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Cut Off Low obs and disco:


NaoPos

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Meso discussion out for the rest of our area, watch possible.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0802

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0134 PM CDT WED MAY 18 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF ERN PA AND CENTRAL/NRN NJ

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 181834Z - 181930Z

WW IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF ERN PA AND CENTRAL/NRN

NJ. THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE GREATER IF INSTABILITY INCREASES BEYOND

THE CURRENT MARGINAL VALUES AND RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST MORE PERSISTENT

UPDRAFTS.

SURFACE ANALYSES INDICATED A CORRIDOR OF GREATER MOISTURE EXTENDING

INLAND FROM THE NJ COAST INTO ERN PA...WITH VALUES IN THE LOWER 60S

ACROSS MUCH OF NJ INTO EAST CENTRAL/SERN PA AND NEAR 60 IN NERN PA.

ALTHOUGH CLOUDINESS HAS LIMITED SURFACE HEATING/ DESTABILIZATION AND

WEAKER MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES EXIST ACROSS THIS AREA...MUCAPE IS

RANGING FROM 500-1000 J/KG. THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND LAPSE

RATES SUGGEST INDIVIDUAL STORMS MAY STRUGGLE TO ATTAIN PERSISTENT

UPDRAFTS...AND THUS POSE A SUFFICIENT THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE

TSTM COVERAGE THAT WOULD WARRANT A SEVERE WEATHER WATCH.

DESPITE THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY...KINEMATICS ARE FAVORABLE FOR

STORM ORGANIZATION AND SOME ROTATION. TRENDS IN LOW LEVEL FLOW PER

OBJECTIVE ANALYSES AND AREA WSR-88D VWPS INDICATED AN INCREASE IN

WIND SPEEDS WITH SOME BACKING TO SELY. THIS IS RESULTING IN AN

INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL SHEAR FOR STORM ROTATION. STRONGER ESELY

MIDLEVEL WINDS/DEEP SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON

AS THE ATTENDANT CLOSED LOW LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS

SHIFTS NWD. REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED AN AREA OF SHOWERS/

EMBEDDED TSTMS EXTENDING FROM SERN PA THROUGH CENTRAL/NRN NJ AND

OFFSHORE...WITH A FEW OF THE STORMS INDICATING PERIODIC LOW LEVEL

ROTATIONAL COUPLETS.

..PETERS.. 05/18/2011

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new MD says SPC will put us all in a SLGT at 20z:

Mesoscale Discussion 803 mcd0803.gif MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0803 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0208 PM CDT WED MAY 18 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...MID ATLANTIC STATES NWWD THROUGH UPPER OH VALLEY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 305... VALID 181908Z - 182015Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 305 CONTINUES. DAY 1 SLIGHT RISK AREA WILL BE EXPANDED WNWWD INTO NRN OH AND ALSO NEWD ACROSS PARTS OF ERN PA AND NJ. FOR ERN PA/NJ SHORT TERM SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...REFER TO SPC MCD 802. ...NRN OH AND UPPER OH VALLEY... AT 19Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED AREAS OF TSTMS EXTENDING FROM NRN VA...ERN WV NWWD THROUGH WRN PA AND ERN/NERN OH. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY ACROSS MUCH OF THIS REGION REMAINS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL /MUCAPE 500-1200 J PER KG/...FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO A COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING NNWWD ACROSS WV AT THIS TIME IS LIKELY COMPENSATING AND AIDING IN STRONGER STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE UPPER OH VALLEY. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE AS THIS MID-UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MOVES THROUGH WRN PA AND OH...WHERE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS SHOWN BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FOR GREATER SURFACE HEATING INVOF A NWWD EXTENDING SURFACE TROUGH. ...SRN AND ERN PARTS OF WW 305... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING NNWWD TOWARD THE DELMARVA/CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION WITH AN ATTENDANT 50 KT SSELY MIDLEVEL JET. INSTABILITY IS GREATER ACROSS THE SRN/ERN PARTS OF WW 305. THIS COMBINED WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR 35-45 KT WILL MAINTAIN A POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS. ..PETERS.. 05/18/2011

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New meso discussion out, slight risk getting expanded back in PA and NJ.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0803

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0208 PM CDT WED MAY 18 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...MID ATLANTIC STATES NWWD THROUGH UPPER OH VALLEY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 305...

VALID 181908Z - 182015Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 305

CONTINUES.

DAY 1 SLIGHT RISK AREA WILL BE EXPANDED WNWWD INTO NRN OH AND ALSO

NEWD ACROSS PARTS OF ERN PA AND NJ. FOR ERN PA/NJ SHORT TERM SEVERE

WEATHER THREAT...REFER TO SPC MCD 802.

...NRN OH AND UPPER OH VALLEY...

AT 19Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED AREAS OF TSTMS EXTENDING FROM

NRN VA...ERN WV NWWD THROUGH WRN PA AND ERN/NERN OH. ALTHOUGH

INSTABILITY ACROSS MUCH OF THIS REGION REMAINS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL

/MUCAPE 500-1200 J PER KG/...FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO A

COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING NNWWD ACROSS WV AT THIS TIME IS

LIKELY COMPENSATING AND AIDING IN STRONGER STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER

THE UPPER OH VALLEY. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE AS THIS MID-UPPER

LEVEL FEATURE MOVES THROUGH WRN PA AND OH...WHERE VISIBLE SATELLITE

IMAGERY HAS SHOWN BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FOR GREATER SURFACE HEATING

INVOF A NWWD EXTENDING SURFACE TROUGH.

...SRN AND ERN PARTS OF WW 305...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING NNWWD

TOWARD THE DELMARVA/CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION WITH AN ATTENDANT 50 KT

SSELY MIDLEVEL JET. INSTABILITY IS GREATER ACROSS THE SRN/ERN PARTS

OF WW 305. THIS COMBINED WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR 35-45 KT WILL

MAINTAIN A POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS.

..PETERS.. 05/18/2011

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