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Gorgeous Sonoran Heat Release signaled in the operational Euro


Typhoon Tip

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Look at this bad boy working into the west-coast and look all that heat down in Mexico which should shift northward into the US once the trough comes onshore on the west coast and the trough going through our region moves offshore allowing for the ridging inbetween to pump up higher and build northward.

msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!240!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2011051900!!chart.gif

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I think all of us will be happy with low-mid 80's and dews well into the mid and upper 60's next week

Nice seabreeze for me. Coast FTW this time around...although fog risk is there. Probably some 90s for DC on south. Not terribly warm here, but dews may come up. 80s is certainly not rare for the interior.

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Nice seabreeze for me. Coast FTW this time around...although fog risk is there. Probably some 90s for DC on south. Not terribly warm here, but dews may come up. 80s is certainly not rare for the interior.

I am hopeful to heave thigh sticking armpit smelling heat/humidity. It's weather.

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:lmao: Everything is lowered by 10-12 degrees today. Nothing like having a maverick on the 6pm news and a rip and read on the 6am news.

lol they always do that. They'll be back into the 80s by tomorrow. They were hugging the gfs this weekend and had upper 60s....then one night they just randomly changed it and the whole week was low 50s and rain lmaosmiley.gif

It's pretty funny to follow.

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I hate seabreezes personally. USusally far enough inland to avoid them..but sometimes they make it

By they time they usually make it here it's like 4:00-5:00 PM anyways so it's not that big of a deal, it's actually rather refreshing at that time of afternoon, plus it's past peak-heating so we've already achieved maximum temperature that day so it's not not like it screws things up temp wise.

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I'm just looking forward to some sun. This is horrible wx right now, and my plants are cursing me for planting them a couple of weeks ago.

Yes this is probably the worst stretch of wx I can remember even against the awful springs. If it were early April it would be much more tolerable.

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I hate seabreezes personally. USusally far enough inland to avoid them..but sometimes they make it

This time of year and into the summer, they can be useful. However, they can kill with fog as well.

Speaking of which, Jerry, might be a lousy Sunday morning around here if the GFS is right.

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Look at this bad boy working into the west-coast and look all that heat down in Mexico which should shift northward into the US once the trough comes onshore on the west coast and the trough going through our region moves offshore allowing for the ridging inbetween to pump up higher and build northward.

msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!240!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2011051900!!chart.gif

This is precisely an example of that which presages a Sonoran release - the model keeps loading the rifle but then drops the ammo in the middle range.

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This is precisely an example of that which presages a Sonoran release - the model keeps loading the rifle but then drops the ammo in the middle range.

This could be a case of the delayed but not denied which may very well be a distinct possibility. Once we are completely rid of this blocking regime there really won't be much in the way to suppress any ridging from building further northward, especially with those deep troughs digging into the west. With forecasted NAO index to trend more positive this should really help as well, especially with getting rid of the blocking.

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We're getting our arses banged on this one today....

Observations et al demonstrate a classic topographical cold, damp "bowl" trap scenario, where the Berkshires elevations out west and the differential between the ociean/land-based sounding on the S and E coast of SNE are creating more than a mere virtual bowl that has trapped saturated low level polar heavy air. The cloud line is all but gone at mid and upper levels in this dry punch coming up from the S; yet, llv cloud edge is backbuilding perpetually along that Berks' and South Coast where said meso-warm boundary aligns.

It's the worst of all possible, period. This kind of configuration happens uniquely to this cattle prod region of the country, and when it does, it can stick across synoptic turn-overs too - you almost need something equally anomalous to scour it out.

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12z ec is kinda meh on any real meaningful torch.

that was pretty apparent in the 00z ec ens as well. the ridge pokes up for a day...monday...but then is beaten back tuesday and wednesday with a decent cfropa. actually replaced by cool canadian HP midweek. after that, looks like a more mild/muggy/isolated storms sse flow type pattern later next week with some sort of stalled boundary over the Apps. probably above normal but doesn't have the same look we were seeing a couple of days ago.

that's this run verbatim of course.

