Gorgeous Sonoran Heat Release signaled in the operational Euro

[amarshall]

Nah, the Valentine's Day thing was an indictment of the commercialization of the holiday and had nothing to do with my personal feelings on matters of the heart.

Few read that as it was intended, apparently... But, I think THAT particular interpretation bias is more a reflection of individual's own cinicisms on love and relationships perhaps clouding their reading comprehension.

That said, all women suck except for where it counts

Seriously, I do not have a girl friend, but I am fine with that. In this metro-sexual era of women deluding themselves into believing they are non-sexual entities, this is just another fad that will pass, just like the hot hippie lesbo fad of the 1990's, too, had to finally give in to a million years of evolution telling them they were full of shist. And, full of regret once they hit 30-years of age and realized this and what they were doing to be cool. For the few who really are switch hitters - this is not a reproach for you: Have fun then. Just don't advertise it like it is some kind of reason to be admired, because when you do that, it comes across as attention getting, fake, and welll...outright narcissistic.

But, unfortunately, because of this, that means that we are supposed to shower next to naked girls without making moves, and it's like, understandable... It seems that's what girls want. Whatever.

But I digress... I have a few interested here and there; but my issues first and foremost are that despite my verbosity, I have no idea what to say, when, or how to say it, toward anything with breasts. I don't think I am ugly, physically, per se, but in the emotive sense, the girl has to do all the work do to my huge learning disability with understanding them; I don't even know when I am getting a signal, and when I try to give one I have NEVER had one show any interest in return. It's like women just want you to come on to them so they can go home and feel good about them selves - I don't know.

Be that as it may, let's keep this thread about weather.

I like boobs.

[Typhoon Tip]

Annnnyway ... the 12z GFS "seems" tentatively to be trying to go back toward a better SW ejection of heated air. At 120 hours, we see already a flat ridge in the SE on this run, and just using the 500mb geopoetential gradient as guide that appears to have evolved up to that point in time with equal opportunity to pull some good heat out of the SW. Certaintly there are details to overcome in the overall mass field, however,

[Tropopause_Fold]

12z ec looks plenty warm for a good chunk of next week...might be a bit of dirty warm sector at times but overall nice SW flow and ~15C-17C 850s or so.

[Typhoon Tip]

12z ec looks plenty warm for a good chunk of next week...might be a bit of dirty warm sector at times but overall nice SW flow and ~15C-17C 850s or so.

it's and interesting run, no doubt. It does bring the initial pulse out of the deep SW but as Scott was noting of the 00z run, it takes it S through the TV and lower MA... But the front is wavy and situated N-NW of SNE, and your 16C air at 850 is in a decently mixed conveyor so that would maximize in the mid 80s given that - DPs notwithstanding. The question is, after 168 hours... it appears this run is ginning up for another release - it may or may not gain more latitude.

It's the difference between run-o-the-mill summery heat and getting a mid 90s waft in here.

[Damage In Tolland]

12z ec looks plenty warm for a good chunk of next week...might be a bit of dirty warm sector at times but overall nice SW flow and ~15C-17C 850s or so.

TORCH!! MRG's hair matted with sweat and beads

it's and interesting run, no doubt. It does bring the initial pulse out of the deep SW but as Scott was noting of the 00z run, it takes it S through the TV and lower MA... But the front is wavy and situated N-NW of SNE, and your 16C air at 850 is in a decently mixed conveyor so that would maximize in the mid 80s given that - DPs notwithstanding. The question is, after 168 hours... it appears this run is ginning up for another release - it may or may not gain more latitude.

Sometimes I rip gas under the covers and waft it in here.

Dutch oven?

[mahk_webstah]

Yes ... but, as far as this thread goes, though I agree the appeal is warmer for next week, the Sonoran release was abandoned in all honesty, by the Euro. The GFS was never really on board, but is struggling in its own right to raise SE heights and establish a -PNAP.

That all said, whenever we see a concerted descent among the members wrt to the PNA, with neutral-positive NAO, the potential is in there. The specific detail in how the Euro dropped the plume evacuation out of the Sonoran region, could very well be chalked up to having seen that plausibility in a D7-D10 time frame (yesterday), and therein left it prone to permutation. In other words, eh, D9 outlooks rarely come along with much consistency. We'll shall see if that release comes back in future runs - there is time for that in an overall descending PNA regime.

