NE OK/ NW AR/ SE KS/ SW MO Winter 2010

[JoMo]

Me to man right now they mention maybe backside of the storm to be light snow or flurries on friday evening....i hope it goes further south. I think the gfs and ecmf whatever the hell that model is showed it more south by what springfield said.

00z GFS is slower, stronger, hair farther south this run with the Christmas eve'ish storm. Just not cold enough.

Also holy crap @ GFS long range. Completely different from 12z. Big Arctic outbreak across most of the US.

EDIT: 00z Euro looks a lot like the 00z GFS.

[Wx 24/7]

The 00z GFS Snowfall depth does have some snow on the ground for us (although much less than an inch) for Christmas. At this point, I'll take what I can get.

The model flip last night is interesting, but I want to see if this is a long term switch or just a blip.

[JoMo]

UPDATE: 12z Euro came in farther south as well.

As of 12z GFS today.

Looks like the Christmas Eve storm would end as possibly some kind of frozen precip as the system exits (SW MO). GFS was a bit farther south again. I don't know how it can pick out the energy and make the forecast because just off the west coast there is all kinds of energy.

Also, complete 180 in the long range from last nights run again. (Around Day 9)

[JoMo]

Springfield:THE COLD FRONT AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY MORNING.MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SUGGESTING A TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO A WINTRYMIX FRIDAY MORNING TO EVENTUALLY LIGHT SNOW WHICH WILL END FROMWEST TO EAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON. IT IS TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE ONACCUMULATIONS AT THIS TIME BUT THIS SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BEMONITORED THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING WEEK FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOMEWINTER WEATHER IMPACTING THE MISSOURI OZARKS.

[Wx 24/7]

This is a start:

http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=SGF

[JoMo]

This is a start:

http://wxcaster.com/...3?STATIONID=SGF

Yeah the 18z GFS is farther north. Trying to phase in some N Stream energy.

The Euro was farther south and probably a better hit for here.

EDIT: 18z GFS long range is really crazy. Too bad it won't verify because the GFS is having troubles even 180 out.

[JoMo]

Bunch of weird runs on the models tonight.

GFS would have us ending as maybe some flurries. GGEM shows snow in Missouri. Euro would show some snow probably with the best chances across Arkansas and Oklahoma.

[JoMo]

Update 12z.

All 12z models have us in the wintry frozen precip game now. Euro is still farthest south and slowest. GFS farthest north.

[The Waterboy]

JoMo,

What about us in NWA? I know the GFS is just a bit too far north, but still further south than the 00Z and 06z runs.

How does the Euro and other models look for NWA snow?

[JoMo]

JoMo,

What about us in NWA? I know the GFS is just a bit too far north, but still further south than the 00Z and 06z runs.

How does the Euro and other models look for NWA snow?

UPDATED:

GGEM precip type maps show a heavy rain to heavy mix to heavy snow for those in SE KS/SW MO, this translates to the SE quicker but NW ARK would eventually get in on the snow action on the GGEM.

It's a little uncertain because I don't have the precip type maps for GGEM and Euro and I don't have precip maps for Euro at all. GFS does end the precip there as snow and GFS is the farthest north. The other solutions would probably be colder as they are farther south.

Still 5 or so days left until the storm is here and for all I know, it may end up over Iowa, lol

[Wx 24/7]

The trend is good, but knowing our luck the snowstorm will now track south of us across the Gulf Coast states. LOL

[NwWhiteOut]

UPDATED:

GGEM precip type maps show a heavy rain to heavy mix to heavy snow for those in SE KS/SW MO, this translates to the SE quicker but NW ARK would eventually get in on the snow action on the GGEM.

It's a little uncertain because I don't have the precip type maps for GGEM and Euro and I don't have precip maps for Euro at all. GFS does end the precip there as snow and GFS is the farthest north. The other solutions would probably be colder as they are farther south.

