Wx 24/7 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Wow... like this will ever happen! http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=SGF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 21, 2010 Author Share Posted December 21, 2010 Wow... like this will ever happen! http://wxcaster.com/...3?STATIONID=SGF yeah it's some kind of banded feature. The 06z NAM was north and stronger and broke out thunder-ice or snow, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 JoMo, Both the 12z NAM and GFS seem to be coming into better agreement with the Euro and continuing the trend of moving further south. Looks like the s/w moves over Dallas which is good news for all of us. Would you agree? What's your assessment? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 21, 2010 Author Share Posted December 21, 2010 JoMo, Both the 12z NAM and GFS seem to be coming into better agreement with the Euro and continuing the trend of moving further south. Looks like the s/w moves over Dallas which is good news for all of us. Would you agree? What's your assessment? Well, it comes down to temps still. The GFS has more of a trough up this way and keeps temps warmer up into our area, the NAM is a few degrees cooler. That may make all the difference. NWhiteout has the best shot at snow being farther N. Also, I'm not completely sure how strong the upper level storm system is going to be. 06z NAM was much stronger and had stronger vertical motion which cooled the atmosphere and made more snow, even a line of thundersnow or ice across NE OK. 12z NAM doesn't have this but has some kind of banded feature that produces a lot of snow. Springfield gets over 4" of snow in 3 hours. The GFS Ens mean is a little colder and farther south which means some of the ensemble members are colder and farther south. It's still very uncertain, heh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Amazing how confusing and how much the models change. I was reading kc's writeup and looking at forecasts and nws maps for up there. They seem to think the nasty stuff will fall from clinton northward. Of course this dont really mean anything yet cause the models are still gonna flop around some. I think alot with this storm is going to be depending how cold it is where and when during the thing....but who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 21, 2010 Author Share Posted December 21, 2010 And a majority of the GFS Ensemble members are indeed colder (gold line) 72 78 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Should we all start getting excited yet lol? Its starting to look alot better....seems like the models are taking it further and further south on each run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 21, 2010 Author Share Posted December 21, 2010 The Euro is going to remain south of here but with less QPF but probably colder temps. Still a massive spread between all the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 21, 2010 Author Share Posted December 21, 2010 Should we all start getting excited yet lol? Its starting to look alot better....seems like the models are taking it further and further south on each run. Still a lot of differences.... BTW, your sister is going to probably get 1+ ft of snow on the east coast if the Euro is right, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Still a lot of differences.... BTW, your sister is going to probably get 1+ ft of snow on the east coast if the Euro is right, lol Im not gonna say anything to her yet lol....shes like me and loves snow. I think she said shes gotten a little bit here and there allready. I want the kinda snows they got last year man it was sick! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 21, 2010 Author Share Posted December 21, 2010 Compared to 00z runs: GGEM = Progressive and farthest north, pretty consistent with previous run. NAM = Farther south, looks much like the Euro. GFS = Farther south, but not as far S as the Euro. EURO = Consistent with the farthest south solution. UKMET = Like the Euro but slower HPC prefers NAM/Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Like i said I think temps are gonna be the big player. I dont see it getting cold enough for snow that will stick idk. If this thing can dig south more and pull in more colder air we will be set. Its just a waiting game now to see what happens. Just my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 21, 2010 Author Share Posted December 21, 2010 84 hour NAM snow/ice on the ground 18z NAM. Temps are insanely close and it could go either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Yea i just got done looking at some stuff and reading springfields afternoon disco....they are thinking rain over to zr thursday night then maybe just maybe some light snow on friday with maybe an inch or 2 lol. This can go bad or good still i guess. The temps are still the iffy part i agree. They were talking about watches going out probly tomorrow....way to soon to be doing that i think idk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 If things continue to trend south I'm guessing that Springfield, Wichita, and Tulsa (maybe) will all consider issuing watches earlier than normal since it's over the Christmas holiday. They would rather jump on it early and give people enough warning then waiting too long. I'm still not convinced. I may feel better this time tomorrow if the southern track continues to verify. I think tomorrow is D-day to really see what the models do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 If things continue to trend south I'm guessing that Springfield, Wichita, and Tulsa (maybe) will all consider issuing watches earlier than normal