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NE OK/ NW AR/ SE KS/ SW MO Winter 2010

JoMo

By JoMo,
in Central/Western States

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JoMo

JoMo

Posted
Posted

Model watching season. I've included links to some of the models and when they start and finish. All times are central time and approximate from when I remember them.

00z NAM

http://www.nco.ncep....wprod/analysis/

Starts @ NCEP @ 7:45 PM

I don't really pay a whole lot of attention to when it ends. Around 9-9:15ish I guess.

00z GFS

http://www.nco.ncep....wprod/analysis/

Starts @ NCEP @ 9:30 PM

Out to 180 hours by 10:30 PM

Ends @ 10:45 PM

00Z GGEM (Canadian) (black and white maps)

http://www.weatherof...t/global_e.html

Not sure when it starts as I am usually looking at the GFS

Ends around 11:15 PM

00z Euro

http://greatlakes.sa...mouth_page.html

Starts at Plymouth around 11:55 PM

Can see out to 240 on:

http://www.ecmwf.int.../msl_uv850_z500

Finishes around 12:50 AM

Updates slowest but better maps:

http://www.meteo.psu.../ecmwfloop.html

06z NAM

http://www.nco.ncep....wprod/analysis/

Starts @ NCEP @ 2:45 AM

I don't really pay a whole lot of attention to when it ends.

06z GFS

http://www.nco.ncep....wprod/analysis/

Starts @ NCEP @ 3:30 AM

Out to 180 hours by 4:30 AM

Ends @ 4:45 AM

12z NAM

http://www.nco.ncep....wprod/analysis/

Starts @ NCEP @ 7:45 AM

I don't really pay a whole lot of attention to when it ends.

12z GFS

http://www.nco.ncep....wprod/analysis/

Starts @ NCEP @ 9:30 AM

Out to 180 hours by 10:30 AM

Ends @ 10:45 AM

12Z GGEM (Canadian) (black and white maps)

http://www.weatherof...t/global_e.html

Not sure when it starts as I am usually looking at the GFS

Ends around 11:15 AM

12 Euro:

http://greatlakes.sa...mouth_page.html

Starts at Plymouth around 11:55 AM

Can see out to 240 on:

http://www.ecmwf.int.../msl_uv850_z500

Finishes around 12:50 PM

Updates slower but better maps to 240:

http://www.meteo.psu.../ecmwfloop.html

18z NAM

http://www.nco.ncep....wprod/analysis/

Starts @ NCEP @ 2:45 PM

I don't really pay a whole lot of attention to when it ends.

18z GFS

http://www.nco.ncep....wprod/analysis/

Starts @ NCEP @ 3:30 PM

Out to 180 hours by 4:30 PM

Ends @ 4:45 PM

In addition I take a look at the GFS ensemble mean located here (comes out pretty quickly after the GFS finishes):

http://raleighwx.ame...fsensemble.html

Then I check out the individual GFS ensemble members which are located here (the 6,12,18z models all come out pretty quickly, the 00z is delayed until after the Euro finishes even):

http://www.meteo.psu.../ewallmref.html

The NAM seems to update quicker on:

http://www.twisterdata.com/

But the GFS is much slower. Snowfall maps are located on that site as well. NAM has composite reflectivity on that site.

When there is a chance of severe weather, I look at the SREF on the SPC page:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/

And the SPC WRF

http://www.emc.ncep....nt4km/conus/00/

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rockchalk83

rockchalk83

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Yeah, I'll probably be the only one posting here. :)

LOL....somehow I highly doubt that. Since I am from Wichita, this will be the forum I will post to regularly, so I should probably introduce myself. I am going to school to study meteorology and will be going to KU within the next year. By the way JoMo, hope you get some of this beneficial rain that has been falling across Kansas/Oklahoma the last couple of days. Sure has been a dry fall around here.

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JoMo

JoMo

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I'll post if you don't mind someone from Central OK posting. Looks like Norman is going to get a nice soaking rain in a few hours, along with the possibility of a thunderstorm. Actually have some decent wind shear, but with only 250 J/kg of MLCAPE I doubt I'll see anything too strong.

I don't mind. We have a similar climate. Yeah, I don't think there will be much severe today. Looks like there is a meso discussion to your SE that says that severe may be isolated but no watch is anticipated. Boring stretch of weather lately, eh?

