Gorgeous Sonoran Heat Release signaled in the operational Euro

[Typhoon Tip]

I will annotate this with graphics hopefully this evening for anyone that would like to see this more illustrated (can't do that from this desk).

If you have had it with cool anomalies and cut-off drabby drearies, there is a light at the end of your tunnel, and it could be jolting.

The teleconnectors at the Climate Prediction Center have been gradually warming the erstwhile cool signal that has plagued the index for the past 10 days, that being a rather robust rise in the PNA along with an in tandem at least weakly descending NAO. (That "trend" is more observed on my part as there is not 2ndary differential - that I am aware - put out by the respective agencies.). Currently at CDC, we see differences however: http://www.esrl.noaa.../compare.pn.png ... We notice that the PNA is robustly falling, the extent of which out in time is neutral-negative in nature; but correcting the much standard deviation downward some 1.5 total is enough to assume that even though the index as a whole's correlation is waning seasonally, a last gasp of indicator would at least urge some mass field response over N/A from that much adjustment. What is interesting though, is that the NAO has been positive for the duration; this is in a bit of contrast to the CPC value found here: http://www.cpc.ncep....a/nao.sprd2.gif Here we see a neutral-negative index that is tending out in time to rise to somewhere between .5 and 1SD above 0.00. For those that are not aware, a primer: The CDC and CPC calculated their index using the same mathematics but evaluating an entirely different aspect of the troposphere. The former uses the low level mass flux (wind), while the latter uses the mid level geopotential medium (calculating the anomaly therein). They determine the flux and anomaly respectively, then use what are called EOFs (empirical orthogonal functions), 10cent terminology that means taking the diagna values in a matrix and combining them to formulate a polynomial, then solving for the roots quadratically. Whatever root has the greater magnitude, that's the characterization of the field; i.e., whether the index is negative or positive. Fun stuff, but what does that tell us here...

It tells us that tentatively and probably somewhat more confidently that a pattern change is lurking here ... probably in about 5 or 6 days that differential will be underway. The timing in unfolding that new paradigm, as usual, has a bit less certitude; I am above 50/50 in the change taking place in general. The deterministic GFS and Euro modesl have for many cycles now shown SE U.S. heights rising with variant magnitude; seeing as their respective timings are centered on the mean of the CDC/CPC PNA and NAO modes, and more importantly are in support, that is a teleoconnection convergence of sort toward better than median warmth in the orientation of the departures. D6 --> 10

Firstly, I am aware that there a couple few members on here that think it is funny to make fun of me because I have made reference and effort to the phrase "Sonoran Heat Release" in the past. As a perfunctory lead-in I think it appropriate to say that they are bigger nerds than me - so there!

Seriously, the phrase is not even mine; it was borrowed (by me) from an AFD I once read, though I cannot be more specific than that as my memory for that kind of menutia does not exist. Be that as it may, the phrase has merit and is a study-able phenomenon nonetheless. What typically transpires prior to and during a Release event is a synoptic capping over the plateau regions of the Desert Southwest and adjacent areas of Old Mexico. Given time this effectively builds high heat anomalies in in the 900-800mb depths of the overall all mass-medium in that region. Then there is a whole-scale pattern shift that drills heights downward in the west while simultaneously elevating them in the east. As a response the mean sub-polar boundary retreats N and NW, and we see the establishment of a deep layer WSW flow that emanates from the Sonoran region(s), capturing that super-heated air. The established continental conveyor then pulls it up across the MV/OV/MA/NE regions, often ear-marked in the middle and extended ranges as a plume or multiple plumes of 20+C air at 850mb. If you look at the overall evolution of the Euro from D5-10, that entire script is being played out with a discernable regard.

Obviously this is is subject to change at this range relating to magnitudes and timing and so forth; however, the idea of the significant warming trend and possibly one accompanied with high heat is also embedded in the outlook.

