winterwarlock Posted May 15, 2011 Share Posted May 15, 2011 sorry I have had enough of rain the past two days and more to come...keep it your way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PAPPG Posted May 15, 2011 Share Posted May 15, 2011 looks like we are dry slotted! dead center in the low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted May 15, 2011 Share Posted May 15, 2011 I am in Essex,MD with some mean storms heading in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted May 15, 2011 Share Posted May 15, 2011 looks like we are dry slotted! dead center in the low I don't know what you're seeing, but you must be hallucinating. Because there's no low anywhere near you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted May 15, 2011 Share Posted May 15, 2011 1/2" hail in West Chester Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted May 15, 2011 Author Share Posted May 15, 2011 1/2" hail in West Chester Which direction is that heading? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted May 15, 2011 Share Posted May 15, 2011 Which direction is that heading? Radar is showing NNE on that cell. It's tiny though...maybe 3-5 miles across? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted May 15, 2011 Share Posted May 15, 2011 Radar is showing NNE on that cell. It's tiny though...maybe 3-5 miles across? Yep. I wasn't really expecting anything from it, then some hail started pinging off the roof. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted May 15, 2011 Share Posted May 15, 2011 Yep. I wasn't really expecting anything from it, then some hail started pinging off the roof. Nice, was just telling Tom, you should be getting a halfway decent show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 Nice view of thunderheads in all directions this evening. Just a few rumbles of distant thunder so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PAPPG Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 I don't know what you're seeing, but you must be hallucinating. Because there's no low anywhere near you. Dont know about you, but 29.44 is the lowest i had here in 24 days... Maybe check the tiltle of the thread first. And what is this sittting over me? http://www.spc.noaa....r.php?sector=16# http://weather.unisys.com/images/sat_sfc_map_loop.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 Dont know about you, but 29.44 is the lowest i had here in 24 days... Maybe check the tiltle of the thread first. And what is this sittting over me? http://www.spc.noaa....r.php?sector=16# http://weather.unisy...fc_map_loop.php yea there is a low just your west, but thats not why your dry. If that was the case then places to your east would of been dry to. You were just not in the right spot to get the small pop up storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 Looks like I'm going to get my rain....heavy stuff inbound to New Castle County Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 I'm hoping this crap clears out by next weekend......seems that models are trending that way.......or atleast for improvement with height rises. As for overnight, looks wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 0.4" so far this evening. Frequent lightning but not real close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 i'm surprised there have been so many tiny hail cores with such mediocre mid-level lapse rates. weakened now, but it looks like elk county just got a little bit - probably 1/2" or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 Moderate rain here with a few occasional flashes of lightning and rumbles of thunder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 Just had some small (.5") hail pass through Wayne. Picked up about .75" of rain in 30 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 Just had some small (.5") hail pass through Wayne. Picked up about .75" of rain in 30 minutes. Amazing downpour tonight. Couldn't see a foot in front of me driving home from work around 10:30. What part of Wayne you from? I work at the Starbucks right in Wayne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 NAM rather aggressive over the next 84 hours...6z (take it for what it's worth) has 5" of rain in spots through Thursday AM. 0z has 2-3" in many locales. Time to get around to building another ark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eastonwx Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 Impressive rainfall totals here in Martins Creek, Northampton County yesterday/overnight: From Sun. 7am-5pm: .03" From 5pm-6pm: .76" late last night-early AM: 1.44" Total: 2.23" edit: add Sat am thru Sun am amt. of .49": 2.72" storm total Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 0.7" total sat+sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 Total rainfall over the past 36 hours: 0.82" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted May 16, 2011 Author Share Posted May 16, 2011 Mt. Holly's 3am thoughts.. NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... THE WRF-NMM INITIALIZATION