dendrite Posted May 22, 2011 Share Posted May 22, 2011 I don't care if it's 70F, 90F, or 120F...get me out of this hellish E flow and low OVC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 22, 2011 Author Share Posted May 22, 2011 Interesting to read of all this reticence among the various AFD's as well as NCEP to even consider this as plausible. Many of these offices were abutted by the 12z Euro too. I was noticing that the recent stratospheric warming event has seasonally encountered the terminous, and therein its effectiveness on pancaking the latitude of the mean westerlies core is rapidly reducing. The D8-12 mean of both 12z ensemble was reflecting this in apparency, showing what may even be construed as a hemispheric elasticity and rebound/contraction N of the westerly stereo-graphic circumvallate. This is probably why these subtropical ridges are exploding in vertical depth and expanse in a week. Much of this is outright implicating NCEP's middle range discussion as questionable; they state there is no support for these recent operational GFS runs from the GFS ensembles. That's incorrect. I give them a nod to timing, however, because much of this presently concerns the latter middle range period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted May 22, 2011 Share Posted May 22, 2011 Regardless of this weekend looks like TORCH!! potential early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 23, 2011 Author Share Posted May 23, 2011 Part of the problem with making an extended/long lead suggestion is that folks lose interest in the interim - unless it's about a biblical snow threat, lol. Understood... Still, the GFS’s recent cycles continue to hammer the idea of blasting off eastern heights with plausible Sonoran heat pulse(s) embedded; meanwhile, the Euro is wavering on this… 12z yesterday it committed fully and pulled the plug entirely on its notion of carving out another -2SD closed low ... opting instead for a big heat wall formulation much in the way of recent deterministic GFS runs. Last night it trend half way back – sort of in agreement with its own ensemble mean from 00z. One thing I find interesting that differentiates the ECM and GFS clusters is that you don’t see as much dischord among the various ECM members like you do with the GFS. They tend to move en masse in one direction or the other. The ECM ensemble mean from 2 nights ago had a big closed gyre like the operational. 12z yesterday, they all pretty much abandoned the idea and went with heat. 00z, they all collapsed half way back … the GFS on the other hand will often have more varied solutions across its various members. That said, what significance it has here is unknown to me, but, I do think it is interesting that the GFS ensemble members are agreeing overall more than normal for the mid range and extended heat potentials. The overnight teleconnector spread still flags the heat potential via the PNA and NAO modalities leading to D7. I'm definitely above 50/50 at this point for a 3-perhaps 5 day stint of above to much above normal heat, the magnitude of which will come down to timing packets of EML Sonoran air with diurnal heating ... all of this from late Mem day weekend onward. One thing about that timing issue ... I have seen Sonoran pulses pass through at night - the key is to get the nose of the warm pulse into western New England in clear air at sun up... That's when you get your 90F by 9:30am roast underway... But what this does is parlays into an elevated next overnight, because the sun combined with a well mixed Sonoran origin feeds back on maximizing the BL thickness potential, and that sets the stage for the next day. Contrasting, when the Sonoran pulse is exiting at sun up, the temp can tend to hit a ceiling by noon and then you oscillated between 91-93. Hot ...but lacking the same panache as the former better timed scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 ejects nicely on the 12z euro but is cut-off from the northeast...bakes the plains/midwest/ov though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 ejects nicely on the 12z euro but is cut-off from the northeast...bakes the plains/midwest/ov though. Syanora Sonora? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 23, 2011 Author Share Posted May 23, 2011 Syanora Sonora? Not on a D9 model output, no - The ECM has been having a lot of problem with consistency with this...at times showing it robustly, at others, almost completely reversing the mass fields. The model, for all its glory in the D4 time range, really is duping people if they are paying to see the product beyond D5.5 - it's worse than the UKMET/GFS in my opinion during those times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 Not on a D9 model output, no - The ECM has been having a lot of problem with consistency with this...at times showing it robustly, at others, almost completely reversing the mass fields. The model, for all its glory in the D4 time range, really is duping people if they are paying to see the product beyond D5.5 - it's worse than the UKMET/GFS in my opinion during those times. Better hope so, fookin cold in NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 Syanora Sonora? lol. who knows. one way or the other it will eventually get warm whether it's a tippy triple digit heat or just a normal temp regime. what the euro is doing beyond day 6 seems to fit with the current regime - a blocked up NH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 23, 2011 Author Share Posted May 23, 2011 lol. who knows. one way or the other it will eventually get warm whether it's a tippy triple digit heat or just a normal temp regime. what the euro is doing beyond day 6 seems to fit with the current regime - a blocked up NH. ...I think said the magnitude of which will depend upon.