[CoastalWx]

Nice post John. Certainly has potential. The only thing that might temper things around here is the semblance of some sort of boundary that might move through SNE perhaps in the middle of next week..almost has a weak cold fropa. But, that might also just serve to turn winds light se on the coast while the interior warms. We'll see...it does look like an overall pattern change for sure, even if the big warmth doesn't quite make it. Some of the warmth will be appreciated by some.

That said, we have quite the warm stratosphere right now and also a big MJO pulse moving east. One has to wonder if more blocking redevelops once again later this month and into June.

[Damage In Tolland]

All of that post could be summarized by one word.

TTTTTTTTOOOOOOOOOOOOOOORRRRRRRRRRRRCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCHHHHHHHHHHHH !!! incoming

[k***]

how did the last sonoran heat release verify?

[Typhoon Tip]

how did the last sonoran heat release verify?

The last one of these that took on this kind of early signal and went on to verity was the June heat wave of 2008. It was, as usual for those, most felt further N along the upper MA and NE regions; the gradient tends to be steeper away from the ridge node, so the BL ends up better mixed and taps into the heat layer. I think DCA-PHL still had 90-93F type heat in that, but many locations in interior SNE made the mid to upper 90s.

Is there some other purpose to asking that question - it's an odd one.

[powderfreak]

Seriously, the phrase is not even mine; it was borrowed (by me) from an AFD I once read, though I cannot be more specific than that as my memory for that kind of menutia does not exist. Be that as it may, the phrase has merit and is a study-able phenomenon nonetheless. What typically transpires prior to and during a Release event is a synoptic capping over the plateau regions of the Desert Southwest and adjacent areas of Old Mexico. Given time this effectively builds high heat anomalies in in the 900-800mb depths of the overall all mass-medium in that region. Then there is a whole-scale pattern shift that drills heights downward in the west while simultaneously elevating them in the east. As a response the mean sub-polar boundary retreats N and NW, and we see the establishment of a deep layer WSW flow that emanates from the Sonoran region(s), capturing that super-heated air. The established continental conveyor then pulls it up across the MV/OV/MA/NE regions, often ear-marked in the middle and extended ranges as a plume or multiple plumes of 20+C air at 850mb. If you look at the overall evolution of the Euro from D5-10, that entire script is being played out with a discernable regard.

Nice, Tip. I was actually going to ask about "the phrase" when I read the title as I've never read a good description of it... but then once I read the post you did a phenomenal job of illustrating it through words. That paragraph is worth saving and referencing anytime anyone is wondering about what a "Sonoran Heat Release" is.

[Typhoon Tip]

Nice post John. Certainly has potential. The only thing that might temper things around here is the semblance of some sort of boundary that might move through SNE perhaps in the middle of next week..almost has a weak cold fropa. But, that might also just serve to turn winds light se on the coast while the interior warms. We'll see...it does look like an overall pattern change for sure, even if the big warmth doesn't quite make it. Some of the warmth will be appreciated by some.

That said, we have quite the warm stratosphere right now and also a big MJO pulse moving east. One has to wonder if more blocking redevelops once again later this month and into June.

Yeah, this is an early heads up ...already at least one troll is attempting to do so but hiding their efforts to be a troll behind decorum - it's pretty obvious what they are after though..

That aside, I checked the 00z UKMET and it evolution from D4-6 is hitting this just as elaborately as the Euro. The CMC is not ...

[CoastalWx]

Yeah, this is an early heads up ...already at least one troll is attempting to do so but hiding their efforts to be a troll behind decorum - it's pretty obvious what they are after though..

That aside, I checked the 00z UKMET and it evolution from D4-6 is hitting this just as elaborately as the Euro. The CMC is not ...

I'm sure much of the northeast will be quite warm, perhaps even baking across the OV. If anything else...perhaps we can get some elevated convection in here...lol.

[Typhoon Tip]

Nice, Tip. I was actually going to ask about "the phrase" when I read the title as I've never read a good description of it... but then once I read the post you did a phenomenal job of illustrating it through words. That paragraph is worth saving and referencing anytime anyone is wondering about what a "Sonoran Heat Release" is.

