rockchalk83 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Better hope you get in one of those bands. http://wxcaster.com/...3?STATIONID=ICT No kidding. Given the incredibly dry fall, I would give anything to see some moisture...no matter what form it came in. EDIT: GFS is warmer than NAM thru 48 hrs but generally good agreement between NAM/GFS on placement of system thru 48 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 22, 2010 Author Share Posted December 22, 2010 GFS is a bit warmer as stated above ^ GFS snow depth through 72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 So the track is good, but the temps are too warm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 22, 2010 Author Share Posted December 22, 2010 So the track is good, but the temps are too warm? The track isn't really good either, but you have to take what you get, lol Still a lot of runs to sort this mess out, but either way you look at it, temps are going to be marginal/close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I keep saying this also....its gonna be all about the temps. Will probly be a sloppy heavy wet snow maybe lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 22, 2010 Author Share Posted December 22, 2010 I keep saying this also....its gonna be all about the temps. Will probly be a sloppy heavy wet snow maybe lol. yup, this isn't a typical storm at all. We would basically get the 'front end thump' and that doesn't really happen around here much. GGEM has less precip this run. GFS Ensemble at 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B.Sebo Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Guess I better start paying attention to this one, huh. This southward trend the past 48 hours has my attention, but I do think I will be a bit too far south this time. Maybe I will get another Christmas miracle and be at the pivet point again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Yea jomo this thing is weird and well just weird. I think the chance is there for a decently heavy snow in a short time frame but man the temps. Sux cause its always something that screws us in these parts. Anything can still happen these models are screwy with this one. So at this point what is your thinking? Yes you can guess and we wouldnt hold it against you even if your wrong lol...i wont at least. Im still concerned for zr thursday evening then at this point id say maybe a inch or 2 of snow....unless things change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 22, 2010 Author Share Posted December 22, 2010 Yea jomo this thing is weird and well just weird. I think the chance is there for a decently heavy snow in a short time frame but man the temps. Sux cause its always something that screws us in these parts. Anything can still happen these models are screwy with this one. So at this point what is your thinking? Yes you can guess and we wouldnt hold it against you even if your wrong lol...i wont at least. Im still concerned for zr thursday evening then at this point id say maybe a inch or 2 of snow....unless things change Yeah it's really tough to know at this time though. One run the NAM has more warm air and the next it's back to being colder while the GFS may be the exact opposite. The GFS shows it starting as freezing rain at Springfield but quickly switches to snow. Joplin has rain/freezing rain with a little light snow as the colder air moves in. GGEM would keep you all snow but it's just a quick burst for a couple of hours before it starts tapering off. The Euro is firing up right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 22, 2010 Author Share Posted December 22, 2010 Euro from tombo: hr 60 has a closed h5 low over amarillo... little weaker than 12z...lgt precip over northern plains lgt to mod precip from ks to tex hr 66 has a closed h5 low over whichita falls tx....mod precip over tx and ok... hr 72 has a closed h5 low just west of dallas ...hvy precip in eastern tx and ok...the ridging over the rockies is significantly stronger. hr 78 closed h5 low over dallas...its starting to slow down a lil more than 12z...mod precip over eastern tx la and southern ark...ridge over rockies continues to be more amped hr 84 the h5 low just barely opened up...northern stream is starting to dive down...h5 low is over eastern tex..lgt precip from ill south to tx...mod precip over la ark and etx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omahawx Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Where are you finding the snow depth images at twisterdata? i never knew they had that there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 22, 2010 Author Share Posted December 22, 2010 Where are you finding the snow depth images at twisterdata? i never knew they had that there Under "Winter" on the individual models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Wxcaster snow maps paint 4" for the nam and gfs paint 5" for here. I think I read it right, Twister maps are the same it looks but its harder to see em. Temperatures still an issue its so borderline...just gotta keep watching things change lol. Hopefully for the better and not the worst for us all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 22, 2010 Author Share Posted December 22, 2010 Wxcaster snow maps paint 4" for the nam and gfs paint 5" for here. I think I read it right, Twister maps are the same it looks but its harder to see em. Temperatures still an issue its so borderline...just gotta keep watching things change lol. Hopefully for the better and not the worst for us all yeah I know, dang model runs come out so close together that when one ends, an hour later another begins. 