weatherwiz Posted May 20, 2011 Share Posted May 20, 2011 At some point down the road we should see a period of some pretty nice heat. Hopefully this comes to verify...that could also be quite the fun pattern for severe wx...probably would be associated with a pretty nice jet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 20, 2011 Share Posted May 20, 2011 Torch is full on all of next week 80+ for days and days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted May 20, 2011 Share Posted May 20, 2011 Torch is full on all of next week 80+ for days and days I'm thinking 1 maybe 2 days where I hit 80 over the next 7 Good luck to you. You need to do well with this to save face. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 20, 2011 Author Share Posted May 20, 2011 At some point down the road we should see a period of some pretty nice heat. Hopefully this comes to verify...that could also be quite the fun pattern for severe wx...probably would be associated with a pretty nice jet. ... There is no requirement that any wayward ECMWF operational run should have to agree with the GEFs-related index modes,.... buut, the 00z deterministic ECMWF is at odds, almost 180 degrees against as a matter of fact, the overnight American PNA/NAO resolutions combined with the GFS deterministic solution. The 00z GFS and its ensemble mean are in heavy agreement on a whoppre heat spell still shimmering around D10 - perhaps pushed back 2 days over the ECM's original idea. Much of that heat is also of the Sonoran origin. This thead's idea is still very much alive - though confidence is still to limited to feel to good about making that forecast. That said, the deterministic Euro run is just about as much a POS as the GFS beyond D6 in the on-going verificaiton. When it's wheelhouse performance range is up, it's really up, and it pulls its pants down and poops on continuity with panache. It's current operational D10 is a +PNAP pattern that has 0 support from erstwhile trends of it's own camp. Speaking of which ... it's own camp is actually in reasonable agreement with that continuity shift - one featuring instead of a +3SD ridge node developing near WV, a geopotential weakness there. That's all new as of one cycle, last night, for the extended range. I'd like to see a little more continuity before biting on that new idea for the time frame in question. My gut instinct tells me the GFS' cluster may win this battle this time though. The reason is because typically when we get one of these stagnated negative (or positive) routines going, there is a some kind of equalizing pattern orientation out in time that equals that departure in the other direction. I see this time and time again - it's not always exact in magnitude.... but, having a highly concerted downward motion in the PNA with a +1SD equally concerted NAO orientation by D8, combined with our exiting out of a -3SD mlv vortex plague is all seemingly better fitted for a positive departure in the east. Interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 20, 2011 Share Posted May 20, 2011 There is no requirement that any wayward ECMWF operational run should have to agree with the GEFs-related index modes,.... buut, the 00z deterministic ECMWF is at odds, almost 180 degrees against as a matter of fact, the overnight American PNA/NAO resolutions combined with the GFS deterministic solution. The 00z GFS and its ensemble mean are in heavy agreement on a whoppre heat spell still shimmering around D10 - perhaps pushed back 2 days over the ECM's original idea. Much of that heat is also of the Sonoran origin. This thead's idea is still very much alive - though confidence is still to limited to feel to good about making that forecast. That said, the deterministic Euro run is just about as much a POS as the GFS beyond D6 in the on-going verificaiton. When it's wheelhouse performance range is up, it's really up, and it pulls its pants down and poops on continuity with panache. It's current operational D10 is a +PNAP pattern that has 0 support from erstwhile trends of it's own camp. Speaking of which ... it's own camp is actually in reasonable agreement with that continuity shift - one featuring instead of a +3SD ridge node developing near WV, a geopotential weakness there. That's all new as of one cycle, last night, for the extended range. I'd like to see a little more continuity before biting on that new idea for the time frame in question. My gut instinct tells me the GFS' cluster may win this battle this time though. The reason is because typically when we get one of these stagnated negative (or positive) routines going, there is a some kind of equalizing pattern orientation out in time that equals that departure in the other direction. I see this time and time again - it's not always exact in magnitude.... but, having a highly concerted downward motion in the PNA with a +1SD equally concerted NAO orientation by D8, combined with our exiting out of a -3SD mlv vortex plague is all seemingly better fitted for a positive departure in the east. Interesting... With what we have been witnessing these past few days with regards to the model runs and seeing them back off at times or delay things kind of tells me that we are indeed going to see this pattern change towards much hotter weather for a good portion of the country. Whether or not we get into this extreme heat is another question but the potential for this is certainly there. Going from a pattern of extreme blocking to such a pattern that is being depicted here is a pretty drastic change...like ENSO going from one strong phase to another (obviously this is much different but just using that as an example). This is going to create some havoc within the models, and especially this time of year as the wavelengths continue to lengthen as we move through the late spring season. Plus right now (but not for too much longer) some of the major global teleconnections will still have a pretty solid influence on the pattern but now that we are getting into late May very quickly will the influences of the PNA/NAO quickly diminish. Once we get through all of this I suspect we start seeing much better model agreement and many of the differences will be resolved. The models usually handle summer patterns much more accurately and better than winter patterns b/c things are much less complex in the summer. It really wouldn't surprise me if we actually saw something similar to June of 2008 in terms of the pattern for the first few weeks...not saying we see that type of heat but in a way things look like they may be shaping up to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 21, 2011 Author Share Posted May 21, 2011 Fwiw - the GFS continues to flip flop. It was clad on this eastern heat dome through 18z yesterday, then decided to go opposing for a couple runs... Now, the 12z on D10 has a ridge that has a geopotential axis approaching 600dm over OH!!! That's pretty sick on this side of the Solstice and will drill triple digit heat should it succeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 21, 2011 Share Posted May 21, 2011 Torch is full on all of next week 80+ for days and days lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted May 21, 2011 Share Posted May 21, 2011 The euro is not quite in agreement .