OceanStWx Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 Marked increase in SREF probabilities on the 09z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 19, 2011 Author Share Posted May 19, 2011 Radar indicated tornado, with spotters reporting a funnel in Queen Anne county in Maryland, but the entire MA subforum is in OT... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 Radar indicated tornado, with spotters reporting a funnel in Queen Anne county in Maryland, but the entire MA subforum is in OT... tornadoes around here are about half a step up from a dust devil in most instances Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Helicity Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 Marked increase in SREF probabilities on the 09z run. Looks very nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 19, 2011 Author Share Posted May 19, 2011 tornadoes around here are about half a step up from a dust devil in most instances Who can forget TWC's 'Sorm Stories' about La Plata? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 Convective Initiation! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 New MD out for western Oklahoma. Storms are starting to fire along the dryline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 19, 2011 Author Share Posted May 19, 2011 I'm starting to sense some disappointment in the 12Z GFS and NAM, as far as anything big and exciting. Also tomorrow looks more like Nebraska/Wyoming/South Dakota instead of Kansas/Oklahoma. If one is perssimistic, one is rarely disappointed. Not even Noon solar time in NW Texas/SW Oklahoma... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 Who can forget TWC's 'Sorm Stories' about La Plata? Fairly rare. If the coast was further east we might have a mini tornado alley around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 It's about time the dryline initiated... I just heard 100 chasers jumping out of their work chairs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 It's about time the dryline initiated... I just heard 100 chasers jumping out of their work chairs. today will probably be the biggest convergence day of the year so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 19, 2011 Author Share Posted May 19, 2011 today will probably be the biggest convergence day of the year so far Dry line convergence can have so many meanings... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Helicity Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 Am concerned about the HRRR continuing to prog a supercell with high helicity tracking over the WIchita Metro Area late this evening...... It's been damn accurate this yaer so it will need to be watched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 Well, that's interesting... http://wdssii.nssl.noaa.gov/web/wdss2/products/radar/casa_multiloop.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 Am concerned about the HRRR continuing to prog a supercell with high helicity tracking over the WIchita Metro Area late this evening...... It's been damn accurate this yaer so it will need to be watched. Did you see what it did last week? Complete and utter failure. Also, don't concern yourself with the specific placement of the cells... just identify the potential risk over the general area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 Am concerned about the HRRR continuing to prog a supercell with high helicity tracking over the WIchita Metro Area late this evening...... It's been damn accurate this yaer so it will need to be watched. you must have skipped some runs last week.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 Am concerned about the HRRR continuing to prog a supercell with high helicity tracking over the WIchita Metro Area late this evening...... It's been damn accurate this yaer so it will need to be watched. It has? That's news to me. It has fooked up several times I have used it while chasing or watching an event this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 Am concerned about the HRRR continuing to prog a supercell with high helicity tracking over the WIchita Metro Area late this evening...... It's been damn accurate this yaer so it will need to be watched. lol...then lifts it NNE right through my hood. during the last bust it was atrociously bad, so mark me down as unconcerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Helicity Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 you must have skipped some runs last week.. haha, I didn't sue the HRRR last week, mainly cause at the time I use it Morniing of the even everything had already busted. However it handled convection pretty well, in some other instances this year across SC KS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Helicity Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 It has? That's news to me. It has fooked up several times I have used it while chasing or watching an event this season. Apparently not, however the times I have used it this year, its been good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Helicity Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 Flame away everybody Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 lol...then lifts it NNE right through my hood. during the last bust it was atrociously bad, so mark me down as unconcerned. the hi res models arent good for much more than a general idea imo. i think you'd rather they show supercells than not of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 Now that my interest has been piqued, I took a look and the 13, 14 and 15z HRRR runs are insane for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 the hi res models arent good for much more than a general idea imo. i think you'd rather they show supercells than not of course. ultimate weenie porn...if you don't like the results, just wait an hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 Now that my interest has been piqued, I took a look and the 13, 14 and 15z HRRR runs are insane for me. take pics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 take pics. it'll be after dark and i could miss a rope tornado or two Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 Well, that's interesting...<a href='http://wdssii.nssl.noaa.gov/web/wdss2/products/radar/casa_multiloop.shtml' class='bbc_url' title='External link' rel='external'>http://wdssii.nssl.n...multiloop.shtml</a> Could you describe what the purpose of this loop is? Is this centered on Norman? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 those storms in sw ok look pretty hot already.. torn warns cant be far off. new watch for ks soon too it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Helicity Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 Agitated Comulus just west of WIchita in Kingman County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICEHOCEY77 Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 starting to get hook echos on the two southern most cells Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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