06z NAM starts, well now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Don't really care for the 06z model runs... Meanwhile, Tulsa thinks nothing is going to happen and Springfield thinks a general 1-3" across the region. Hmm... let the guessing commence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 The no snow dude is back! But it does look possible you guys up there have a shot at something. Down here (Im back in eastern OK) will have a little mix or flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 12Z NAM snow depth at 12/25 12Z: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Okie... that covers more of us, which would be a good thing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Okie... that covers more of us, which would be a good thing! Just wanted to post this since no one else has looked at the 12Z yet apparently... still surprised that a SLP doesn't form... by the wording NWS Memphis gives in their AFD it is fairly obvious that they are a bit surprised as well that no model shows a SLP developing. ONE OF THREE SCENARIOS WILL PLAY OUT. ONE IS THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL COMPLETELY MISS THE SOUTHERN ONE...THE SOUTHERN ENERGY WILL DIVE TOO FAR SOUTH...AND THE MIDSOUTH WILL BE SPARED OF ANY PRECIP. ANOTHER IS WHAT THE MODELS ARE CURRENTLY SHOWING...KEEPING THEM FROM PHASING BUT KEEPING THEM SUFFICIENTLY CLOSE TO STILL PROVIDE A LIGHT-MODERATE PRECIP EVENT. THE LAST AND MOST UNLIKELY SCENARIO PHASES THE TWO PIECES OF ENERGY MUCH FASTER AND GIVES US A MORE SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM. NONE OF THE MODELS HAVE EVER SHOWN THE THIRD SCENARIO. If they had no suspicion at all they wouldn't have even mentioned the third option as a possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I just glanced at the 12z NAM and it does look interesting to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 22, 2010 Author Share Posted December 22, 2010 Well the NAM came in a lot colder through the atmosphere, the surface temps were a couple degrees colder as well. Still temps around 30-33 degrees though. Generally 2-4" across the area with a bit more in NW Ark and even Tulsa would see some snow. http://wxcaster.com/...3?STATIONID=INX And the GFS comes in with a stronger N Stream, squashes everything and we end up with nothing and temps 35-40. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Yep the GFS sure is a party pooper this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 22, 2010 Author Share Posted December 22, 2010 Yep the GFS sure is a party pooper this run. I think it's your fault, things were going good until you got here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I'm going to blindly ignore the GFS since it sucks this run. Let's stick with the NAM. When is the next Euro run? It seems to have been the most consistent so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 22, 2010 Author Share Posted December 22, 2010 I'm going to blindly ignore the GFS since it sucks this run. Let's stick with the NAM. When is the next Euro run? It seems to have been the most consistent so far. starts in an hour or so. GGEM has heaviest precip farther south. Overall unimpressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 22, 2010 Author Share Posted December 22, 2010 Of course the GFS blows a huge bomb up to our NW near New Years. Then the next storm is off to our SE, hahaha, that's great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I think it's your fault, things were going good until you got here Dont seem so surprised. But hey its just ONE run right???... For now. I would rather it be dry then be all rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 22, 2010 Author Share Posted December 22, 2010 Dont seem so surprised. But hey its just ONE run right???... For now. I would rather it be dry then be all rain. yeah I was just kidding. It's all going to come down to the strength and speed of the N Stream. I would hate to be a forecaster right now. Accumulating snow on NAM, some rain and flurries on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Wow this thing started going from something to almost nothing now lol. Darn you spot! You jinxed us haha just kidding. The forecast is literally all over the place. The discos dont match my forecast lol....now im starting to become confused Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 yeah I was just kidding. It's all going to come down to the strength and speed of the N Stream. I would hate to be a forecaster right now. Accumulating snow on NAM, some rain and flurries on the GFS. Is a strong or weak N stream better? What about fast vs. slow Unrelated: 12Z NAM for Tulsa: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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