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May 19 threat in chaser land


Ed Lizard

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Single Cell Storm near DDC is going to need to bear watching.

Storms from OK earlier pushed a cold pool of air north into KS, so that it shut things down to where I thought it was going to be potentially nasty, but it looks like it might recover again.

with the dryline backing up and the airmass ahead kind of worked over it's going to need some help and the surface should be cooling now. last spc meso was not terribly exciting up there.

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with the dryline backing up and the airmass ahead kind of worked over it's going to need some help and the surface should be cooling now. last spc meso was not terribly exciting up there.

Yep latest VIS satellite doesn't look very good in KS.

OK looks better now. Especially storms to the south.

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Your an expert storm chaser now? The SPC will bust and they do it often! I can tell your new to this.

yeah ive only been following severe wx for about 18 yrs. :(

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When you're looking at X band data at low levels it's sometimes difficult to classify what you're seeing.

This sort of small "inverted-J" look is something I see up here in Massachusetts on radar sometimes... I generally call it a microburst, although it's probably more of a friction induced meso-vortex... Maybe someone here more familiar with storm physics might have a better explanation.

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Yep latest VIS satellite doesn't look very good in KS.

OK looks better now. Especially storms to the south.

storms did get going nicely, looks like some elevated a bit --cantore was racing for a nighttime intercept it seemed on twitter

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I have witnessed these on numerous occasion on KPAH Radar - level 2 data. Close range. I have asked several people from the NWS about this subject - there seems to be different opinions. I am of the belief that these could be areas where (what they call) gustnadoes are occurring or may form.

I would love to see a more in-depth study on the subject.

I am glad you brought it up :)

Here are some others... The one on the left (google maps view) is from Holyoke Massachusetts and blew a roof off a small garage.

To the right are several tilts from one we saw in Oklahoma. Also, I called it a meso-vortex, but maybe 'micro-vortex' would be more correct.

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As I was headed home from work, the squall line started going through the area. I witnessed a wall cloud start forming with the activity, and it later turned into the most impressive wall cloud I have ever seen, day or night. Wouldn't be surprised to see damage along the rotation track, as that thing was just about scraping along the ground.

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Just updated a 05Z Severe Weather Analysis for the Central Plains area. Highest instability areas are running from San Angelo, TX to Oklahoma City, OK to Gutherie, OK. See values of Surface CAPES's around 1200 j/kg, 0-3 SRH running about 340 m/s, Low Level Shear is marginal around 20-25 knots. Full severe analysis uploaded http://smartwxmodel.net.

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As I was headed home from work, the squall line started going through the area. I witnessed a wall cloud start forming with the activity, and it later turned into the most impressive wall cloud I have ever seen, day or night. Wouldn't be surprised to see damage along the rotation track, as that thing was just about scraping along the ground.

I bet you mean a roll cloud or shelf cloud. :lmao:

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somehow y'day was as blah than last week on some level.. though at least the torns did happen in the focus area this time for the most part. im sure those southern sups were nice looking as well.

http://www.spc.noaa....10511_rpts.html

http://www.spc.noaa....10511_rpts.html

at least things are looking a little better for some of the drought areas.

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I really like how SPC specified their thoughts on watch issuance.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0828 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0152 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL KS...S-CNTRL NEB...NWRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY VALID 201852Z - 202045Z CONTINUED DESTABILIZATION ALONG COLD FRONT WILL HELP FOSTER TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH PRIMARY INITIAL RISK OF SEVERE HAIL. THE PROBABILITY OF A SEVERE TSTM WATCH BEING ISSUED BY 21Z IS 60 PERCENT. 18Z SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A PAIR OF 1003 MB CYCLONES NEAR RSL AND 30 NNW GAG ALONG A N/S-ORIENTED COLD FRONT FROM THE CNTRL INTO THE SRN PLAINS. SURFACE HEATING HAS BECOME MORE ROBUST DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS AS AN EXPANSIVE CIRRUS CANOPY ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE-SCALE MCS OVER THE ERN GREAT PLAINS HAS GRADUALLY SHIFTED EWD. A NARROW AXIS OF A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG HAS DEVELOPED IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE MIDDLE 70S. SHOWERS/TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY COMMENCED ALONG THE FRONT FROM CNTRL KS INTO W-CNTRL OK...AN HOUR OR TWO EARLIER THAN LATEST CONVECTION-ALLOWING HRRR AND WRF-NMM/NSSL GUIDANCE. CONTINUED DESTABILIZATION WILL SUPPORT INCREASINGLY BUOYANT UPDRAFTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AMIDST STRONG DEEP-LAYER SPEED SHEAR. HOWEVER...VEER-BACK-VEER WIND PROFILES INDICATED IN AREA PROFILERS...ALONG WITH WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR VECTORS ORIENTED NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE INITIATING BOUNDARY SHOULD RESULT IN A MORE CLUSTER TYPE CONVECTIVE MODE AND SERVE TO TEMPER A MORE WIDESPREAD LARGE HAIL THREAT. ..GRAMS.. 05/20/2011 ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC... LAT...LON 37209980 38849927 40699918 41049909 41219865 41059823 40469798 38799791 36319878 36059918 36109971 36609990 37209980

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Good thing few live there, this isn't good for cars or houses...

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX

639 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...

..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....

..REMARKS..

0606 PM HAIL TOPSEY 31.22N 97.98W

05/21/2011 M3.00 INCH CORYELL TX NWS EMPLOYEE

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