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JoMo

JoMo

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LOL....somehow I highly doubt that. Since I am from Wichita, this will be the forum I will post to regularly, so I should probably introduce myself. I am going to school to study meteorology and will be going to KU within the next year. By the way JoMo, hope you get some of this beneficial rain that has been falling across Kansas/Oklahoma the last couple of days. Sure has been a dry fall around here.

It actually rained a little while ago. I'm hoping it will rain more of course since it has been so dry lately. I mowed the other day and kicked up quite the dust trail behind me.

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SEMIweather

SEMIweather

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I don't mind. We have a similar climate. Yeah, I don't think there will be much severe today. Looks like there is a meso discussion to your SE that says that severe may be isolated but no watch is anticipated. Boring stretch of weather lately, eh?

Yep, pretty boring. To be honest I'll just be happy to get some rain today, at least it's a change of pace. Looks like another long stretch of dry weather for us after today...

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B.Sebo

B.Sebo

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Woooooo!

OK, back to our doldrums. It does look like we have picked up a few new contributors to our little thread. Just a note to those saying they are 'out' of the area, the thread title is just a bit of a tradition, but we have posters from as far south as Houston and as far north as Saint Louis in this thread, all in Arkansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Kansas, Texas, and Indiana (Hoosier, cough cough) are welcome!

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NwWhiteOut

NwWhiteOut

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yeah, dunno if Spot and wx made it though.

Well if they can use google they shouldnt have a problem finding us. I wish they would have gave us warning so everyone could communicate where we would flock to lol. Hopefully they find their way! Anyways how about all this rain the yard is turning into a giant puddle here. This new rental house is so nice but man they dont have gutters up so it makes it like a darn waterfall over the porches lol. Had a lil thunder rumble earlier also here. This warmth gotta go though man its nuts.

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JoMo

JoMo

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Well if they can use google they shouldnt have a problem finding us. I wish they would have gave us warning so everyone could communicate where we would flock to lol. Hopefully they find their way! Anyways how about all this rain the yard is turning into a giant puddle here. This new rental house is so nice but man they dont have gutters up so it makes it like a darn waterfall over the porches lol. Had a lil thunder rumble earlier also here. This warmth gotta go though man its nuts.

Supposed to have until the 10th, but the owner of the other forum got his feelings hurt or something and shut it down early.

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NwWhiteOut

NwWhiteOut

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Supposed to have until the 10th, but the owner of the other forum got his feelings hurt or something and shut it down early.

Yea man sounded like a lot of bullcrap going on lol. It was pretty damn warm here earlier now the winds are out of the north and it got pretty chilly,,,,temps down to 45 here now....this storm looks really big on radar. Still drizzling out there. I hope it does get cold soon im done with the warm weather

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JoMo

JoMo

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12z GFS still interesting in the long range. The 00z last night flipped to a colder look again. It had flipped to a warmer look in previous model runs. At the same time, it appears there may be a SW flow pumping moisture in. Going to be interesting to see what happens.

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B.Sebo

B.Sebo

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Interesting run of the 00z GFS suggests that we could see a few flakes mix in late tomorrow night in the Arkansas River Valley. Nothing accumulating or even a dusting, but maybe, just MAYBE one or two flakes mixed in. This bares watching.

Also, the extended continues to suck big time.

And, if anybody sees where RaleighWX's model page will be hosted next, be sure to pass it along here, I'm missing that page badly. Thanks again, Eastern. Psh.

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JoMo

JoMo

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Interesting run of the 00z GFS suggests that we could see a few flakes mix in late tomorrow night in the Arkansas River Valley. Nothing accumulating or even a dusting, but maybe, just MAYBE one or two flakes mixed in. This bares watching.

Also, the extended continues to suck big time.

And, if anybody sees where RaleighWX's model page will be hosted next, be sure to pass it along here, I'm missing that page badly. Thanks again, Eastern. Psh.

I think it'll be hosted here.

Extended has potential up here if the Arctic air slides farther south than forecast. However, the GFS hasn't really shown any signs of that so we may see a few days of clouds/showers but no big deal.

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NwWhiteOut

NwWhiteOut

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Another day, another crappy model run. Warming it up even more.

Hell man I remember not long ago reading these temps werent suppose to get this warm this week....yea right its freakin 62 outside again! Now I swear last night when I was walking the dog i saw some wet snow flakes mixed in with the drizzle that was going on. Its pitch black on this road though not a single street light for half a mile lol. I really need to get me a brighter headlamp! Nothing more scary then walking in pitch black and all of a sudden a pack of deer run across the road lol. Of course the dog is in high heaven here living on the edge of town but I got to readjust all over

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