Wx 24/7 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Great pics!!! Just finished with Christmas at my grandparent's house. I love this time of year. Merry Christmas to everyone here in the thread. I enjoy discussing weather with you year round . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 25, 2010 Author Share Posted December 25, 2010 Winter Weather Advisory re-issued for MO due to freezing drizzle and flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Winter Weather Advisory re-issued for MO due to freezing drizzle and flurries. Man what a crazy forecast its been. Its been snowing here for the past 2 hours but very very light. Temps are dropping off now and its about 32.4 outside. All that mist from earlier from the fog is starting to freeze up on the grass and trees....snow is starting to stick in some spots. Anyways im beat off to bed for me.....it was nice to see snow falling from the sky at least and gotta take what i can get this far south! Guess this is my new classification of a white xmas.....merry christmas man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Merry Christmas all!! Hope everyone has a great day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Merry Christmas all!! Hope everyone has a great day. Merry Christmas to you also my friend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Just finished a big Christmas dinner. Man, I am stuffed! Hope everyone is enjoying their Christmas festivities. I also hope everyone will be checking in over the next few days! Next weekend looks to be a big deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 25, 2010 Author Share Posted December 25, 2010 Just finished a big Christmas dinner. Man, I am stuffed! Hope everyone is enjoying their Christmas festivities. I also hope everyone will be checking in over the next few days! Next weekend looks to be a big deal. yeah currently NW of here though Joplinmet thinks it may end up farther south though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 yeah currently NW of here though Joplinmet thinks it may end up farther south though. Be ashamed to miss that one. Looks like a good one for the middle of the country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Either side of it will be wild... either severe weather or a wintery blast. I would be happy with either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Here ya go JoMo feast your eyes on this forecast. This is back in my home town of south jersey....millville to be exact. Didnt look like my sister was gonna get anything now it seems like nws back there kinda got snuck up on with it lol. She said it started around 11pm on xmas night. What I would give to see a storm like this lol. WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 1 PM EST MONDAY... A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 1 PM EST MONDAY. * PRECIPITATION TYPE: SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS: TWELVE TO EIGHTEEN INCHES. * TIMING: BEGINNING SUNDAY MORNING ENDING BY DAWN MONDAY. THE GREATEST INTENSITY WILL BE NOON SUNDAY UNTIL MIDNIGHT. * IMPACTS: TRAVEL WILL BECOME HAZARDOUS DUE TO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW. BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ARE EXPECTED WITH GREATLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. TRAVEL IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED. * WINDS: NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 40 MPH EXPECTED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Interesting read out of TSA this morning: FORECAST CONCERNS GROW BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS MODEL DIFFERENCES INCREASE. THE ECMWF...UKMET AND A HANDFUL OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HOLD A SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST BEFORE SWINGING IT ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AND WILL FOLLOW THESE SOLUTIONS INSTEAD OF THE OPERATIONAL GFS. VERY COLD SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY THIS TIME WHICH MEANS ANY PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE NON LIQUID. A LAYER OF WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL PERSIST MUCH OF SATURDAY ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WHERE A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND EVENTUALLY SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE. NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA WILL LIKELY SEE PREDOMINANTLY SNOW...WITH A WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE FOR A TIME FRIDAY NIGHT. IT IS MUCH TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE ON ANY ACCUMULATIONS BUT AT LEAST SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF SNOW AND ICE LOOKS QUITE POSSIBLE. STAY TUNED AS TRAVEL CONDITIONS MAY BE RATHER DICEY AS WE RING IN THE NEW YEAR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Thought you might appreciate this as well: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 The 12z GEM seems to be latching onto such a scenario for next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 26, 2010 Author Share Posted December 26, 2010 12z model runs: GGEM develops a secondary low across SE Texas and takes it NE @ 156 or so. It would produce snow across Arkansas and SE MO. The Euro/UKMET some of the GFS Ensembles were hinting at this last night as mentioned above in the Tulsa discussion. Euro has this as well, but can't tell if there is any precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 12z model runs: GGEM develops a secondary low across SE Texas and takes it NE @ 156 or so. It would produce snow across Arkansas and SE MO. The Euro/UKMET some of the GFS Ensembles were hinting at this last night as mentioned above in the Tulsa discussion. Euro has this as well, but can't tell if there is any precip. 12z Euro has approx 0.3-0.7" for Joplin and all of SW MO, all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 26, 2010 Author Share Posted December 26, 2010 12z Euro has approx 0.3-0.7" for Joplin and all of SW MO, all snow. Nice man, Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 12z Euro has approx 0.3-0.7" for Joplin and all of SW MO, all snow. Can we go ahead and lock that in now please? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 12z Euro has approx 0.3-0.7" for Joplin and all of SW MO, all snow. Awesome. Tks for the update. Something to model watch for again this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 27, 2010 Author Share Posted December 27, 2010 The operational runs of tonights 00z models (other than the GGEM which produced a second storm) didn't produce much of anything other than a cold front, the ensembles were different though. Tulsa said it best: THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF NOW AGREE ON DRYING THINGS OUT QUICKLY FRIDAY EVENING BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HOLD ENERGY BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AND SPREAD PRECIPITATION...MUCH OF IT WINTRY...BACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. FOR NOW WILL KEEP POPS GOING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND KEEP THE PRECIPITATION TYPE AS SIMPLE AS POSSIBLE...RAIN OR SNOW...ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT LIKELY TO BE THAT SIMPLE IF IT DOES OCCUR. TRYING TO DETERMINE ACCUMULATIONS OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS AN EXERCISE IN FUTILITY THIS FAR OUT IN TIME WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS RANGING FROM ZERO TO LARGE AMOUNTS. AS WE SAID LAST NIGHT...STAY TUNED....AS IT WILL LIKELY BE A FEW DAYS BEFORE WE CAN GET A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS SYSTEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted December 27, 2010 Share Posted December 27, 2010 It is going to be Tuesday or Wednesday before we see any real grasp of the situation by the models. Until then it is important to monitor trends. KOAM Met Kevin Phelps seems to think this weekend into next week is our best chance at wintery precip this season. If so, let's hope it works out for the best! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 27, 2010 Author Share Posted December 27, 2010 Tulsa really isn't giving up on this: SO FAR... MODELS HAVE BEEN WISHY-WASHY AND FLIP-FLOPPING WITH REGARD TO POST FRONTAL PRECIPITATION... WITH THE LATEST RUNS COMING IN MOSTLY DRY. THE PREPONDERANCE OF INFORMATION AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME POINTS TO SMALLER PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND LIGHT AMOUNTS. HAVE THEREFORE BACKED OFF SOME ON POPS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY... WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES BEING TOWARD THE SOUTH EAST. THERE COULD BE SMALL ACCUMULATIONS WITH ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DOES FALL... BUT IMPACTS SHOULD NOT BE SIGNIFICANT. HOWEVER... GIVEN MODEL PERFORMANCE AND RELIABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM THUS FAR... AND GIVEN SEASONAL VOLATILITY... TOMORROW MAY PAINT A DIFFERENT PICTURE. AS WAS SAID IN EARLIER DISCUSSIONS... STAY TUNED. I should just save us all the time and cancel winter right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted December 28, 2010 Share Posted December 28, 2010 Well TSA has bascially thrown in the towel this morning. Looks like we are not going to get any wintery precip with this next system either... or so it seems at this point. In fact, temps near 60 by week's end will have people in shorts and t-shirts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted December 28, 2010 Share Posted December 28, 2010 The winter without continues... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted December 28, 2010 Share Posted December 28, 2010 This sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 28, 2010 Share Posted December 28, 2010 The way this winter is going none of us may see anything hardly. I was watching these storms but I knew the models would flop around. They are having such a hard time grasping the storms right this year. 60's!!!!!! Insane to be reading 60's possible for january lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 28, 2010 Author Share Posted December 28, 2010 Worst. Winter. Ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 28, 2010 Share Posted December 28, 2010 Worst. Winter. Ever. yea i know....thats the way its looking! Ive seen some bad ones in my time but not this bad so far lol. Jomo my sister got 14" of snow from the sunday-monday storm!!!! Of course she was rubbing it in my face to lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted December 28, 2010 Share Posted December 28, 2010 As much as I hate to say it I'd even take an ice storm at this point. That's sad. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 28, 2010 Share Posted December 28, 2010 As much as I hate to say it I'd even take an ice storm at this point. That's sad. lol A little one is ok but nothing bad. Have you ever been through a really nasty one? I have and dont want to again lol. Not fun not having a generator and no electric for a week or 2 so yea thats why i hate em so much and then theres all the clean up....eh you can have it lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted December 28, 2010 Share Posted December 28, 2010 A little one is ok but nothing bad. Have you ever been through a really nasty one? I have and dont want to again lol. Not fun not having a generator and no electric for a week or 2 so yea thats why i hate em so much and then theres all the clean up....eh you can have it lol Yes, I was in the bad storm 2 years ago. We got pounded here in NW Ark. All the national news talked about was Kentucky, but we were hit just as hard. I was without power for 5 days with no generator. It looked like a war zone. I agree that a bad ice storm would be terrible. I was trying to be funny more than anything since we haven't had any winter yet. I just hate it being in the 30's and dry. If it's going to be dry at least have the temps be comfortable. Cold should equal snow. Too bad it doesn't work that way all the time!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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