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NE OK/ NW AR/ SE KS/ SW MO Winter 2010

JoMo

By JoMo,
in Central/Western States

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JoMo

JoMo

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OK guys. I need an education here because I willingly admit I'm a novice who tinkers with all this weather model stuff. I understand we're under a strong La Nina and the winter is supposed to be warm/dry blah, blah, blah. However, the NAO and AO are currently negative which from my understanding is a good thing. Also, something about blocking up near Greenland and northwest flow, etc... So, what does all this mean? Obviously it's not a great pattern for winter weather accept it isn't blazing hot in the 60's and 70's. Apparently the long range outlook has that coming in Jan/Feb.

What's the scoop? What is the best setup for snow? Negative NAO/AO? Strong southern jet? Etc... Any insight you could give would be cool just for my general learning curve.

Thanks.

Negative AO promotes a farther south displacement of colder temps and storm track. We had a negative AO last year, but we also had a strong El-Nino which created a strong sub-tropical jet.

La Nina's typically don't have strong sub-tropical jet streams and the northern jet stream dominates.

The blocking up near Greenland is the -NAO. It's actually been causing NW flow over our area. NW flow is typically a dry flow in this area. We need the big -NAO to go away. We also need help from the Pacific.

We see our best chances for snow when storms dig into the west and eject out across the southern states. Unfortunately there isn't a big chance of that happening for the next 16 days according to the latest GFS.

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The Waterboy

The Waterboy

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Negative AO promotes a farther south displacement of colder temps and storm track. We had a negative AO last year, but we also had a strong El-Nino which created a strong sub-tropical jet.

La Nina's typically don't have strong sub-tropical jet streams and the northern jet stream dominates.

The blocking up near Greenland is the -NAO. It's actually been causing NW flow over our area. NW flow is typically a dry flow in this area. We need the big -NAO to go away. We also need help from the Pacific.

We see our best chances for snow when storms dig into the west and eject out across the southern states. Unfortunately there isn't a big chance of that happening for the next 16 days according to the latest GFS.

JoMo,

Awesome recap. That's what I needed. I have been thinking the big -NAO was a good thing for us. Apparently not. I kept reading about the NW flow too. I've lived in NWA for 35 years so the southern storm track is something I'm well familiar with. Our best chances for snow are when the low tracks from Dallas to Texarkana towards Memphis.

Regarding the NAO, do we need it to be more towards neutral or slightly negative? I'm assuming a +NAO isn't any better.

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NwWhiteOut

NwWhiteOut

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It's sad when freezing drizzle is a big thing :(

No kidding and not even alot or anything expected....hell last time they did this on thanksgiving not one drop of rain snow or zr fell. Its the events they make such a big deal over that nothing happens on usually it seems. Then the events that say 50 percent chance of snow (last storm) cracked me up and it snowed all evening and covered the ground. I dont know sometimes i really get frustrated with springfields call on things but thats just me. To me it looks sporadic and confined to eastern missouri but what do i know lol.

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JoMo

JoMo

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JoMo,

Awesome recap. That's what I needed. I have been thinking the big -NAO was a good thing for us. Apparently not. I kept reading about the NW flow too. I've lived in NWA for 35 years so the southern storm track is something I'm well familiar with. Our best chances for snow are when the low tracks from Dallas to Texarkana towards Memphis.

Regarding the NAO, do we need it to be more towards neutral or slightly negative? I'm assuming a +NAO isn't any better.

There was actually a study that showed the best snowfall in SW MO and how we got there, also compared el-nino and la-nina and the PDO phase.

http://solberg.snr.missouri.edu/gcc/sgfsnowsrevis3.pdf

I think we actually do the best in ENSO neutral years and you are correct on the best storm track.

I'm not sure about the strength of the NAO in relation to what it will cause around here. I just know what to look for on the models. (trough dipping down in the west)

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NwWhiteOut

NwWhiteOut

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Yea JoMo looks drab and mega boring doesnt it lol. This forecast for tonight, for this area anyhow has been off a lil(nothing new there lol). Temps dont wanna budge below 32.8 and its just been misty all night but yet still in an advisory "sigh". Lets see thats 0-3 now for springfield on the winter forecasts so far with all the lil storms and 2 advisories so far. I think they should have just left the advisory out for down this way further west. I do hear the roads are bad out in northeast missouri though. Anything happening down in your neck of the woods there?

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JoMo

JoMo

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Yea JoMo looks drab and mega boring doesnt it lol. This forecast for tonight, for this area anyhow has been off a lil(nothing new there lol). Temps dont wanna budge below 32.8 and its just been misty all night but yet still in an advisory "sigh". Lets see thats 0-3 now for springfield on the winter forecasts so far with all the lil storms and 2 advisories so far. I think they should have just left the advisory out for down this way further west. I do hear the roads are bad out in northeast missouri though. Anything happening down in your neck of the woods there?

