Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,602
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

Cut Off Low obs and disco:


NaoPos

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 186
  • Created
  • Last Reply

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0100 AM CDT TUE MAY 17 2011

VALID 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC

STATES/DELMARVA...

...MID-ATLANTIC STATES/DELMARVA/CAROLINAS...

WITHIN THE EASTERN CONUS LONGWAVE TROUGH...AN UPPER LOW OVER THE

CAROLINAS EARLY TODAY IS EXPECTED TO PIVOT NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD

TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY THIS

EVENING. AS THIS OCCURS...A NARROW WEDGE OF RELATIVELY HIGHER

THETA-E...CHARACTERIZED BY LOWER 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS...WILL

REMAIN ALONG THE COASTAL MID-ATLANTIC/DELMARVA VICINITY AMID A

GRADUALLY CONSOLIDATING FRONTAL ZONE.

WHILE THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER IMPULSE WILL OVERSPREAD/INFLUENCE THE

WARM SECTOR RELATIVELY EARLY TODAY /PRIOR TO PEAK HEATING/...MODEST

LOW LEVEL HEATING COUPLED WITH COOLING ALOFT...IN THE PRESENCE OF

PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE...WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME

STRONGER SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS BY THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE PRESENCE OF

RELATIVELY STRONG DEEP LAYER SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND SUFFICIENT

LOW LEVEL SRH /GENERALLY MAXIMIZED IN THE DELMARVA GENERAL

VICINITY/...SOME ORGANIZED MULTICELLS/RELATIVELY LOW TOPPED

SUPERCELLS MAY PRODUCE WIND DAMAGE AND/OR AN ISOLATED TORNADO...WITH

SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL POSSIBLE AS WELL.

FARTHER SOUTH...OTHER ISOLATED SEVERE TSTMS MAY BE POSSIBLE THIS

AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...GENERALLY ATTRIBUTABLE TO A

SECONDARY SHORTWAVE PORTION OF THE EASTERN STATES TROUGH PIVOTING

EASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION. EVEN SO...FORECAST THERMODYNAMIC

PROFILES WITHIN A MODESTLY MOIST AIRMASS IMPLY ONLY A

MARGINAL/ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT IN THE FORM OF WIND AND/OR HAIL.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Wow what a bust of a storm so far here in SJ hardly any rain has fallen and radar does not look promising.

Check out the large batch of heavy echos coming nearly due west off the Atlantic from south of Delaware all the way up to northern Jersey. This in no way will equate to a bust. The low to the south in NC is heading NW and with that track, those echos off the coast should put down some copious amounts later today/tonight.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

not up this way, only thing i noticed is my dehumidifier filling ever 24 hours in my basement. :thumbsdown:

That sucks better that filling and emptying it then the alternative right? Yeah everytime the sun peaks out there heads on over another rain shower, also with each passing shower it feels a rid bit warmer not sure if I am right or wrong.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Check out the large batch of heavy echos coming nearly due west off the Atlantic from south of Delaware all the way up to northern Jersey. This in no way will equate to a bust. The low to the south in NC is heading NW and with that track, those echos off the coast should put down some copious amounts later today/tonight.

If you read my post I said so far... The forecast for my area was: Last night - numerous showers and storms - we got hardly nothing. This morning heavy rain - again hardly nothing it is now 2:00pm still nothing, What I meant was so far according to the forcast it has not done what they said. If it rains tonight and tomorrow OK but so far we did not get what the mets where saying at least here in SJ.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

If you read my post I said so far... The forecast for my area was: Last night - numerous showers and storms - we got hardly nothing. This morning heavy rain - again hardly nothing it is now 2:00pm still nothing, What I meant was so far according to the forcast it has not done what they said. If it rains tonight and tomorrow OK but so far we did not get what the mets where saying at least here in SJ.

Gotcha

Interesting how that plume of moisture doesn't seem to want to make it too far west. My guess is we still get some decent amounts tonight. But I haven't check the hi res models today.:unsure:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...