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Syanora Sonora? Ensembles are not agreeing with the op. Maybe move over and share Sonora... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 00z EC is hot. 80s to near 90F at times in spots from this Friday through late next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 00z EC is hot. 80s to near 90F at times in spots from this Friday through late next week. Memorial Day is a scorcher this run. +18C 850s and westerly flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Wow.. I just wish there was more support for this type of heat/humidity from the other models! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 TORCH!!!!!! nice work Tippy. Summer is here!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 I still can't get over the heat on the Euro. Just a huge pig ass heat ridge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 24, 2011 Author Share Posted May 24, 2011 00z EC is hot. 80s to near 90F at times in spots from this Friday through late next week. Yes, the 00z Euro is not only hot, I can identify at least two coherent pulses of Sonoran air ripped out of the SW and pumped over us via continental conveyor. No otherwise interpretation of this run - and it's collapse toward the CMC and GFS deterministic guidance underscores, in my opinion, the flag raised by the teleconnector modalities days ago when this thread was started. Continuity and detail variations through 06z GFS notwithstanding, but appear within the typical realm of certitude for this kind of time range in modelology. I feel more than 50/50 confident that a 15+ departure episode (minimum) is immenent during the D5-10 period of time, and at least 50% that a Sonoran pulse may be embedded. *IF* that is the case, 100F would not be out of the question - again, *IF*. The trouble is, whether Sonoran air gets rattled around in that or not is really only confidence that comes from short term guidance. We could end up in the big ridge scenario with 88-93F and higher DPs for an extended stretch - the BIG heat however comes down to details. Best thing to do is recognize the patterns that brings that about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Yes, the 00z Euro is not only hot, I can identify at least two coherent pulses of Sonoran air ripped out of the SW and pumped over us via continental conveyor. No otherwise interpretation of this run - and it's collapse toward the CMC and GFS deterministic guidance underscores, in my opinion, the flag raised by the teleconnector modalities days ago when this thread was started. Continuity and detail variations through 06z GFS notwithstanding, but appear within the typical realm of certitude for this kind of time range in modelology. I feel more than 50/50 confident that a 15+ departure episode (minimum) is immenent during the D5-10 period of time, and at least 50% that a Sonoran pulse may be embedded. *IF* that is the case, 100F would not be out of the question - again, *IF*. The trouble is, whether Sonoran air gets rattled around in that or not is really only confidence that comes from short term guidance. We could end up in the big ridge scenario with 88-93F and higher DPs for an extended stretch - the BIG heat however comes down to details. Best thing to do is recognize the patterns that brings that about. GFS hints at this too. I saw the euro, and figured your eyes would light up..lol. Certainly a warm pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 24, 2011 Author Share Posted May 24, 2011 Wow.. I just wish there was more support for this type of heat/humidity from the other models! Which models do you refer?? The CMC has been trending this way ...albeit slowly, but evident nonetheless. The Euro has been off and on, but more on recently, and the GFS has been a priimary campaign manager - so to speak. That combined with the CPC guidance (being rooted in 21 ensemble members)... I think there has been plenty of guidance support, but more in the way of apprehention to accept - possibly based on that age old difficulty in wrapping heads around heat when suffering -2SD cool departures at any given time. Understandable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 24, 2011 Author Share Posted May 24, 2011 GFS hints at this too. I saw the euro, and figured your eyes would light up..lol. Certainly a warm pattern. Lol - yeah, I'm actually kind of floored by this runs panache with this... That said, eh, maybe not so shocking considering... I made mention of this in the banter thread yesterday; there is a modality in the AO toward +1 SD, while in tandem the GLAMM has found its self positive. That is a big subtropical ridge convergent signal there ...not just for our side of the hemisphere but unilaterally really. But, seeing as that canvas is there, having the CPC PNA dropping while elevating the NAO are supported, not deconstructively interferred. When a signal is positively re-enforced, not negatively, from the foundation to the pillar tops, that usually becomes a obelisk of confidence that is hard to topple. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 The euro op is a Wiz dream because it offers lots of NW flow events/nighttime MCS type features. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 GFS hints at this too. I saw the euro, and figured your eyes would light up..lol. Certainly a warm pattern. it'll be interesting to see how this evolves. everything has sort of been back and forth on the reach of this ridge. you can see the old/existing pattern hanging tough on some runs - op and ens alike - beating back any real heat...but then 12 hours later the same model will push tippy's heat dome northeastward like we saw on the 00z euro. purely speculation but i wonder if the truth lies somewhere in the middle here - with the biggest + departures and heat focusing SW of New England like over the OV / midwest / tennessee river valley or something with a more subdued situation here as occasional impulses beat down the flow now and then...giving us more like 70s-80s as opposed to 80s-90s. either way, anything will be a million times better than the exiting pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 The euro op is a Wiz dream because it offers lots of NW flow events/nighttime MCS type features. yeah they show up nicely even at face value. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Lol - yeah, I'm actually kind of floored by this runs panache with this... That said, eh, maybe not so shocking considering... I made mention of this in the banter thread yesterday; there is a modality in the AO toward +1 SD, while in tandem the GLAMM has found its self positive. That is a big subtropical ridge convergent signal there ...not just for our side of the hemisphere but unilaterally really. But, seeing as that canvas is there, having the CPC PNA dropping while elevating the NAO are supported, not deconstructively interferred. When a signal is positively re-enforced, not negatively, from the foundation to the pillar tops, that usually becomes a obelisk of confidence that is hard to topple. Yeah the signal is there for a good chunk of the Plains to the East Coast. Obviously little mesoscale details like backdoors TBD, but it looks warm for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 How does the Euro look for Friday as far as severe potential goes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 it'll be interesting to see how this evolves. everything has sort of been back and forth on the reach of this ridge. you can see the old/existing pattern hanging tough on some runs - op and ens alike - beating back any real heat...but then 12 hours later the same model will push tippy's heat dome northeastward like we saw on the 00z euro. purely speculation but i wonder if the truth lies somewhere in the middle here - with the biggest + departures and heat focusing SW of New England like over the OV / midwest / tennessee river valley or something with a more subdued situation here as occasional impulses beat down the flow now and then...giving us more like 70s-80s as opposed to 80s-90s. either way, anything will be a million times better than the exiting pattern. Yeah the details might be tough to figure out. Things like shortwaves moving through se Quebec and sending a front south will be tough to see, but it has the potential to be quite warm. Could see something where we have a couple of days near 90+ while NYC on south has several. I'm just using this as an example. To be honest...it's good to walk the line like this, because convection could be fun....unlike being in the middle of a massive nuclear ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Yeah the details might be tough to figure out. Things like shortwaves moving through se Quebec and sending a front south will be tough to see, but it has the potential to be quite warm. Could see something where we have a couple of days near 90+ while NYC on south has several. I'm just using this as an example. To be honest...it's good to walk the line like this, because convection could be fun....unlike being in the middle of a massive nuclear ridge. yeah the thought definitely crossed the mind when reviewing the 00z runs. i'm just looking forward to summer weather. grilling, beers on the deck, some music going...best spring ever. :sun: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 yeah the thought definitely crossed the mind when reviewing the 00z runs. i'm just looking forward to summer weather. grilling, beers on the deck, some music going...best spring ever. :sun: Agreed. A little NWA playing, drinking St. Ides..... along with bbq ribs and chicken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Agreed. A little NWA playing, drinking St. Ides..... along with bbq ribs and chicken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 24, 2011 Author Share Posted May 24, 2011 12z GFS offers no significant ...or not enough, variances on this theme to diverge one's thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.