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 21, 2011 Share Posted May 21, 2011 The euro is not quite in agreement .... Won't happen...when is the last time we had a huge cut off to our SW?oh wait... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted May 21, 2011 Share Posted May 21, 2011 Won't happen...when is the last time we had a huge cut off to our SW? oh wait... The differences between the euro and gfs right now are beyond laughable... I posted this aready in the southeast thread, but I think it would be hard to find any greater disagreement . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 21, 2011 Share Posted May 21, 2011 Euro actually develops a little wave of low pressure off to our south for Wednesday and temps stay in the 50s (60s for BDL country) Tuesday looks like a keeper though. (as of now) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 21, 2011 Share Posted May 21, 2011 Euro actually develops a little wave of low pressure off to our south for Wednesday and temps stay in the 50s (60s for BDL country) Tuesday looks like a keeper though. (as of now) Yeah I only see 80s one day... Tuesday and then probably close to climo for the end of the week with a touch of humidity too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 21, 2011 Share Posted May 21, 2011 Yeah I only see 80s one day... Tuesday and then probably close to climo for the end of the week with a touch of humidity too. Yeah looks like disaster potential again for me on Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted May 22, 2011 Share Posted May 22, 2011 Torch is full on all of next week 80+ for days and days Or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 22, 2011 Share Posted May 22, 2011 Or not. It has been a rough couple of weeks for CT Drizz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted May 22, 2011 Share Posted May 22, 2011 MET has 48 for a high at BOS tomorrow. Next weekend looks to be heading to the toity. As stated, I'm looking forward to getting the fook out of here Wednesday heading to KC. Hopefully by the time I arrive back Friday evening things aren't heading as bad as they look now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 22, 2011 Share Posted May 22, 2011 12z Euro not looking quite as horrible after Monday. Wed could be decent away from the coast too. Some big changes out west this run after d5...the Rockies ridge gets obliterated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 22, 2011 Author Share Posted May 22, 2011 Anyway ... the 12z ECM broke stride against it's odd looking cut-off solutions, now trending very heavily in favor of the rising NAO, falling PNA theme - also more persistently representing in the GFS' recent operaional runs. It now has a 592dm height wall encompassing all of eastern N/A by this time next weekend, perhaps sooner by a day or so, where it once had another -2SD trough carved out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 22, 2011 Share Posted May 22, 2011 TORCHHHH !!!!!!!!!!! YESSSS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 22, 2011 Share Posted May 22, 2011 TORCHHHH !!!!!!!!!!! YESSSS GFS MOS has 87 for Tuesday at BDL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 22, 2011 Share Posted May 22, 2011 GFS MOS has 87 for Tuesday at BDL Maybe a run at 90 !! 80+ for days and days AWT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 22, 2011 Share Posted May 22, 2011 Maybe a run at 90 !! 80+ for days and days AWT I doubt that. I could see Tuesday and Thursday >80. Friday may be close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 22, 2011 Share Posted May 22, 2011 I doubt that. I could see Tuesday and Thursday >80. Friday may be close. isn't that days and days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 22, 2011 Share Posted May 22, 2011 isn't that days and days? If we're lucky it's days and days... but a lot could go wrong. I have 84 on Tuesday and 80 for Thursday and Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 22, 2011 Share Posted May 22, 2011 If we're lucky it's days and days... but a lot could go wrong. I have 84 on Tuesday and 80 for Thursday and Friday. Nice..not bad at all. All well above normal and muggy. What about Wed? 74 maybe? What days do you have thunder? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 22, 2011 Share Posted May 22, 2011 Nice..not bad at all. All well above normal and muggy. What about Wed? 74 maybe? What days do you have thunder? I had 75 on Wednesday and thunder in the forecast Tuesday, Wednesday, Friday, Saturday, and Sunday lol I don't think it's too muggy. The real muggy stuff probably holds off until Saturday and Sunday as long as we warm sector. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 22, 2011 Share Posted May 22, 2011 I had 75 on Wednesday and thunder in the forecast Tuesday, Wednesday, Friday, Saturday, and Sunday lol I don't think it's too muggy. The real muggy stuff probably holds off until Saturday and Sunday as long as we warm sector. Well by muggy i mean dews in the low-mid 60's and maybe we push 70+ late week/weekend All i know is I'm glad I installed all the A/C units this past week and weekend. Nothing like doing it in heat and humidity, dripping sweat and highly irritated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted May 22, 2011 Share Posted May 22, 2011 I had 75 on Wednesday and thunder in the forecast Tuesday, Wednesday, Friday, Saturday, and Sunday lol I don't think it's too muggy. The real muggy stuff probably holds off until Saturday and Sunday as long as we warm sector. Have you and Wiz been hanging out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 22, 2011 Author Share Posted May 22, 2011 FWIW the 18z GFS may as well be an inferno... Classic - the first 5 or 6 days are spent in a quasi +PNAP building deep layer heat tucked into the SW. The PNAP then flips negative rather abruptly, sending heights skyrocketing over E N/A ...particularly between 35-50N, and concurrently establishing a continental conveyor that originates from that trapped intensely solar processed atmosphere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 22, 2011 Share Posted May 22, 2011 FWIW the 18z GFS may as well be an inferno... Classic - the first 5 or 6 days are spent in a quasi +PNAP building deep layer heat tucked into the SW. The PNAP then flips negative rather abruptly, sending heights skyrocketing over E N/A ...particularly between 35-50N, and concurrently establishing a continental conveyor that originates from that trapped intensely solar processed atmosphere. Frontal nudity right there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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