JoMo Posted December 22, 2010 Author Share Posted December 22, 2010 Is a strong or weak N stream better? Fast or slow? Since this thing isn't going to phase and gets it act together until it's east of us, we would want the weaker N stream like the NAM, and slower/less interaction.....now if it was going to phase west of us, we'd want the faster stronger solution to wrap up a big storm. You can see this on the 500. There's more vorticity across Iowa and a 'bend' basically on the Iowa/Neb border on the GFS Meanwhile on the NAM at the same time, there isn't really a bend and the 564 line is bent all the way back into Texas You can also see it using the Relative Vorticity maps on the Twisterdata sites @ 500 MB. The GFS energy in the S stream is stretched out to the NE while the NAM is not. It also wants to pop an 850 MB low over NW Missouri due to the stronger N stream while the NAM has one across SW OK, N TX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Man the gfs wxcaster is just bleh while the nam however shows way more snowfall. But we are starting to get closer now to when the nam is better right? The good news is it looks like mostly all snow now for up here. Local forecasts from several different places says 40 percent chance of snow after midnight tomorrow and into friday evening. Im still not buying it. Is it me or has this thing even shifted further south on the models? Im trying to play catchup here now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 What did the latest GGEM and Euro models show? Since I'm a novice at this I know how to read/where to find the GFS and NAM models but the rest of the models are like reading Chinese. They didn't teach me in college how to read weather maps since I was a music major! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Looking like the NAM is on an island by itself. Not good for this region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 22, 2010 Author Share Posted December 22, 2010 meh.. Euro from tombo: hr 54 closed h5 low just northeeast of whichita falls, tx...mod precip in tx and ok....lgt precip northern plains to tx hr 60 closed h5 low just ene of dallas..higher hgts along the ec compare to 0z ..mod precip tx to ok with lgt precip mo to tx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 What did the latest GGEM and Euro models show? Since I'm a novice at this I know how to read/where to find the GFS and NAM models but the rest of the models are like reading Chinese. They didn't teach me in college how to read weather maps since I was a music major! lol Yea those other models look the same to me also lol! The only ones i know anything(and thats very little lol) is the gfs and the nam. Theres so many differences in them still its crazy. And the temps are still borderline of what i see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 22, 2010 Author Share Posted December 22, 2010 What did the latest GGEM and Euro models show? Since I'm a novice at this I know how to read/where to find the GFS and NAM models but the rest of the models are like reading Chinese. They didn't teach me in college how to read weather maps since I was a music major! lol GGEM does show heavier rain to a mix to snow. However, the heavier snow would only last about 1-2 hours max before it all falls apart due to the stronger N Stream butting in and I don't have precip or temp maps for Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I don't like the negative attitudes I am seeing around here. I'm still watching and waiting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B.Sebo Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Remember my winter mantra . . . the NAM always lies. All of our new friends joining us for the first time this winter, let me give you that one piece of advice, even six hours out, NEVER EVER TRUST THE NAM! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 22, 2010 Author Share Posted December 22, 2010 Remember my winter mantra . . . the NAM always lies. All of our new friends joining us for the first time this winter, let me give you that one piece of advice, even six hours out, NEVER EVER TRUST THE NAM! yeah HPC said in their model discussion that the NAM was probably wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Springfields afternoon disco says maybe zr and sleet by daybreak friday over to light snow lasting off and on through xmas morning then flurries. They dont sound very confident yet and are saying 1-3".....still gonna be iffy with temps though. Still all over the place until this thing comes onshore and models can sample it better. ALso sounds like they wanna throw the nam out and going with the gfs and ecmwf Was just checking out the local forecast.....now it says rain and everything else for tomorrow night even before midnight then slop after midnight....they really raised the temps to now a low of 31 tomorrow night and temps raised for friday from 32 to 35.....not looking good Kc's afternoon disco thinks this is going sour fast and not much to be expected.They seem to think it will be a stronger closed low and faster movement (not what we want) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 22, 2010 Author Share Posted December 22, 2010 Well at least I can get to bed at a decent hour now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Springfields afternoon disco says maybe zr and sleet by daybreak friday over to light snow lasting off and on through xmas morning then flurries. They dont sound very confident yet and are saying 1-3".....still gonna be iffy with temps though. Still all over the place until this thing comes onshore and models can sample it better. ALso sounds like they wanna throw the nam out and going with the gfs and ecmwf Was just checking out the local forecast.....now it says rain and everything else for tomorrow night even before midnight