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12z ec is kinda meh on any real meaningful torch.

that was pretty apparent in the 00z ec ens as well. the ridge pokes up for a day...monday...but then is beaten back tuesday and wednesday with a decent cfropa. actually replaced by cool canadian HP midweek. after that, looks like a more mild/muggy/isolated storms sse flow type pattern later next week with some sort of stalled boundary over the Apps. probably above normal but doesn't have the same look we were seeing a couple of days ago.

that's this run verbatim of course.

Yeah agreed..that's what I was saying earlier. It doesn't look so torch-tastic on the op runs..especially around here which is fine by me. They'll be some warm days for sure in the interior..even here.

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12z ec is kinda meh on any real meaningful torch.

that was pretty apparent in the 00z ec ens as well. the ridge pokes up for a day...monday...but then is beaten back tuesday and wednesday with a decent cfropa. actually replaced by cool canadian HP midweek. after that, looks like a more mild/muggy/isolated storms sse flow type pattern later next week with some sort of stalled boundary over the Apps. probably above normal but doesn't have the same look we were seeing a couple of days ago.

that's this run verbatim of course.

Euro looks like a warm, humid Memorial Day weekend with PM thunder. possibly.. I'd love a setup like that

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Monday and Tuesday might be the warmest days. Wednesday and Thursday look like BDL warm spots with light ne winds and 564 thicknesses.

This pattern sucks azz...at least a couple days ago it looked like we could get some marginal severe. Now it will probably just be some popcorn crap where 4 reports of penny sized hail makes it looks like a severe event.

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This pattern sucks azz...at least a couple days ago it looked like we could get some marginal severe. Now it will probably just be some popcorn crap where 4 reports of penny sized hail makes it looks like a severe event.

LOL don't forget rotted, termite infested limbs coming down.

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Typhoon Tip, on 18 May 2011 - 12:01 PM, said:Nah, the Valentine's Day thing was an indictment of the commercialization of the holiday and had nothing to do with my personal feelings on matters of the heart.

Few read that as it was intended, apparently... But, I think THAT particular interpretation bias is more a reflection of individual's own cinicisms on love and relationships perhaps clouding their reading comprehension.

That said, all women suck except for where it counts ;)

Seriously, I do not have a girl friend, but I am fine with that. In this metro-sexual era of women deluding themselves into believing they are non-sexual entities, this is just another fad that will pass, just like the hot hippie lesbo fad of the 1990's, too, had to finally give in to a million years of evolution telling them they were full of shist. And, full of regret once they hit 30-years of age and realized this and what they were doing to be cool. For the few who really are switch hitters - this is not a reproach for you: Have fun then. Just don't advertise it like it is some kind of reason to be admired, because when you do that, it comes across as attention getting, fake, and welll...outright narcissistic.

But, unfortunately, because of this, that means that we are supposed to shower next to naked girls without making moves, and it's like, understandable... It seems that's what girls want. Whatever.

But I digress... I have a few interested here and there; but my issues first and foremost are that despite my verbosity, I have no idea what to say, when, or how to say it, toward anything with breasts. I don't think I am ugly, physically, per se, but in the emotive sense, the girl has to do all the work do to my huge learning disability with understanding them; I don't even know when I am getting a signal, and when I try to give one I have NEVER had one show any interest in return. It's like women just want you to come on to them so they can go home and feel good about them selves - I don't know.

Be that as it may, let's keep this thread about weather.

or perhaps you come across as rude and disrespectful...not really sure if you are or not...but some of your posts definitely have a negative tone towards women...trust me...we pick up on that...even if it's just body language...

don't worry so much about the your "learning disability" ...

i enjoy reading your weather synopses...i can put your hostility towards women aside, and enjoy your wealth or metorological knowledge...

and don't try to hide behind the "i'm just joking, that's just my dark humor"- you thought it, you posted it...it's part of your mentality...maybe you should try to figure out where this negativity is coming from...address the issue(s) and move on, then perhaps you will meet someone...

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