34 with a foggy mist.

I did notice the 240 hour Euro is opposite the GFS. It has a big trough in the SW.

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JoMo

JoMo

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Edit 18z GFS is much different than the 12z.

Been some changes on the models today.

There may be some flurries in Oklahoma and Arkansas tonight through tomorrow.

The GFS shows a system that neither the Euro or GGEM have along the west coast @ 144 and on from there. In fact, at 168. The GFS has us in a trough while the Euro has us in a ridge.

The long range GFS around Day 10 shows the trough building more to the west:

In the long long range at the first of the year, we see it as having built across the US, which would result in a fast (cold) zonal flow:

The Euro has a ridge over us @ 240 with a storm gathering in the west that would probably pass to the west of here.

Of course this is just 1 run, but there really isn't anything to talk about, heh

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NwWhiteOut

NwWhiteOut

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Yea i noticed this also jomo....the other models are just blah and dry and boring for long range of what i seen and know. I also see the storm today passing south of us but seen a few rogue snow flurries allready here and there. Just spotty off and on crap.....blah lol. We need something to happen this is so boring

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JoMo

JoMo

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Yea i noticed this also jomo....the other models are just blah and dry and boring for long range of what i seen and know. I also see the storm today passing south of us but seen a few rogue snow flurries allready here and there. Just spotty off and on crap.....blah lol. We need something to happen this is so boring

Maybe headed for a Christmas Eve miracle on the 18z GFS? :-p

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JoMo

JoMo

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Yea wouldnt it be nice to see this...same as last year :) Im not buying it....wayyyyy to far off still. Hopefully it sticks with later runs....yea right i need to wake up as well lol.

Not confident it will be on the 00z at all. If it does happen, I expect the storm to be up across Iowa on Minnesota.

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JoMo

JoMo

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The GFS was actually the first to detect the vigorous wave that they are talking about here. It looks to be too far north currently.

From Springfields morning discussion:

THE GFS SHOWS SURFACE DEW POINTS INCREASING BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID50S BY THURSDAY EVENING. IF THIS SOLUTION WAS TO PAN OUT...THEOZARKS AIRMASS WOULD BECOME SUFFICIENTLY UNSTABLE FOR AN EPISODE OFTHUNDERSTORMS. WE ALSO CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SNOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE COLD FRONT FOR FRIDAY. KEEP IN MIND THAT THESE DETAILSREALLY NEED TO BE ANALYZED THROUGH THE WEEK WHEN MODELS CAN GRASPTHE SITUATION A LITTLE BETTER. WILL WAIT TO MENTION THIS WITHIN THEHAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK UNTIL THESE SIGNALS BECOME MORE CONSISTENT

WITH FUTURE MODEL RUNS.

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okie333

okie333

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haha like that'll ever happen. :D

EDIT: Storm is faster on the 12z GFS compared to the 00z last night. It's also still too far north.

Southward trend, though still too far north. Shows backside flurries for Missouri on 12/24. Agreed on the model making it fly past the area... however I would use caution since the super-negative AO really doesn't support this kind of speed in a system.

For the first sentence, I was describing a past system... it did "ever happen" lol.

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JoMo

JoMo

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Southward trend, though still too far north. Shows backside flurries for Missouri on 12/24. Agreed on the model making it fly past the area... however I would use caution since the super-negative AO really doesn't support this kind of speed in a system.

For the first sentence, I was describing a past system... it did "ever happen" lol.

yeah, not seeing it happening this year, in the year of the Nina. Everything that has started out south has moved north. At this rate, we'll need a storm modeled over S. Mexico in order to get anything frozen.

I see the SE Ridge shows up on schedule in January.

EDIT: 12z GGEM just looks like a clipper type system.

EDIT : 12z Euro north as well.

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JoMo

JoMo

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Chance of light snow here after midnight through tomorrow morning....a dusting possible lol. Ill take anything at this point! Interesting writeup from springfields nightly disco on the models not picking up on the storm until the last minute....just a lil clipper

Not a thing for down here. Hoping for a miracle for the Christmas Eveish storm.

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NwWhiteOut

NwWhiteOut

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Not a thing for down here. Hoping for a miracle for the Christmas Eveish storm.

Me to man right now they mention maybe backside of the storm to be light snow or flurries on friday evening....i hope it goes further south. I think the gfs and ecmf whatever the hell that model is showed it more south by what springfield said.

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