Still 5 or so days left until the storm is here and for all I know, it may end up over Iowa, lol

Oh im gonna be mad if you guys get stuff down there on xmas eve and i get squat lol.....right now they say it has to be watched and could go from light rain over to snow friday and frid. evening.....man im burnt from shopping and wrapping gifts i need some snow to bring me back up haha....oh wait maybe some coffee instead for now

[JoMo]

Oh im gonna be mad if you guys get stuff down there on xmas eve and i get squat lol.....right now they say it has to be watched and could go from light rain over to snow friday and frid. evening.....man im burnt from shopping and wrapping gifts i need some snow to bring me back up haha....oh wait maybe some coffee instead for now

You would probably be all snow on the GGEM. Mod-Heavy.

[JoMo]

OKC broke their record high today, they are at 74. heh

[NwWhiteOut]

You would probably be all snow on the GGEM. Mod-Heavy.

I can live with that lol....u do know im closer to you guys though now right? I move alot haha...im about 40 miles north of springfield now. I wouldnt want all the snow though i want us all to get something....im not a greedy IMBY person lol. How likely is this to verify right now jomo if you were to guess? 10 percent chance haha?

[JoMo]

I can live with that lol....u do know im closer to you guys though now right? I move alot haha...im about 40 miles north of springfield now. I wouldnt want all the snow though i want us all to get something....im not a greedy IMBY person lol. How likely is this to verify right now jomo if you were to guess? 10 percent chance haha?

No guesses. A ton can change in 4 days especially with this type of setup.

You would be snow according to this.

[Wx 24/7]

WOW! Look at the very deep blues... that would be some pretty intense snowfall. At least we will have something to track finally, even if it does turn out to be all rain.

[JoMo]

Springfield, MO discussion this afternoon:

THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH AND COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE FRONT WILL NOT MOVE THROUGH THE GULF COAST
REGION WHICH MEANS GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE WILL BE A PLAYER WITH
THE NEXT SYSTEM AS MOISTURE WILL SURGE NORTHWARD LATER THIS WEEK. MODELS
HAVE BEEN TRENDING SLIGHTLY COLDER WITH THE MID WEEK AIRMASS AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN WEST INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY THURSDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN
TRENDING SOUTHWARD AND COLDER WITH THE 12Z RUNS. THE GFS KEEPS THE
SYSTEM MORE OPEN THAN THE ECMWF AND A LITTLE QUICKER. THE ECMWF
IS A LITTLE MORE TO THE SOUTH THAN THE GFS. THE GFS IS A LITTLE
WARMER THAN THE ECMWF AND THE ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST MORE OF A WINTER
WEATHER IMPACT FOR THE OZARKS. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
EXACT TRACK AND HOW MUCH COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE AT THIS TIME.
THE FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE TWO FOR NOW. CURRENT THINKING IS
THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE EASTWARD OUT OF NEW MEXICO ACROSS THE
RED RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE
INITIALLY ON THURSDAY MORNING AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR SOME
LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE EARLY BEFORE TEMPERATURES WARM UP ABOVE
FREEZING. EXPECTING MAINLY A COLD RAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE COLDER AIR SURGES BACK IN. RAIN
WILL CHANGE OVER TO A WINTRY MIX AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. BY FRIDAY
MORNING...EXPECTING A TRANSITION TO MAINLY LIGHT SNOW FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OZARKS AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
MOVES IN AT MID LEVELS. LIGHT SNOW WILL TAPERING OFF BY FRIDAY
EVENING. WITH THE LATEST MODEL RUNS...THERE IS SOME QUESTION ON
POTENTIAL ACCUMULATIONS. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION SOME AREAS
WILL SEE SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ON CHRISTMAS EVE. THIS POTENTIAL
SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AND THE FORECAST WILL BE FINE
TUNED AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES.