AT 500MB WAS SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN THE GFS WHILE THE GFS WAS BETTER THERMALLY AT 850MB. WHILE THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HANDLE THE LARGE SCALE EVOLUTION SIMILARLY, THEY WAY THEY TREAT THE SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE CLOSED LOW,THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY VARIES AS DOES THE SUBTLE DIRECTIONALITY DIFFERENCES. THUS THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO QPF. WE WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW A MODEL COMPROMISE AND STEER AWAY FROM INCLUDING THE CAN GGEM IN THE MIX AS PER PMDHMD. OLD BOUNDARIES DON`T FADE EASILY AND WE ARE EXPECTING THAT TO BE THE CASE TODAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS EASED INTO DELMARVA, SLIGHTLY FARTHER TO THE EAST THAN MODEL CONSENSUS YESTERDAY. THE INVERTED TROF EXTENDING NORTHWARD SHOULD ACT AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND TSRAS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. THERE ARE PLUSES AND MINUSES FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY BEFORE THE GREATER CONFIDENT AND WETTER PART OF THE FORECAST TAKE OVER. THE HRRR ASIDE, THE OTHER MESOSCALE MODELS ARE NOT THAT BULLISH FOR CONVECTION TODAY. PARTLY BECAUSE THEY ARE WRF-NMM DRIVEN AND THE MODEL FORECAST DEW POINTS ARE LOWER. WE THINK THIS MAY BE A BIT TOO DRY BASED ON CURRENT DEW POINTS. CONVERSELY THE GFS AND HRRR FCST SFC DEW POINTS APPEAR A COUPLE OF DEGREES TOO HIGH. SO WE MODIFIED OUR SOUNDING THE BEST WE COULD. WE WILL REACH THE CONVECTIVE TEMP, BUT NOT UNTIL THE AFTERNOON. THUS ASIDE FROM SOME LATE STRAGGLERS, WE HAVE CONFINED MOST OF THE MENTION OF PCPN TO THE AFTERNOON AND FOLLOWED THE INVERTED TROF AXIS FOR HIGHEST POPS. SEVERE WISE THE DRY SLOT ALOFT WILL BE OVER US AND THE MODIFIED SOUNDING SHOWED MORE DOWNDRAFT CAPE CAPABILITIES THAN IT DID FOR SUNDAY. THE FORECAST CAPE THOUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 1K AND THE GREATEST LIMITING FACTOR WOULD BE THE FORECAST WIND FIELD BELOW 700MB WHICH WILL BE MUCH WEAKER THAN SUNDAY. SO OUR THINKING FWIW IS THAT WIND GUSTS MOST LIKELY TO MAX AROUND 35 MPH. A JET STREAK ALOFT WILL ASSIST OUR PCPN CHANCES. AS FAR AS HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL GOES, THE DRY SLOT WILL WORK TO LOWER OUR PWATS TODAY AND THINKING IS THIS SHOULD LIMIT EVENT TOTALS TO AN INCH OR LESS MOST PLACES. FFG AND FFH GUIDANCE THRU 00Z WAS STILL FAIRLY HIGH (1.5"/HR AT LOWEST). SO WHILE ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL INCREASE OUR VULNERABILITY DOWN THE ROAD, THE GAGED STREAMS SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE IT TODAY ASIDE FROM THE TYPICAL POOR DRAINAGE SPOTS. BECAUSE THE GFS VERIFIED BETTER AT 850MB, WE LEANED OUR MAX TEMPS TOWARD IT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 I see some serious flooding if 5 inches of rain falls for the entire Mt. Holly forecast area, with special emphasis on the Schuylkill river basin. Another concern is that we will go into the summer season with huge amounts of standing water in our riparian areas. West Nile and a heavy mosquito population appears to be a serious problem for us this summer. Lastly, with the groundwater tables and soil moisture up, any early tropical storms that hit our region will be disastrous. With these antecedent conditions and the fact that we are having cutoff lows in our area remind me of the tropical storm Agnes situation where a tropical system merged with a mid- latitude low pressure storm and dumped up to 18 inches of rain in our area. This situation needs to be closely monitored over the next month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCT777 Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 Total rainfall over the past 36 hours: 0.82" Yeah, I estimated a bit under an inch of rain in Spring Mount PA for this past weekend through 7 AM today. The lawn is getting high and I won't have a chance to mow it until at least Thursday (based on my work schedule)...and it remains to be seen if I'll get enough of a break in the rain showers on that day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 forgot to check rain gauge this am. still had couple water logged / soggy areas in yard before saturday night rains hit. 1 week of dry weather wasn't enough. heading back to full soggy yard. it will be tough getting next cut in. guess this should be in yard thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 Amazing downpour tonight. Couldn't see a foot in front of me driving home from work around 10:30. What part of Wayne you from? I work at the Starbucks right in Wayne. I am near Conestoga Rd. and Route 30 Have about 1.7" since Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 today's development Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 As mentioned, on the water vapor shot the cut off shows up nicely in Georgia and you can see another low rotating around the backside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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