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Gorgeous Sonoran Heat Release signaled in the operational Euro

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

Well most of our early season heat waves only last 3-4 days.

Day 9 and 10 of Euro haven't exactly been stellar lately

It wouldnt even be a heat wave on the Euro, the true stuff is in here for Tues/Wed next week, but it wouldnt get to 90F the other days unless it trends warmer. It more like +15C 850 type stuff which I guess into downtown HFD on asphalt with a downsloping wind could hit 90, but probably 80-85 in most spots which isn't too bad if dews arent above 65.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
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If that heat dome verifies, might be some decent oppurtunities for convection I guess.

NNE severe wx outbreak next Wed on the Euro, we'd be on the southern fringe, but not too bad a setup. Doubt it verifies though...Euro had a great looking severe setup for today about 8-9 days ago but we knew it was probably wrong. :lol:

Def some tstorm chances though if we get the heat. Hopefully its not 100% useless like just about every single heat event last summer which produced no convection.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
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NNE severe wx outbreak next Wed on the Euro, we'd be on the southern fringe, but not too bad a setup. Doubt it verifies though...Euro had a great looking severe setup for today about 8-9 days ago but we knew it was probably wrong. :lol:

Def some tstorm chances though if we get the heat. Hopefully its not 100% useless like just about every single heat event last summer which produced no convection.

I don't want true heat like that, but try to find the positives I guess..lol.

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nzucker

nzucker

Posted
Posted

It wouldnt even be a heat wave on the Euro, the true stuff is in here for Tues/Wed next week, but it wouldnt get to 90F the other days unless it trends warmer. It more like +15C 850 type stuff which I guess into downtown HFD on asphalt with a downsloping wind could hit 90, but probably 80-85 in most spots which isn't too bad if dews arent above 65.

Wednesday is ridiculous though:

850s well over 20C and winds look to be W or even NW, so downsloping for folks on the coastal plain. TORCH.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

Triple digits for EWR and the usual warm stations?

95F here in the NYC burbs?

Yeah if you get +20-22C 850 temps like it shows.

Keep in mind the Euro has a definite warm bias on these heat ridges in the medium range. It loves to show 850 maximum temps +20 to even +24C sometimes, but then as you get closer, it ends up being more like +18C to +20C...still quite hot, but not the volcano heat it often will try to paint over us at 7 days out.

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nzucker

nzucker

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Yeah if you get +20-22C 850 temps like it shows.

Keep in mind the Euro has a definite warm bias on these heat ridges in the medium range. It loves to show 850 maximum temps +20 to even +24C sometimes, but then as you get closer, it ends up being more like +18C to +20C...still quite hot, but not the volcano heat it often will try to paint over us at 7 days out.

Yes, I'm definitely aware of this...I got burned a couple times last summer betting on 90-degree days with friends using the long-range ECM maps. There was a study done that showed the Euro has a warm bias of nearly 1C in 850s/surface temperatures in North America, although I'm not sure how accurate it was and how the model has been updated as this was a while ago. It always overdoes these heat ridges with large areas of >20C 850s, which rarely verifies in this part of the world, especially in early June. We still have 3-4C to gain in terms of climo from early June to the peak of the summer warmth in late July, so it's pretty difficult to get 24C 850s at this time frame. Nevertheless, all of the models have clearly seized upon the Sonoran heat wave idea, just depends if troughing over the Maritimes cools down the Northeast, and of course how long it lasts.