Wichita:

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY:
THIS IS THE PERIOD OF INTEREST WITH REGARD TO A POTENTIAL WINTERY
WEATHER. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN AT LEAST SOMEWHAT
CONSISTENT FROM RUN-TO-RUN THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS...LENDING
CREDENCE TO BOTH SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER...WHEN COMPARING THE GFS AND
ECMWF WITH OTHER MODELS SUCH AS THE CANADIAN AND UKMET...IT APPEARS
THE ECMWF IS THE OUTLIER...COMING IN SLOWER AND DEEPER THAN THE
CONSENSUS. CONSEQUENTLY...FAVORED THE GFS A BIT HEAVIER...BUT
WITHOUT DISCOUNTING THE ECMWF SINCE THIS SYSTEM IS STILL SEVERAL
DAYS OUT. THAT SAID...THINKING THE CHANCE FOR WINTERY PRECIPITATION
WILL INCREASE FROM LATE WED NIGHT THROUGH THU...WITH THU NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY FRI THE BEST CHANCES. PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE
LOOKS TO BE DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE WED NIGHT THROUGH THU DUE
TO SHALLOW COLD AIR AND LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE/LIFT. PRECIPITATION
COULD THEN MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST THU NIGHT
AND PERSIST INTO FRIDAY MORNING. DESPITE WHICH MODEL SOLUTION
VERIFIES...THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A MAJOR WINTER STORM AT THIS
TIME...BUT COULD CERTAINLY CAUSE SOME PRE-CHRISTMAS TRAVEL
HEADACHES. STAY TUNED...AS THE FORECAST WILL BE FINE TUNED OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.

Topeka:

THE TRANQUILITY ENDS THURSDAY MORNING AS SYSTEM CURRENTLY OUT
ABOUT 135W MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
BEGINS TO BRING PRECIPITATION TO OUR AREA. WITH SEVERAL DAYS OUT
BEFORE THE SYSTEM GETS ONSHORE AND INTO THE PLAINS...BIG CAVEAT IS
THAT THERE WILL LIKELY BE MANY CHANGES IN MODEL DEPICTIONS OF THIS
SYSTEM. DISCONCERTING AT THIS POINT IS THE WARM AIR ALOFT THAT
RIDES IN OVER THE COLD DOME OF AIR IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE...HOW
WARM AND DEEP THAT LAYER CAN BECOME...THEN HOW QUICKLY THE SYSTEM
CAN MOVE EAST AND BRING A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE
OF THE SYSTEM. RUNS HAVE TRENDED TO SLOW A BIT WITH EACH RUN...AND
GET SLIGHTLY COLDER. A LOOK AT THE GFS SPAGHETTI PLOTS SHOW THAT
THE EC IS CONSIDERABLY DIFFERENT THAN THESE...FARTHER SOUTH AND
COLDER. SOME HOPE HAD BEEN GIVEN TO THE WARM NOSE BEING NEARLY 5C
EARLY ON KEEPING SOUTHERN COUNTIES INITIALLY AS RAIN...HOWEVER
THAT APPEARS TO BE COOLING SUCH THAT NOW MODEL SOUNDINGS LEAN
TOWARD FREEZING RAIN THEN SLEET BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO SNOW. BEST
ESTIMATE FORECAST AT THIS TIME...WHICH IS A SELF MADE BLEND OF A
TOP DOWN GFS FORECAST WITH SOME ADDITIONAL COLDER PRECIP TYPES
ADDED IN SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE...WOULD KEEP THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES IN A SNOW / SNOW SLEET MIX FOLLOWED BY SNOW OVERNIGHT.
FURTHER SOUTHWARD...THE WARM AIR IMPACTS THE PRECIP TYPES...AND
HAVE A BAND OF SNOW/ICE/FREEZING RAIN FOLLOWED WITH A
RAIN/FREEZING RAIN MIX TO THE SOUTH. LATER IN THE PERIOD...AFTER
MIDNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...THERE IS EVEN THE HINT OF A TROWAL
FEATURE NOSING INTO NE KS WHICH COULD BRING A QUICK ROUND OF
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. QPF BANDS
AT THIS TIME ARE HEAVIER IN THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA...SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR TO DECIDE HOW MUCH WILL FALL AS
RAIN...OR AS A WINTRY MIX / SNOW. STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES...AS THE
FORECAST WILL BE ADJUSTED AS THURSDAY DRAWS CLOSER.

lol Tulsa has no mention of anything:

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS.
THERE COULD ALSO BE A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
WHERE THE ELEVATED INSTABILITIES WILL BE FAVORABLE.
THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END FRIDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE
THE NEXT SHOT OF COLD AIR CAN INVADE THE AREA IN THE WAKE
OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.