Without the release, as others have noted, we have a much much warmer synoptic layout, with a clear warm sector penetration through the area for middle week, next week... And, with the general -PNA and building heights in the SE, folks should DEFINITELY suspect that any cfropa may end up muted - that whole thing next week smacks as frontalysis, where a cfront comes charging through Detroit, only to come limping through Albany as a decaying dry line because the boundary parallels the flow along he NW periphery of the season's first subtropical ridge expression. It's the first of the season; the models will most likely err on the side of too much penetration. ...something my GF has never had an issue with...

One vote here for more penetration...in many ways and on many levels.

[Mr Torchey]

you have seriously f'd up views of women...maybe that's the root of the problem

do you ever work, or go outside, or hang with friends, or take a walk in the corn fields.............or do anything besides post on a weather forum? EVER? I feel sorry for anyone that cares about you and wants to share there time with you, all you do is slither through the cyberhole, why dont you GTFO and go back to trolling people to make yourself feel better in ap or ot.

[k***]

do you ever work, or go outside, or hang with friends, or take a walk in the corn fields.............or do anything besides post on a weather forum? EVER? I feel sorry for anyone that cares about you and wants to share there time with you, all you do is slither through the cyberhole, why dont you GTFO and go back to trolling people to make yourself feel better in ap or ot.

nope...never do anything like that because i may run into metrosexual lesbians

[ski MRG]

do you ever work, or go outside, or hang with friends, or take a walk in the corn fields.............or do anything besides post on a weather forum? EVER? I feel sorry for anyone that cares about you and wants to share there time with you, all you do is slither through the cyberhole, why dont you GTFO and go back to trolling people to make yourself feel better in ap or ot.

LOL. I think he's probably going to call you an "icep*ssy" now.

[HoarfrostHubb]

I miss when this thread was about a Sonoran Planet Fart or whatever

[Mr Torchey]

LOL. I think he's probably going to call you an "icep*ssy" now.

LOL, no way I love heat!

[weatherwiz]

Finally had time to read through some of this...some great stuff.

For this upcoming potential I think we can actually somewhat thank this cold/dreary cut-off from hell week. Why is this? Well with this massive cut-off and blocking circulation here in the east there has been some good ridging out in the west and over the past few days we have seen moisture slowly increase across parts of the central and southern US as higher dewpoints advect northward from the Gulf.

With this blocking pattern slowly breaking down and the cut-off finally weakening a brand new trough will be entering the western US and this is going to push everything eastward so eventually that ridging will be over our area. Some of the long-range models are actually developing a fairly deep trough in the western US. This will do several things; 1) It's going to pump up the ridge over the east coast which will allow the potential for much warmer air to lift northward 2) It's going to allow for continued moisture/higher dewpoints to work in from the Gulf of Mexico and work as far north as possible.

Eventually that trough is going to slide through the country and work it's way towards the Northeast, swinging a cold front through. With much warmer temps and higher dewpoints this should mean the chance for thunderstorms with the front. The BIG question though is does the trough weaken as it approaches? Often times as these troughs work through the country they tend to weaken as they approach the Northeast, we don't see much in the way of height falls with the front, lapse rates decrease, dynamics decrease and the lift from the front also decreases. What happens here will have a MAJOR impact on any legit severe chances.

[ski MRG]

LOL, no way I love heat!

I forgot you are one of them. When are we golfing?

[ski MRG]

Finally had time to read through some of this...some great stuff.

For this upcoming potential I think we can actually somewhat thank this cold/dreary cut-off from hell week. Why is this? Well with this massive cut-off and blocking circulation here in the east there has been some good ridging out in the west and over the past few days we have seen moisture slowly increase across parts of the central and southern US as higher dewpoints advect northward from the Gulf.

With this blocking pattern slowly breaking down and the cut-off finally weakening a brand new trough will be entering the western US and this is going to push everything eastward so eventually that ridging will be over our area. Some of the long-range models are actually developing a fairly deep trough in the western US. This will do several things; 1) It's going to pump up the ridge over the east coast which will allow the potential for much warmer air to lift northward 2) It's going to allow for continued moisture/higher dewpoints to work in from the Gulf of Mexico and work as far north as possible.