There's probably a formal paper in this, perhaps even publishable. Big heat is a phenomenon in the atmosphere of its own right, and one I feel is not respected enough. They come with synoptic and teleconnector/global cues often enough, well prior to their verification. They often come with dire consequences to public health/safety, and also property to some extent. The August big NE heat of 1975 was a Sonoran plume... The big and deadly mid west heat of 1995 began as a Sonoran plume that then was trapped/stagnated by the surrounding synoptic evolution, parked it under building heights that extended to 600dm! There were several concurrent methods for heating the BL in that event.

Theses heat waves kill elderly and the weak, who are too poor to get out of harms way, and/or lacking advice in dealing with such matters. I am not sure, for example, why the 1995 is not considered formally to be one of the greatest natural disasters in U.S. history... Some 1500 people died in Chicago alone, and more than twice that in cattle was lost throughout the mid-west by daily 100-110F/80F regime that went on for a week or more. That's sick! That's real. That's the atmosphere (nature) imposing a destructive force that costed largely... Why it is not formally recognize bears less reasonabiliy for me.

Having said that, I am not calling for such an extreme event. Just an early heads up that there are some signals in the fray. In the minimum, as Scott intimated we are getting out of this cool crap and heading toward warmer times -

[TalcottWx]

Yeah, this is an early heads up ...already at least one troll is attempting to do so but hiding their efforts to be a troll behind decorum - it's pretty obvious what they are after though..

That aside, I checked the 00z UKMET and it evolution from D4-6 is hitting this just as elaborately as the Euro. The CMC is not ...

Tip.. ignore the trolling tools

[HoarfrostHubb]

Thank you for the time and effort put into the first and subsequent write-ups on this.

How long do these events typically last if and when they do verify?

If I have ever let loose the phrase Sonoran Heat release in jest, I hope you did not take offense. I realize you add great academic/research posts to an otherwise mostly banter forum.

[CoastalWx]

12z GFS on board for warmth, though not as prolific as the Euro. Looks like Ray's type of airmass.

[Tropopause_Fold]

should be nice. let's hope once we flip, we stay there. i don't want heat/humidity the rest of the way but some normal temps and sunshine will be nice.

[Damage In Tolland]

12z GFS on board for warmth, though not as prolific as the Euro. Looks like Ray's type of airmass.

Time to throw caution to the wind and balls against walls on board for heat

[CoastalWx]

Time to throw caution to the wind and balls against walls on board for heat

Not so fast, as the GFS ensembles are playing around with my front idea. They are warm for Monday and Tuesday. We'll see.

[Typhoon Tip]

Not so fast, as the GFS ensembles are playing around with my front idea. They are warm for Monday and Tuesday. We'll see.

to mention, the range in question should really be D6 through 10 and beyond... The idea of warming prior to can be thought of as clad simply for the fact that ANYTHING is warming than this attrocious regime we are in now - haha

[Damage In Tolland]

Not so fast, as the GFS ensembles are playing around with my front idea. They are warm for Monday and Tuesday. We'll see.

[CoastalWx]

to mention, the range in question should really be D6 through 10 and beyond... The idea of warming prior to can be thought of as clad simply for the fact that ANYTHING is warming than this attrocious regime we are in now - haha

True that...lol.

I know the GFS obviously can be too progressive as well. I guess we'll see what the euro does.

[CoastalWx]

Nice post John. Certainly has potential. The only thing that might temper things around here is the semblance of some sort of boundary that might move through SNE perhaps in the middle of next week..almost has a weak cold fropa. But, that might also just serve to turn winds light se on the coast while the interior warms. We'll see...it does look like an overall pattern change for sure, even if the big warmth doesn't quite make it. Some of the warmth will be appreciated by some.

That said, we have quite the warm stratosphere right now and also a big MJO pulse moving east. One has to wonder if more blocking redevelops once again later this month and into June.