[NwWhiteOut]

JoMo hats off to you man for such a good job you do all the time keeping us all informed on these storms! It really helps cause i cant comprehend this stuff like you guys do. I got short term memory so most everything goes in the brain then poof into the air somewhere lol. Keep us informed ok....this is starting to look and sound interesting now. I know its a ways off and can flop around though so im not getting my hopes up to high yet....i really dont wanna at xmas time cause this is the times i get really dissapointed lol

[JoMo]

JoMo hats off to you man for such a good job you do all the time keeping us all informed on these storms! It really helps cause i cant comprehend this stuff like you guys do. I got short term memory so most everything goes in the brain then poof into the air somewhere lol. Keep us informed ok....this is starting to look and sound interesting now. I know its a ways off and can flop around though so im not getting my hopes up to high yet....i really dont wanna at xmas time cause this is the times i get really dissapointed lol

Yeah, I enjoy it, plus I can always come back and look at what went wrong.

Kansas City had an amazing discussion (thunder ice) etc..etc.

http://www.wunderground.com/DisplayDisc.asp?DiscussionCode=EAX&StateCode=MO&SafeCityName=Kansas_City

[Wx 24/7]

Tulsa's discussions are usually not very insightful. Great discussion by EAX, however.

[JoMo]

18z GFS would bring mostly rain, heh

[NwWhiteOut]

I meant to comment on that map....I saw it also jomo. Whats the deal with the wintry mix on the east and west side then sleet/snow in the middle lol. Just confusing sometimes with their stuff. Right now it shows sleet/snow for here almost borderline of all snow. Whens the models update again, some at midnight?

[JoMo]

I meant to comment on that map....I saw it also jomo. Whats the deal with the wintry mix on the east and west side then sleet/snow in the middle lol. Just confusing sometimes with their stuff. Right now it shows sleet/snow for here almost borderline of all snow. Whens the models update again, some at midnight?

I dunno.

NAM starts running at 7:45. GFS at 9:30.

The 18z GFS came in farther north and was warmer. We'll see what happens.

[NwWhiteOut]

I dunno.

NAM starts running at 7:45. GFS at 9:30.

The 18z GFS came in farther north and was warmer. We'll see what happens.

See told you i cant remember anything lol. I know you told me several times in the past to when stuff updates, sorry man. And yea we will have to wait and see its just to far off still.

[JoMo]

00z runs:

Waiting on the Euro.......

I'm still not sure what's going to happen. The models seem to be coming into better agreement but the temp profiles are really close.

For instance, the GFS @ 84 hours has it 35 and rain while the NAM has 1.2" of snow for Joplin with a temp of 33.

84 hour GFS has it 34 and possibly rain at Springfield while the NAM has it 31 with sleet.

Fayetteville, AR @ 84 hour GFS is 38 and rain while NAM is 33 and rain.

GGEM precip maps aren't out yet, but it would probably be colder.

The GFS long range is really wild with a lot of snow chances but that could change next run so who knows.

[NwWhiteOut]

The wxcaster snowfall maps are bleh....this thing needs to go south more on future model runs lol. Heaviest snows just to my damn north and northeast....I should have stayed in clinton haha

[JoMo]

The wxcaster snowfall maps are bleh....this thing needs to go south more on future model runs lol. Heaviest snows just to my damn north and northeast....I should have stayed in clinton haha

The Euro is still south on the 00z , heh. It seems to like that far south track. I think Arkansas and Oklahoma would benefit more it's so far south but precip type probably would be all snow up here.

[NwWhiteOut]

The Euro is still south on the 00z , heh. It seems to like that far south track. I think Arkansas and Oklahoma would benefit more it's so far south but precip type probably would be all snow up here.

Crazy how the things can differ from run to run! Yea we dont want it to far south....wed get snow but not as much. Always about perfect timing and that perfect track here it seems.

[Wx 24/7]

12z NAM has a pretty good snowstorm cranking up overhead. Psshhh... like that will ever happen!