya go JoMo feast your eyes on this forecast. This is back in my home town of south jersey....millville to be exact. Didnt look like my sister was gonna get anything now it seems like nws back there kinda got snuck up on with it lol. She said it started around 11pm on xmas night. What I would give to see a storm like this lol.

WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO

1 PM EST MONDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 1 PM

EST MONDAY.

* PRECIPITATION TYPE: SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS: TWELVE TO EIGHTEEN INCHES.

* TIMING: BEGINNING SUNDAY MORNING ENDING BY DAWN MONDAY. THE

GREATEST INTENSITY WILL BE NOON SUNDAY UNTIL MIDNIGHT.

* IMPACTS: TRAVEL WILL BECOME HAZARDOUS DUE TO SIGNIFICANT

ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW. BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ARE EXPECTED

WITH GREATLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. TRAVEL IS STRONGLY

DISCOURAGED.

* WINDS: NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS

OVER 40 MPH EXPECTED.

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Interesting read out of TSA this morning:

FORECAST CONCERNS GROW BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS MODEL

DIFFERENCES INCREASE. THE ECMWF...UKMET AND A HANDFUL OF THE GFS

ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HOLD A SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY

BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST BEFORE SWINGING IT ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY

AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AND WILL FOLLOW THESE

SOLUTIONS INSTEAD OF THE OPERATIONAL GFS. VERY COLD SURFACE

TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY THIS

TIME WHICH MEANS ANY PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE NON LIQUID. A

LAYER OF WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL PERSIST MUCH OF SATURDAY ACROSS

PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WHERE A WINTRY

MIX OF FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND EVENTUALLY SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE.

NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA WILL LIKELY SEE PREDOMINANTLY SNOW...WITH A

WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE FOR A TIME FRIDAY NIGHT. IT IS MUCH TOO EARLY

TO SPECULATE ON ANY ACCUMULATIONS BUT AT LEAST SOME LIGHT

ACCUMULATION OF SNOW AND ICE LOOKS QUITE POSSIBLE. STAY TUNED AS

TRAVEL CONDITIONS MAY BE RATHER DICEY AS WE RING IN THE NEW YEAR.

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12z model runs:

GGEM develops a secondary low across SE Texas and takes it NE @ 156 or so. It would produce snow across Arkansas and SE MO. The Euro/UKMET some of the GFS Ensembles were hinting at this last night as mentioned above in the Tulsa discussion.

Euro has this as well, but can't tell if there is any precip.

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12z model runs:

GGEM develops a secondary low across SE Texas and takes it NE @ 156 or so. It would produce snow across Arkansas and SE MO. The Euro/UKMET some of the GFS Ensembles were hinting at this last night as mentioned above in the Tulsa discussion.

Euro has this as well, but can't tell if there is any precip.

12z Euro has approx 0.3-0.7" for Joplin and all of SW MO, all snow.

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The operational runs of tonights 00z models (other than the GGEM which produced a second storm) didn't produce much of anything other than a cold front, the ensembles were different though.

Tulsa said it best:

THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF

THE GFS AND ECMWF NOW AGREE ON DRYING THINGS OUT QUICKLY FRIDAY

EVENING BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HOLD ENERGY

BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AND SPREAD PRECIPITATION...MUCH OF IT

WINTRY...BACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND

SATURDAY. FOR NOW WILL KEEP POPS GOING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND

KEEP THE PRECIPITATION TYPE AS SIMPLE AS POSSIBLE...RAIN OR

SNOW...ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT LIKELY TO BE THAT SIMPLE IF IT DOES

OCCUR. TRYING TO DETERMINE ACCUMULATIONS OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION

IS AN EXERCISE IN FUTILITY THIS FAR OUT IN TIME WITH THE GFS

ENSEMBLE MEMBERS RANGING FROM ZERO TO LARGE AMOUNTS. AS WE SAID

LAST NIGHT...STAY TUNED....AS IT WILL LIKELY BE A FEW DAYS BEFORE

WE CAN GET A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS SYSTEM.

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It is going to be Tuesday or Wednesday before we see any real grasp of the situation by the models. Until then it is important to monitor trends.

KOAM Met Kevin Phelps seems to think this weekend into next week is our best chance at wintery precip this season. If so, let's hope it works out for the best!

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Tulsa really isn't giving up on this:

SO FAR... MODELS HAVE BEEN WISHY-WASHY AND FLIP-FLOPPING WITH REGARD TO POST FRONTAL PRECIPITATION... WITH THE LATEST RUNS COMING IN MOSTLY DRY. THE PREPONDERANCE OF INFORMATION AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME POINTS TO SMALLER PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND LIGHT AMOUNTS. HAVE THEREFORE BACKED OFF SOME ON POPS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY... WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES BEING TOWARD THE SOUTH EAST. THERE COULD BE SMALL ACCUMULATIONS WITH ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DOES FALL... BUT IMPACTS SHOULD NOT BE SIGNIFICANT. HOWEVER... GIVEN MODEL PERFORMANCE AND RELIABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM THUS FAR... AND GIVEN SEASONAL VOLATILITY... TOMORROW MAY PAINT A DIFFERENT PICTURE. AS WAS SAID IN EARLIER DISCUSSIONS... STAY TUNED.

I should just save us all the time and cancel winter right now.

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As much as I hate to say it I'd even take an ice storm at this point. That's sad. lol

A little one is ok but nothing bad. Have you ever been through a really nasty one? I have and dont want to again lol. Not fun not having a generator and no electric for a week or 2 so yea thats why i hate em so much and then theres all the clean up....eh you can have it lol

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A little one is ok but nothing bad. Have you ever been through a really nasty one? I have and dont want to again lol. Not fun not having a generator and no electric for a week or 2 so yea thats why i hate em so much and then theres all the clean up....eh you can have it lol

Yes, I was in the bad storm 2 years ago. We got pounded here in NW Ark. All the national news talked about was Kentucky, but we were hit just as hard. I was without power for 5 days with no generator. It looked like a war zone.

I agree that a bad ice storm would be terrible. I was trying to be funny more than anything since we haven't had any winter yet. I just hate it being in the 30's and dry. If it's going to be dry at least have the temps be comfortable. Cold should equal snow. Too bad it doesn't work that way all the time!!!

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