since it's over the Christmas holiday. They would rather jump on it early and give people enough warning then waiting too long. I'm still not convinced. I may feel better this time tomorrow if the southern track continues to verify. I think tomorrow is D-day to really see what the models do. LOL... Norman might issue an early watch, but I highly doubt Tulsa will do it... OUN tends to overhype, whereas Tulsa is a stickler with the watches/warnings... they actually once said on their discussion "Not issuing a Blizzard Warning since sustained winds are only 34 mph"... or something to that accord. (Side note: one of the qualifiers of a Blizzard Warning is sustained winds or frequent gusts of 35 mph or more) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 21, 2010 Author Share Posted December 21, 2010 If things continue to trend south I'm guessing that Springfield, Wichita, and Tulsa (maybe) will all consider issuing watches earlier than normal since it's over the Christmas holiday. They would rather jump on it early and give people enough warning then waiting too long. I'm still not convinced. I may feel better this time tomorrow if the southern track continues to verify. I think tomorrow is D-day to really see what the models do. Yeah, the system should be far enough on shore by tomorrow nights 00z runs in order to be properly sampled. Our biggest problem is with temps, the system is somewhat cutoff from the colder air until after the phase so it's going to have to make due with the stale air that's around. It's all within a couple degrees of freezing currently. Also the 18z NAM showed a warm nose around 850 MB a little farther north. Edit: Must be some collaboration going on cause the AFD's are not out yet for a lot of areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Yeah, the system should be far enough on shore by tomorrow nights 00z runs in order to be properly sampled. Our biggest problem is with temps, the system is somewhat cutoff from the colder air until after the phase so it's going to have to make due with the stale air that's around. It's all within a couple degrees of freezing currently. Also the 18z NAM showed a warm nose around 850 MB a little farther north. Edit: Must be some collaboration going on cause the AFD's are not out yet for a lot of areas. I just read Little Rock's AFD and they are buying into the colder, southern solution for now. Calling for some type of frozen precip all the way down to Little Rock Metro by Friday morning. IN ANY CASE A COMPACT UPPER TROUGH WILL EXIT THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES FRI AND MOVE TOWARDS ARKANSAS BY FRI EVENING. MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE NOW TAKING THE SHORTWAVE ACROSS CENTRAL ARKANSAS FRI EVENING...WITH THE ASSOC SFC LOW OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA. TRENDING TOWARDS A NAM/ECMWF SOLUTION...PRECIPITATION SHOULD NOT START FALLING UNTIL FRI NIGHT...BUT DO HAVE SOME CHANCE POPS IN FOR FRI MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT LIQUID PRECIP INITIALLY...WITH A GRADUAL CHANGEOVER TO RAIN/SNOW MIX OR ALL SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH. LOCALES IN THE NORTH SHOULD START GETTING A RAIN/SNOW MIX BEGINNING A FEW HOURS AFTER MIDNIGHT FRI NIGHT. THE LINE BETWEEN ALL LIQUID AND RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT...LIKELY ENDING UP JUST SOUTH OF THE LITTLE ROCK METRO AREA SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK CHRISTMAS MORNING. GIVEN THE UNKNOWNS...SFC TEMPS AT THE START OF THE EVENT...FINAL PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER DISTURBANCE AND THE ASSOC SFC LOW...ETC...PRECLUDE ME FROM ADDING IN A LOT OF VARIED PRECIP TYPES AT THIS TIME. I AM SURE THERE WILL BE AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET IN THIS EVENT...BUT IT IS TOO DIFFICULT TO TELL EXACTLY WHERE THESE POCKETS ARE GOING TO OCCUR. LIKEWISE BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTIES...WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION OF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TOO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Yeah, the system should be far enough on shore by tomorrow nights 00z runs in order to be properly sampled. Our biggest problem is with temps, the system is somewhat cutoff from the colder air until after the phase so it's going to have to make due with the stale air that's around. It's all within a couple degrees of freezing currently. Also the 18z NAM showed a warm nose around 850 MB a little farther north. Edit: Must be some collaboration going on cause the AFD's are not out yet for a lot of areas. Tulsa's out now... mentions flurries on the back side... bet OUN will mention a bit more than TSA did given their natural tendencies lol Also, definitely one to watch, as a lot of that precip falls in air that is below 4C all the way from the surface to 500mb... to put that in perspective, the NWS and most other forecasters said it would be 4.5C warmer today than it ended up being. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Tulsa is always the grinch on winter weather... Norman is always the opposite. Springfield usually wonders when it will warm up so they can issue faulty tornado warnings for Barton County, MO. Little Rock discussion is interesting... we shall see if the cold air can win out or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 21, 2010 Author Share Posted December 21, 2010 Tulsa is always the grinch on winter weather... Norman is always the opposite. Springfield usually wonders when it will warm up so they can issue faulty tornado warnings for Barton County, MO. Little Rock discussion is interesting... we shall see if the cold air can win out or not. hahaha. that's funny. we need a thundersnownado warning. GFS is out through 78. I'm calling 'screwy'. It would be better than the NAM as it is colder though, I just don't like the rapid weakening of the low and NE shift, looks like it's trying to phase quicker. EDIT: It looks like cold air would get trapped in Arkansas this run. Pretty decent hit for everyone but poor Oklahoma this run of the GFS though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 hahaha. that's funny. we need a thundersnownado warning. GFS is out through 78. I'm calling 'screwy'. It would be better than the NAM as it is colder though, I just don't like the rapid weakening of the low and NE shift, looks like it's trying to phase quicker. EDIT: It looks like cold air would get trapped in Arkansas this run. Pretty decent hit for everyone but poor Oklahoma this run of the GFS though At least the 1" boundary is trending in the right direction (southwest), and the last couple of runs have shown backside flurries for OK... something that hasn't been shown by the GFS for anywhere SW of Miami in a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 21, 2010 Author Share Posted December 21, 2010 Springfield Online briefing... They don't sound very confident. (4 PM) http://www.crh.noaa.gov/sgf/?n=webbriefing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Springfield Online briefing... They don't sound very confident. (4 PM) http://www.crh.noaa..../?n=webbriefing NO they dont but their forecast has been all over the place...as usual. I dont think they know yet and its still up in the air.Some of that data you posted looks nice though man for most of us. Hell id be happy if we can get 2" lol. Im more concerned with freezing rain at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 If things continue to trend south I'm guessing that Springfield, Wichita, and Tulsa (maybe) will all consider issuing watches earlier than normal since it's over the Christmas holiday. They would rather jump on it early and give people enough warning then waiting too long. I'm still not convinced. I may feel better this time tomorrow if the southern track continues to verify. I think tomorrow is D-day to really see what the models do. Perhaps of there was a consensus of the models all going much colder, then I could see WFO's running the watch flag up the pole. Remember, the criteria for issuing a winter storm watch in the SGF, TOP, EAX, ICT CWA's are for .25" ice or greater, or 6" of snow in 12 hours. Only the snow criteria is down slightly for OUN, TSA's CWA's (4" snow in 12 hours needed for watch). Right now as things stand, this looks like an advisory event at best for our general area, especially with the temperature profiles being on the fence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Perhaps of there was a consensus of the models all going much colder, then I could see WFO's running the watch flag up the pole. Remember, the criteria for issuing a winter storm watch in the SGF, TOP, EAX, ICT CWA's are for .25" ice or greater, or 6" of snow in 12 hours. Only the snow criteria is down slightly for OUN, TSA's CWA's (4" snow in 12 hours needed for watch). Right now as things stand, this looks like an advisory event at best for our general area, especially with the temperature profiles being on the fence. Good point. Thanks for clarifying. I was really using the word "watch" in a more generic term to include advisories. Too bad this doesn't look like the big one though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Been out a few days so trying to catch up on the thread tonite. So we're looking at a possible winter event here by Friday eh? Model runs I'm looking at dont look overly impressive and temps certainly look marginal. I see the new NAM tonite looks a bit slower as well so we're still a ways out on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 22, 2010 Author Share Posted December 22, 2010 NAM extracted: Joplin hangs around 32-33 degrees.. Looks like it would probably be all snow. Around 0.5" QPF Springfield around 30-32 degrees. Looks like it would be all snow. Around 0.30-0.40" QPF Fayetteville hangs around 33 degrees. Looks like a mixed bag with around 0.25-0.30 QPF Wichita would get several inches of snow as well, NAM extracted prints out over 6" as snow. 00z NAM went back to it's 12zish solution with a weaker band. It is colder though. It looks a lot like the Euro actually, heh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 For this run atleast, the NAM is considerably slower and colder than its predecessor runs. 925 mb temps (roughly 1000 feet AGL) is around 0 deg C which would indicate more of a sleet->snow type event for most of S KS, SW MO and NE OK. Current indications are for a 1-4" sleet/snow combo in this area. Sleet is a lot more treacherous to drive on so lets hope its snow. Will definitely be interested in the GFS which should be rolling in shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 22, 2010 Author Share Posted December 22, 2010 For this run atleast, the NAM is considerably slower and colder than its predecessor runs. 925 mb temps (roughly 1000 feet AGL) is around 0 deg C which would indicate more of a sleet->snow type event for most of S KS, SW MO and NE OK. Current indications are for a 1-4" sleet/snow combo in this area. Sleet is a lot more treacherous to drive on so lets hope its snow. Will definitely be interested in the GFS which should be rolling in shortly. Better hope you get in one of those bands. http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=ICT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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