Eventually that trough is going to slide through the country and work it's way towards the Northeast, swinging a cold front through. With much warmer temps and higher dewpoints this should mean the chance for thunderstorms with the front. The BIG question though is does the trough weaken as it approaches? Often times as these troughs work through the country they tend to weaken as they approach the Northeast, we don't see much in the way of height falls with the front, lapse rates decrease, dynamics decrease and the lift from the front also decreases. What happens here will have a MAJOR impact on any legit severe chances.

Wiz, I'm sorry to say I think you are going to have a very dull severe weather season even by New England standards.

[weatherwiz]

Wiz, I'm sorry to say I think you are going to have a very dull severe weather season even by New England standards.

I'm not really so sure about that, since about 2006 we've been in some fairly active times severe wx wise...we somewhat go through a cycle between active and inactive summers.

So far the pattern this spring has been for some very deep troughs developing in the west and pushing eastward and actually not really weakening much as they move into the east. Even with this latest pattern of the cut-off/blocking regime once this breaks down it appears we are going right back to the deep troughs.

If that can hold through the months of June, or at least a part of it we should see multiple chances for severe wx. However, though after mid-late June or so through July we may not be in a much favorable pattern anymore.

[Mr Torchey]

The post at face value espoused some real weirdness with regards to John and women...the response was perfectly justified. John says he was joking...but no one knew that at the time. Joe has a gf and is going to grad school...adds quality to the tropical weather threads..and he is a conference attendee...get over it. I look forward to dozens of very informative posts about "the best spring ever" with sunshine smileys.

WOW dude waayyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy over your head. jeez./

[weatherMA]

Kevin, did you contact them and say to go torch or go home?

[ski MRG]

I'm not really so sure about that, since about 2006 we've been in some fairly active times severe wx wise...we somewhat go through a cycle between active and inactive summers.

So far the pattern this spring has been for some very deep troughs developing in the west and pushing eastward and actually not really weakening much as they move into the east. Even with this latest pattern of the cut-off/blocking regime once this breaks down it appears we are going right back to the deep troughs.

If that can hold through the months of June, or at least a part of it we should see multiple chances for severe wx. However, though after mid-late June or so through July we may not be in a much favorable pattern anymore.

So, you've got about three weeks to get a thunder storm. Hope you get a chance to post " THUNDER!!! I Hear THUNDER!!!!"..... I love those posts...really.

[ski MRG]

The post at face value espoused some real weirdness with regards to John and women...the response was perfectly justified. John says he was joking...but no one knew that at the time. Joe has a gf and is going to grad school...adds quality to the tropical weather threads..and he is a conference attendee...get over it. I look forward to dozens of very informative posts about "the best spring ever" with sunshine smileys.

You forgot to mention his erudite "icep*ssy" posts!

[weatherwiz]

So, you've got about three weeks to get a thunder storm. Hope you get a chance to post " THUNDER!!! I Hear THUNDER!!!!"..... I love those posts...really.

Don't worry...you'll see them

[Typhoon Tip]

nope...never do anything like that because i may run into metrosexual lesbians

and they are usually torturously hot

[Typhoon Tip]

Finally had time to read through some of this...some great stuff.

For this upcoming potential I think we can actually somewhat thank this cold/dreary cut-off from hell week. Why is this? Well with this massive cut-off and blocking circulation here in the east there has been some good ridging out in the west and over the past few days we have seen moisture slowly increase across parts of the central and southern US as higher dewpoints advect northward from the Gulf.

With this blocking pattern slowly breaking down and the cut-off finally weakening a brand new trough will be entering the western US and this is going to push everything eastward so eventually that ridging will be over our area. Some of the long-range models are actually developing a fairly deep trough in the western US. This will do several things; 1) It's going to pump up the ridge over the east coast which will allow the potential for much warmer air to lift northward 2) It's going to allow for continued moisture/higher dewpoints to work in from the Gulf of Mexico and work as far north as possible.

Eventually that trough is going to slide through the country and work it's way towards the Northeast, swinging a cold front through. With much warmer temps and higher dewpoints this should mean the chance for thunderstorms with the front. The BIG question though is does the trough weaken as it approaches? Often times as these troughs work through the country they tend to weaken as they approach the Northeast, we don't see much in the way of height falls with the front, lapse rates decrease, dynamics decrease and the lift from the front also decreases. What happens here will have a MAJOR impact on any legit severe chances.