12z Euro op implies this. Monday and Tuesday are warm and then fropa, followed by se flow, albeit mild. It's still concerning to have a warm flow like that over the cold sst's. It still will waver a few times I'm sure, but I'd say DC and the OV valley have the best shot.

[ORH_wxman]

Euro backed off on the duration of its heat up here...it still gets in here, but its kind of squashed into a 36 hour period ahead of a potent trough coming in from the OH Valley...its actually not a bad setup for Wiz to get excited about severe wx. Probably would be first the threat of the season if it panned out like that.

[CoastalWx]

Euro backed off on the duration of its heat up here...it still gets in here, but its kind of squashed into a 36 hour period ahead of a potent trough coming in from the OH Valley...its actually not a bad setup for Wiz to get excited about severe wx. Probably would be first the threat of the season if it panned out like that.

Do you know what you just unleashed?? LOL.

[Damage In Tolland]

Euro backed off on the duration of its heat up here...it still gets in here, but its kind of squashed into a 36 hour period ahead of a potent trough coming in from the OH Valley...its actually not a bad setup for Wiz to get excited about severe wx. Probably would be first the threat of the season if it panned out like that.

No you didn't just do that

[ORH_wxman]

Do you know what you just unleashed?? LOL.

Lol...if anyone gets excited about the way a potential convective event looks at day 9 on the OP Euro, they should be weenie tagged until fall.

[nzucker]

Lol...if anyone gets excited about the way a potential convective event looks at day 9 on the OP Euro, they should be weenie tagged until fall.

The 12z ECM keeps the ULL near the coast, so the torch is limited in SNE. It eventually brings the 20C contour up to NYC, but it's briefly before a FROPA. Would definitely be a couple days in the 80s/low 90s, however.

Looks as if more warmer than normal temperatures might come in the long-range on the ECM...we've got another trough building into the west with the persistent -EPO block and short wavelengths. Oftentimes, an Alaska block in summer makes the West Coast/Northern Rockies colder than average, as I witnessed during June/July 2010 in Montana, and then you have a semblance of a SE ridge. This is especially true when the NAO is positive, which doesn't allow as many backdoor fronts to spill cool air into Northeast Canada and eventually the NE US. The 12z ECM depicts this -EPO/+NAO scenario perfectly, with big pushes of heat into the Midwest and eventually our area being the result.

[CoastalWx]

The 12z ECM keeps the ULL near the coast, so the torch is limited in SNE. It eventually brings the 20C contour up to NYC, but it's briefly before a FROPA. Would definitely be a couple days in the 80s/low 90s, however.

Looks as if more warmer than normal temperatures might come in the long-range on the ECM...we've got another trough building into the west with the persistent -EPO block and short wavelengths. Oftentimes, an Alaska block in summer makes the West Coast/Northern Rockies colder than average, as I witnessed during June/July 2010 in Montana, and then you have a semblance of a SE ridge. This is especially true when the NAO is positive, which doesn't allow as many backdoor fronts to spill cool air into Northeast Canada and eventually the NE US. The 12z ECM depicts this -EPO/+NAO scenario perfectly, with big pushes of heat into the Midwest and eventually our area being the result.

June might be interesting up here. I don't know if it will happen or not, but with possible down-welling Stratospheric warming and a big MJO pulse moving east...gotta wonder if the PNA goes + and the NAO goes -. I was talking to someone about this, and it is rather interesting. Again...nobody knows for sure, but perhaps interesting to follow. June '08 was blocky, but we had some good tstm days.

[nzucker]

June might be interesting up here. I don't know if it will happen or not, but with possible down-welling Stratospheric warming and a big MJO pulse moving east...gotta wonder if the PNA goes + and the NAO goes -. I was talking to someone about this, and it is rather interesting. Again...nobody knows for sure, but perhaps interesting to follow. June '08 was blocky, but we had some good tstm days.

