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Northern IL heavy rain event May 13-15th


janetjanet998

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at this time slow moving thunderstorms are developing along a front over N IL...high PW values wrapping around a slowly strengthening andvery slow moving 850mb low sometimes produce surprise flood situations..

looks slow moving thunderstorms will prime the area though this evening and then a more moderate rain event after that

not a huge deal so far but something to track

12 nam has up to 3 inches over the weekend but is already missing most of the heavy rain today

the NW burbs also have had heavy rain the past view days so flash flooding is possible there

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

FLASH FLOOD WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

133 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...

DE KALB COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...

EXTREME NORTHERN LA SALLE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...

LEE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...

SOUTHERN BOONE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...

SOUTHERN OGLE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...

SOUTHWESTERN MCHENRY COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...

* UNTIL 730 PM CDT

* AT 131 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED

SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE

WARNED AREA. RAINFALL RATES FROM SLOW MOVING STORMS MAY APPROACH

2 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR.

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eastern Tazewell county getting it good ...4-5 inches down..

looks like some large scale vortex centered just south of bloomington with storms and heavy showers rotating around it and more developing

steady moderate-heavy rain here under 35-40 DBZ the low clouds at sunset were zooming north to south with a north surface wind

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Slow moving cells over lower MI moving around 5mph at times with rainfall rates up to 2" per hour.

Flash Flood Warning

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI

934 PM EDT FRI MAY 13 2011

MIC049-155-140400-

/O.CON.KDTX.FF.W.0001.000000T0000Z-110514T0400Z/

/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

GENESEE MI-SHIAWASSEE MI-

934 PM EDT FRI MAY 13 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN SHIAWASSEE AND

SOUTHWESTERN GENESEE COUNTIES UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT...

AT 931 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THE

THE STORMS WHICH PRODUCED THE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL NEAR GAINES AND

BANCROFT HAVE WEAKENING AND ARE SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH. PERIODS OF

HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD HOWEVER CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT

HOUR...ESPECIALLY IN AND AROUND BYRON AND ARGENTINE. RAINFALL RATES

UP TO TWO INCHES PER HOUR REMAIN POSSIBLE.

THERE HAVE ALREADY BEEN REPORTS OF FLOODING IN AND AROUND GAINES AND

BANCROFT.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLASH FLOODING

INCLUDE...DURAND...BANCROFT...BYRON...GAINES...LENNON AND...LINDEN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE

ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS

SAFELY.

&&

LAT...LON 4304 8420 4308 8379 4279 8378 4277 8422

$

SC

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DVN basically says this will be a non-event for our area. Can't remember the last time this area has had anything even remotely exciting. We've been an island in the stream since the Groundhog blizzard.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL 858 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2011 .UPDATE... THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN...BUT MOISTURE IS NOT CONSISTENT IN THE FLOW AROUND THE SYSTEM. THE INTENSE RAINS EARLIER HAS PRODUCED LARGE HOLES OF DRY AIR AT MID LEVELS THAT NO MODEL HAS A HANDLE ON. SO...THE FOLKS THAT SAW THE ISOLATED HEAVY TOTALS IN A RANDOM PATTERN OF SLOW MOVING SHOWERS EARLIER...WILL BE THE BIG RAINFALL WINNERS FROM THIS SYSTEM OVER ALL. THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...WILL DECREASE POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MUCH MORE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE SHOWERS...AND REDUCE THE QPF TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS...AS ONLY A FEW BANDS OF MODERATE RAIN APPEAR POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT RAIN CONFINED WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST. FOR FOLKS NEEDING RAIN...SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING STILL APPEARS LIKELY TO BRING WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAINS...WITH SOME MODERATE RAIN POSSIBLE AS WELL.

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1.3 to isolated 3-4 inches across the area...

12z NAM keep mod rain over the area all day in deformation zone..it's underdoing precip so far..mid level low clealy over central IL about stalled

PW values around 1.25 inches in heavy low topped showers

precip increasing again to my east and will rotate in the next couple of hours

usually the showers will weaken around the low during the day though..but 12z NAm isn;t showing that at all

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no end in site for north side of peoria and areas north to about I-80 as a 30-35 wide of 30-45DBZ return training over the area

2-3.5+ inches down

The airport in lacon IL has reported moderate to heavy rain the past 15 hours nonstop with over 2 inches total now

doppler radar estimates out of ILX seem to be almost right on ground truth

overdoing for these areas on LOT and MLI

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i cant believe ILX doesn't have a flooding warning out for Northern Peoria and Marshall counties

LOT

FLOOD ADVISORY

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

1115 AM CDT SAT MAY 14 2011

ILC053-063-075-091-099-105-197-INC089-111-142000-

/O.NEW.KLOT.FA.Y.0009.110514T1615Z-110514T2000Z/

/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

KANKAKEE IL-IROQUOIS IL-LA SALLE IL-LIVINGSTON IL-WILL IL-GRUNDY IL-

FORD IL-NEWTON IN-LAKE IN-

1115 AM CDT SAT MAY 14 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...

EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN WILL COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...

KANKAKEE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...

LIVINGSTON COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS...

NORTH CENTRAL FORD COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...

NORTHERN IROQUOIS COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...

NORTHWESTERN NEWTON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST INDIANA...

SOUTHERN GRUNDY COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...

SOUTHERN LA SALLE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...

SOUTHWESTERN LAKE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST INDIANA...

* UNTIL 300 PM CDT

* AT 1101 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED

AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA.

DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED THAT BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES OF RAIN

HAS FALLEN OVER THE ADVISORY AREA SINCE DAYBREAK THIS MORNING.

*

THE CONCENTRATION OF HIGHER RAINFALL WAS ALONG A SOUTHERN LA SALLE

COUNTY...NORTHERN LIVINGSTON...TO CENTRAL IROQUOIS COUNTY LINE.

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH TO

NORTHWEST OVER THE SAME AREAS...AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH

THIS AFTERNOON. RAINFALL MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES.

MANY LOCATIONS CONTINUE TO SEE NEARLY SATURATED SOILS...THUS

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL RESULT IN ADDED RUNOFF OR PONDING

CONDITIONS.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

1240 PM CDT SAT MAY 14 2011

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON

.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.

..REMARKS..

1200 PM HEAVY RAIN LOSTANT 41.14N 89.06W

05/14/2011 M4.30 INCH LA SALLE IL TRAINED SPOTTER

12 HOUR TOTAL FROM MIDNIGHT TO NOON. 2 TO 3 INCHES OF

WATER ON COUNTY RD N14TH. DITCHES ALONG US-251 ARE FULL

AND BEGINNING TO OVERFLOW.

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