I like to call these "temporal couplets".... the counter-balancing positive anomalies for all this negative we've been suffering taking place in time as opposed to the erstwhile counter-balancing massfield... I have seen this very many times over the decades, where this kind of departure is kissed by an equal one in the other direction - when I saw the PNA index tumbling in a decently concerted behavior among the GEFS, and then saw the Euro's Sonoran jest the other day, it seemed more than fitting... Granted, we have lost some of that vibe, but it was D9+ when this thread started, so there is plenty of time for that to return...

[Typhoon Tip]

The post at face value espoused some real weirdness with regards to John and women...the response was perfectly justified. John says he was joking...but no one knew that at the time. Joe has a gf and is going to grad school...adds quality to the tropical weather threads..and he is a conference attendee...get over it. I look forward to dozens of very informative posts about "the best spring ever" with sunshine smileys.

It probably didn't come across as very palatable to those that don't know me, no - Ask Ray, or Kevin, or Will, Scott....anyone though that has been around me at a gathering or two, I am a darkly witted sardonic bastard that relies of self-deprecation and incisive observation for a communication style, humor...etc, much of which would likely go over that particular individual's head - because a, he or she has never bothered to try, and b, doesn't care to because their motives are clearly elsewhere.

Truth be told, I don't have any hang-ups over females, AT ALL. That's the god's honest truth. I just think it is funny to ride that vamp about American women - ha. And, I get around.

[weatherwiz]

I like to call these "temporal couplets".... the counter-balancing positive anomalies for all this negative we've been suffering taking place in time as opposed to the erstwhile counter-balancing massfield... I have seen this very many times over the decades, where this kind of departure is kissed by an equal one in the other direction - when I saw the PNA index tumbling in a decently concerted behavior among the GEFS, and then saw the Euro's Sonoran jest the other day, it seemed more than fitting... Granted, we have lost some of that vibe, but it was D9+ when this thread started, so there is plenty of time for that to return...

How much of a role do you believe soil moisture plays in things? Over the past 60 days it's been very wet across portions of the OH/TN Valleys but for much of the Plains and Gulf coast states it's been pretty dry. Would the airmass get influenced a bit from the above-average precip departures across the OH/TN Valleys? Expanding even further even into the Northeast it's been wetter than average.

The one thing I could at least see happening is perhaps we don't see extreme heat like June of 2008 out of this but we do see much above-normal temps with temps into the 80's and with pretty high dews due to the wet soil.

[Mr Torchey]

Best post ever. Too bad weather doesn't have boobs. Then there could be more like this.

a-m-e-n

ooops the world is over in 2.5 days

[Typhoon Tip]

How much of a role do you believe soil moisture plays in things? Over the past 60 days it's been very wet across portions of the OH/TN Valleys but for much of the Plains and Gulf coast states it's been pretty dry. Would the airmass get influenced a bit from the above-average precip departures across the OH/TN Valleys? Expanding even further even into the Northeast it's been wetter than average.

The one thing I could at least see happening is perhaps we don't see extreme heat like June of 2008 out of this but we do see much above-normal temps with temps into the 80's and with pretty high dews due to the wet soil.

It is important for mesoscale more than synoptic scale - at least, I believe it is over-rated in the latter. In west TX and OK, soil moisture is shown correlatable to the position and strength of dry lines.

If a full on Sonoran release went about its way, soil moisture would cowl.

[CoastalWx]

Still looks warm, but the big heat will stay to our southwest I think. "Warm" seabreezes probably at times next week.

[weatherwiz]

Still looks warm, but the big heat will stay to our southwest I think. "Warm" seabreezes probably at times next week.

Looks like the pattern could once again become much more favorable for severe wx throughout the entire country (well except the west-coast)...first trough comes through here sometime next weekend and perhaps there will be a threat for t'storms with the cold front depending on timing/instability/dynamics/etc...as this trough works past our region it's time to look out west! Looks like a MAJOR trough working into the west coast and inbetween this trough and that trough there is some ridging so moisture and hot temps will already be on the increase across the Plains and the South.

[CoastalWx]

Kevin, did you contact them and say to go torch or go home?

Everything is lowered by 10-12 degrees today. Nothing like having a maverick on the 6pm news and a rip and read on the 6am news.

[Damage In Tolland]

TORCH in full throttle next week. Widespread 80's for all