June 2008 had a torrid heat wave here.....Central Park was 94/61 on the 7th, 93/74 on the 8th, 96/76 on the 9th, and 96/69 on the 10th...the muggies came back at the end of the month, as well. I was away working on an organic farm in Costa Rica, but my parents told me that some of the schools in Westchester had early dismissals for extreme heat...my HS doesn't have any air conditioning, and I think they allowed the students to leave a couple of days in the afternoon after there were complaints of temperatures above 100F in the building. Ironically, it was only in the 50s/60s in Costa Rica where I was.

2008 was a good summer for severe weather since we had some troughing in the Upper Midwest with cold pool set-ups here. It cooled down significantly after June, but we still had lots of thunderstorms and hail into July.

We're currently seeing the MJO burst/+AAM spike, but this should fade in the longer term as the easterly trade winds return to the ENSO regions. I would imagine that this might mean we see a return of the SE ridge after a brief +PNA/-NAO that you mention. I have a feeling the drought in the Southern Plains could also be a contributing factor to the heat building north as it did during the famous Summer 1980.

[ORH_wxman]

June might be interesting up here. I don't know if it will happen or not, but with possible down-welling Stratospheric warming and a big MJO pulse moving east...gotta wonder if the PNA goes + and the NAO goes -. I was talking to someone about this, and it is rather interesting. Again...nobody knows for sure, but perhaps interesting to follow. June '08 was blocky, but we had some good tstm days.

We'd be near some boundaries if we got a -NAO in June....probably some cold pool aloft type convective days. A -NAO in summer correlates well to coolish weather here but a total torch for the SE US....very opposite of what the -NAO means down there in the winter.

[nzucker]

We'd be near some boundaries if we got a -NAO in June....probably some cold pool aloft type convective days. A -NAO in summer correlates well to coolish weather here but a total torch for the SE US....very opposite of what the -NAO means down there in the winter.

CPC shows a bounce-back in the NAO towards positive after a brief dip:

We've really had trouble sustaining a -NAO since the 1/12 Miller B. We've seen a few drops like around 3/24, but it's been generally a low-blocking regime. The GEFS have been overmodeling the -NAO blocking...we saw this with early May, when everyone was talking about a severe Greenland block and potentially a less extreme version of May 1977 with a cold-core Nor'easter, and then we ended up getting warm sectored and having normal temperatures in the 60s.

[CoastalWx]

June 2008 had a torrid heat wave here.....Central Park was 94/61 on the 7th, 93/74 on the 8th, 96/76 on the 9th, and 96/69 on the 10th...the muggies came back at the end of the month, as well. I was away working on an organic farm in Costa Rica, but my parents told me that some of the schools in Westchester had early dismissals for extreme heat...my HS doesn't have any air conditioning, and I think they allowed the students to leave a couple of days in the afternoon after there were complaints of temperatures above 100F in the building. Ironically, it was only in the 50s/60s in Costa Rica where I was.

2008 was a good summer for severe weather since we had some troughing in the Upper Midwest with cold pool set-ups here. It cooled down significantly after June, but we still had lots of thunderstorms and hail into July.

We're currently seeing the MJO burst/+AAM spike, but this should fade in the longer term as the easterly trade winds return to the ENSO regions. I would imagine that this might mean we see a return of the SE ridge after a brief +PNA/-NAO that you mention. I have a feeling the drought in the Southern Plains could also be a contributing factor to the heat building north as it did during the famous Summer 1980.

But on the other hand, if you want to use the soil argument, we have extremely wet soils in the lower MS valley and OH valley. If you buy into the soil argument...which I think has some merit...then perhaps it tempers the heat potential...at least briefly anyways.

[Damage In Tolland]

June might be interesting up here. I don't know if it will happen or not, but with possible down-welling Stratospheric warming and a big MJO pulse moving east...gotta wonder if the PNA goes + and the NAO goes -. I was talking to someone about this, and it is rather interesting. Again...nobody knows for sure, but perhaps interesting to follow. June '08 was blocky, but we had some good tstm days.

After the huge -NAO the models had for May collapsed miserably, it seems very unlikely we'd see one in June