We should see some much more impressive heat than today during the middle of next week. Today has been a bust here...we've crept up to 77.5F at the local Wunderground station with HPN, the official station for Westchester County (located about 10 miles NE of here) sitting at 73F, down from a high of 76F. There's been a few glimpses of the sun, but it's remained overcast for the majority of the day with marine layer fog/stratus transitioning into more cumulus type clouds. I don't consider mid-upper 70s a torch for the NYC suburbs in late May...averages are well into the 70s at this point anyway down here. NWS had a high of 88F for Dobbs Ferry yesterday morning, and then switched to 83F, and it looks as if these forecasts will both bust.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

Not sure what is going on with the long range at BOX..they have highs near 70 on Mem. Day lol..in actuality it'll be in the 80's to around 90

There's no reason to forecast 85-90F weather 6 days out for Mem Day yet if you are BOX. There's still some uncertainty when that heat ridge actually makes it far enough NE to us. We may be affected be a pseudo BDF before the warmer air reaches us. A lot of guidance still has that high in Quebec...it gets overpowered eventually, but it can cause a delay in the heat and you end up with a situation where it might be +16C 850s overhead but its overcast with showers and temps near 70F at the sfc because the leading 200 miles of the warmer air aloft is overrunning the cooler lower level air at the sfc.

Its a detail that we won't know much on until we get a few days closer.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Until there is a more coherent signal in the teleconnectors I'm going to go ahead and assume that:

1) The 12z GFS is too progressive, which then leads to prematurely breaking down the eastern heights once they get established on the back of a converged -PNA/+NAO coupled scenario.

2) The 00z Euro is breaking it down a little too quick based on the fact that the ECMWF model intrinsically sucks big gorilla balls beyond D5...particularly 6, and rarely handles large and middle scale mass fields correctly in those latter time ranges, showing rather large stochastic variance by run.

12z model of choice is, grudgingly, the CMC. This pattern in that determinstic run is a better fit/path of least regret for a strongly positive NAO and a -.5PNA in the means. I say grudgingly because I am not typically a CMC supporter, but the nod coming from the UKMET helps there.

I believe the entire 5-day package from Monday to Friday is above normal with limited synoptic impetus to be otherwise. Strong established hot continental conveyor that may or may not contain a pulse or multiple pulses of Sonoran air will mean mid 80s to lower 90s every day, with above 60F DPs. Perhaps a couple of middle or perhaps upper 90s (with an isolated 100 reading) not out of the question should a coherent sonoran eject be trackable. It is hard to really feel those out even at this time range. The NAM, for all our consternation, would be a good model for that specificality come late weekend runs. For now, we are religated to pattern recognition still.

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

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Until there is a more coherent signal in the teleconnectors I'm going to go ahead and assume that:

1) The 12z GFS is too progressive, which then leads to prematurely breaking down the eastern heights once they get established on the back of a converged -PNA/+NAO coupled scenario.

2) The 00z Euro is breaking it down a little too quick based on the fact that the ECMWF model intrinsically sucks big gorilla balls beyond D5...particularly 6, and rarely handles large and middle scale mass fields correctly in those latter time ranges, showing rather large stochastic variance by run.

12z model of choice is, grudgingly, the CMC. This pattern in that determinstic run is a better fit/path of least regret for a strongly positive NAO and a -.5PNA in the means. I say grudgingly because I am not typically a CMC supporter, but the nod coming from the UKMET helps there.

I believe the entire 5-day package from Monday to Friday is above normal with limited synoptic impetus to be otherwise. Strong established hot continental conveyor that may or may not contain a pulse or multiple pulses of Sonoran air will mean mid 80s to lower 90s every day, with above 60F DPs. Perhaps a couple of middle or perhaps upper 90s (with an isolated 100 reading) not out of the question should a coherent sonoran eject be trackable. It is hard to really feel those out even at this time range. The NAM, for all our consternation, would be a good model for that specificality come late weekend runs. For now, we are religated to pattern recognition still.

NAM can't even get this coming Friday and Saturday right with it's ridiculous backdoor for NE Mass down to BOS

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Is this a technical scientific term?

You may or may not be old enough to remember South Park's song performed by "Chef" - R.I.P. - that went something like, "...Suck on my big chocolate salty balls; put 'em in your mouth and suck em!"

The ECM is not quite that good in that time range.

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