Radders Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 yup, so far at hr 192 all the cold is bottled up in canada and northern mid atl north Yeah, any cross polar flow opportunity looks to be gone as depicted here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 1, 2010 Author Share Posted December 1, 2010 hr 216 west to east gradient, 40n is the 0 line at 850 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 1, 2010 Author Share Posted December 1, 2010 Yeah, any cross polar flow opportunity looks to be gone as depicted here. in terms of hgts wise, the lowest hgts are in eastern canada around baffin island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 Wow...could hardly be more different from the 12z GFS in the long range (and it's own previous runs). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 1, 2010 Author Share Posted December 1, 2010 saving grace is nice ridge popping over pac coast poking into gulf of alaska Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 1, 2010 Author Share Posted December 1, 2010 storm developing in middle of country at hr 228 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 1, 2010 Author Share Posted December 1, 2010 Wow...could hardly be more different from the 12z GFS in the long range (and it's own previous runs). yea its vastly diff than 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 1, 2010 Author Share Posted December 1, 2010 arctic air pouring down on the back side of the low over the plains at hr 234 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 1, 2010 Author Share Posted December 1, 2010 long range looks pretty bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 saving grace is nice ridge popping over pac coast poking into gulf of alaska PNA definitely developing on day 10, but it's day 10! And the NAO block is gone of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 arctic air pouring down on the back side of the low over the plains at hr 234 Looks like the GFS long range storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 1, 2010 Author Share Posted December 1, 2010 hr 240 storm looks like it would most likely cut inland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 1, 2010 Author Share Posted December 1, 2010 Looks like the GFS long range storm? no, the storm on the euro would cut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 no, the storm on the euro would cut Well, such run to run differences - the GFS has been right so far, so I guess go with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 It cuts inland because the NAO switches to positive.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 With such run to run differences on the models I wouldn't even bother looking past day 5 on any of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 euro sounds like a horrid run all around but these massive changes in the long range mean absolutely nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 I would still keep my eyes out for the mid December event. Better setup than the one we are in now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 Euro is not that good anyway beyond a few days let alone 10 days....lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 Changes are just laughable run to run on these models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 Are we going to get the typical cold and dry to warm and rainy pattern this winter? Seems very common in a La Nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 hr 240 storm looks like it would most likely cut inland Uhh... not at all, look at the canadian setup, no way the lows charging right through that, especially with strong zonal flow over th conus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 You have two high pressures dropping down south in the 1030s..I think it could be a little difficult for this to cut up to the lakes...Just my two cents though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 day 8-10, what do you expect. Anyhow, the day 9-10 storm gathering in the middle of the country doesnt look too bad actually verbatim for the northeast. Not a Lakes cutter at the least. Extrapolated, there is a confluence zone and an arctic high over central Canada that will slide east as the wave is amplifying over the southern plains. Also, there is the pna ridge on the west coast and another trough racing into the Gulf of Alaska that will keep things progressing eastward. The timing actually looks good that this would kick that central wave east before amplifying too much and as that next confluence zone is moving across se Canada. Of course this is extrapolating a day 10 model forecast. Everything will change by 00z tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 day 8-10, what do you expect. Anyhow, the day 9-10 storm gathering in the middle of the country doesnt look too bad actually verbatim for the northeast. Not a Lakes cutter at the least. Extrapolated, there is a confluence zone and an arctic high over central Canada that will slide east as the wave is amplifying over the southern plains. Also, there is the pna ridge on the west coast and another trough racing into the Gulf of Alaska that will keep things progressing eastward. The timing actually looks good that this would kick that central wave east before amplifying too much and as that next confluence zone is moving across se Canada. Of course this is extrapolating a day 10 model forecast. Everything will change by 00z tonight. Yeah not a lakes cutter verbatim but youre last sentence sums it up perfectly. Too bad its the only threat to watch atm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 You have two high pressures dropping down south in the 1030s..I think it could be a little difficult for this to cut up to the lakes...Just my two cents though. The storm on the Euro looks like a SWFE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 There are a lot of shortwaves and a lot of chances for models to waffle around with threats beyond dec. 5th. The 12z GGEM looked like it was trending good for us..if not for that trough slamming into the nw at 150hrs. As for the Dec. 5th clipper, man is that California wave closing off pesky! That whole interaction with the clipper wave and ridging on the west coast holds the key for how much dec. 5th wave can dig. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 Any news on 12z ECMWF Ensembles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 Any news on 12z ECMWF Ensembles? Even further south and east than the OP. I'm starting to think that the GFS will be the hero of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 1, 2010 Author Share Posted December 1, 2010 i didnt mean cut to the lakes, should of clarified i meant maybe like an apps runner or up i95, tjhe ridge out ahead of the storm is growing, the 850 line is already north of phl and nyc...granted it mean nothing cause there will be a completely diff scenario at 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.