then slop after midnight....they really raised the temps to now a low of 31 tomorrow night and temps raised for friday from 32 to 35.....not looking good Kc's afternoon disco thinks this is going sour fast and not much to be expected.They seem to think it will be a stronger closed low and faster movement (not what we want) Now if it were strong and super-slow instead, that would be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joplinmet Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 This is such a wimpy little wave by the time it makes it to us. Take a look at this system last time it came through in this part of the pattern. http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/dwm_500ht_20101102.html Same track with this weak wave on Christmas Eve. However, look down the road. November 10th system around New Years. http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/dwm_500ht_20101110.html Then around the 5th adn 6th of January we should have our November 16th wave. These will give us chances. http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/dwm_500ht_20101116.html Doug Heady Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joplinmet Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 New models are rolling out. Gotta love this time of night, or at least I do, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 New models are rolling out. Gotta love this time of night, or at least I do, lol. Definitely!!! I am curious to see what the GFS and Euro have to say tonight. Will be a late night. I tend to be a little more upbeat than some of the folks around here who talk all doom and gloom. (J/K... you know I appreciate you all! ) The weather is awesome, no matter what type of weather it is. Some weather is just better than others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joplinmet Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Definitely!!! I am curious to see what the GFS and Euro have to say tonight. Will be a late night. I tend to be a little more upbeat than some of the folks around here who talk all doom and gloom. (J/K... you know I appreciate you all! ) The weather is awesome, no matter what type of weather it is. Some weather is just better than others. I agree, the new NAM is a little more impressive and farther north. I am interested to see what the GFS does. It will start coming down here in a little over an hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 23, 2010 Author Share Posted December 23, 2010 Well the NAM isn't too bad. Temps get close to freezing or maybe above it especially along the OK/MO border. Stronger N Stream phasing. If this thing only phased/moved a little more to the west we could get in on some better action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Well the NAM isn't too bad. Temps get close to freezing or maybe above it especially along the OK/MO border. Stronger N Stream phasing. If this thing only phased/moved a little more to the west we could get in on some better action. Why do you think I said that strong and slow would be interesting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 23, 2010 Author Share Posted December 23, 2010 Why do you think I said that strong and slow would be interesting? yeah, too fast and too far east though. If it were to phase farther west of here, that would be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 It doesn't look like it is going to get completely sampled until the 12z runs. I just hope the GFS trends closer to what the NAM shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 23, 2010 Author Share Posted December 23, 2010 It doesn't look like it is going to get completely sampled until the 12z runs. I just hope the GFS trends closer to what the NAM shows. yep, still not fully on land yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 23, 2010 Author Share Posted December 23, 2010 NAM extracted data: Joplin (really on the edge here) Joplinmet has his work cut out for him. http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_KJLN.txt Springfield: (would probably be all snow) http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_KSGF.txt Fayetteville (Close as well): http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_KXNA.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 23, 2010 Author Share Posted December 23, 2010 yeah I'd say slightly different than the 18z NAM 18z NAM @ 60 (Notice the energy over TX?) 00z NAM at 54: (Already merged) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Now if only it would play out like this. Who's willing to bet the GFS is miles different in its solution??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Just when I thought we had finally converged on a similar solution late today out comes the NAM.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 23, 2010 Author Share Posted December 23, 2010 Just when I thought we had finally converged on a similar solution late today out comes the NAM.. 13 mins till the GFS starts and tells us if the NAM is just being stupid or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 13 mins till the GFS starts and tells us if the NAM is just being stupid or not. Is the nam still being the bullish model and throwing the most snow accums? Im just plain out confused now at this point lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 23, 2010 Author Share Posted December 23, 2010 Is the nam still being the bullish model and throwing the most snow accums? Im just plain out confused now at this point lol yeah it phases the energy quicker and increases precip amounts but it's overall faster. GFS starts in 5 mins or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 To my untrained eye the 0z RGEM looks similar to the 0z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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