Helicity Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 im rooting heavily against this one haha cause you can't get out there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 haha cause you can't get out there? yeah.. i'd like it to wait at least 2 weeks after i leave to get going again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 16, 2011 Author Share Posted May 16, 2011 yeah.. i'd like it to wait at least 2 weeks after i leave to get going again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 I'm really watching Thursday for the potential of a huge tornado day (in terms of a cyclic supercell, not in terms of a widespread event). The SREF is really ramping up now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 I'm really watching Thursday for the potential of a huge tornado day (in terms of a cyclic supercell, not in terms of a widespread event). The SREF is really ramping up now. oh hai there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Helicity Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 oh hai there My thoughts Exactl bro. Just a drive up 177 from me to you lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Helicity Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 Oh baby......... Pratt sounding for the 19th 0z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 17, 2011 Author Share Posted May 17, 2011 SPC Day 3 and 4 risk areas in chase land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Helicity Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 12z NAM faster, and not as good as last nights. Not liking it that much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 GFS showing no cap for Thursday in Wichita, KS... The NAM, however, showing some capping issues for the same time period as the GFS. It is going to be interesting to follow the NAM and the GFS up to Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 17, 2011 Author Share Posted May 17, 2011 Its early, but I'd think if the GFS is close in and close to OKC would be the place to be. The amount of 3 hour rainfall that falls between 7 pm and 10 pm CDT suggests initiation very near 7 pm Thursday, and OKC GFS forecast looks decent for severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 A note from the Wichita NWS... GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE FASTER OUTLIER COMPARED TO ALL OTHER MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO SYNOPTIC FEATURES. CONSEQUENTLY...GFS IS MOST BULLISH WITH MOISTURE RETURN AND FARTHER EAST WITH DRYLINE POSITION. FURTHERMORE...GFS WAS TOO FAST WITH THE LAST SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA LAST WEEK. THAT SAID...AM TENDING TO FAVOR THE ECMWF/UKMET/CANADIAN/NAM CONSENSUS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 The NAM has shifted the triple point markedly SE over the past several runs, which is a concerning trend, albeit one that I'm skeptical of at the moment. This is the reason for the strongly-capped sounding at ICT on this run, as they're actually within the diffuse warm frontal zone rather than solidly within the warm sector. Forecast soundings farther W -- say, at Medicine Lodge -- show a more favorable environment that compares with the GFS forecast for ICT. A growing concern of mine is that the best deep-layer shear could remain a bit dislocated NW of the warm sector, as model trends continue to point toward the H5 low taking a slower and more northerly track. My Plains chasing "benchmark" for H5 trough axes and/or closed lows is the Four Corners area, and once again, 2011 is proving that such a track just wasn't meant to be this year. Not all is lost, of course, as 40-50 kt mid-tropospheric flow can still be more than adequate for late-season tornadic supercells. What gives me pause is that CAPE may not be particularly high for this event, and so I'd ideally like to see mid-level flow more on the order of 50-60 kt up and down the dryline. The slight pulling back of the trough on this morning's runs also has some unfortunate implications on the low-level response. The NAM depicts a weaker surface low with weaker and less-backed surface winds, and the LLJ is also a bit anemic and slower to back over the course of the day. If I'm allowed one more gripe, it's the poor mid-level lapse rates and resultant "skinny CAPE" profiles. On the sounding I linked above, one can see that parcel buoyancy actually decreases with height between roughly 600 mb and 500 mb. This is yet another issue that owes to the less progressive and more northerly trend, and could become a bigger problem if that trend continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crazieman Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 If you want cold water splashed on any forecast, consult ICT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 Cancel, 5/19, I like the 5/23- 5/26th\ much better for tornado potential. I don't go tornado chasing unless I can drink in my hotel room and for the tornado to chase me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 Cancel, 5/19, I like the 5/23- 5/26th\ much better for tornado potential. I don't go tornado chasing unless I can drink in my hotel room and for the tornado to chase me. Then you're not a chaser, you're a spotter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 Cancel, 5/19, I like the 5/23- 5/26th\ much better for tornado potential. I don't go tornado chasing unless I can drink in my hotel room and for the tornado to chase me. Until the Euro decides to cancel that, which it's starting to already if the trends don't turn around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Helicity Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 If you want cold water splashed on any forecast, consult ICT. ICT is very good at what they do, one of the better NWS offices in the nation. But it does no good to compare anyways lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 17/00z NAM reverses most of the bad trends on this morning's run and indicates a fairly potent triple point setup somewhere in C or W KS. Everything looks pretty good for tornadic supercells. We just need the warm sector to expand eastward a bit, and another 500-1000 J/kg SBCAPE along the dryline wouldn't hurt, either. Hopefully, the NAM is underestimating surface temperatures, which would alleviate both of these issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 [/b] Then you're not a chaser, you're a spotter My strategy may have worked on 4/27. Especially if I was in a room with a view. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 Cancel, 5/19, I like the 5/23- 5/26th\ much better for tornado potential. I don't go tornado chasing unless I can drink in my hotel room and for the tornado to chase me. I've been liking the 22-26th ish for a while now. We'll see how things pan out. 5/22 looks epic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 New SWODY2 features hatching along the length of the DL, with 30% probs focused near the triple point in KS. If I'm not mistaken, Mr. Darrow is one of the more conservative forecasters, as well. ACUS02 KWNS 180502 SWODY2 SPC AC 180501 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1201 AM CDT WED MAY 18 2011 VALID 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS... ..CNTRL/SRN PLAINS 00Z NAM/GFS ARE VERY SIMILAR IN THEIR PROGRESSION OF UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE INTER-MOUNTAIN REGION INTO THE CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH BOTH MODELS ARE SLOW TO MOVE THIS FEATURE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS EACH IS VERY CONSISTENT REGARDING THE EJECTION OF A STRONG SPEED MAX THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS NERN NM INTO SWRN KS BY 20/00Z. AS A RESULT...DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS 50-70KT AT H5 BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE DRYLINE AT PEAK HEATING. LARGE SCALE FORCING DICTATES THAT A PRONOUNCED DRYLINE SHOULD EXTEND SWD FROM A SFC LOW OVER SWRN KS...ALONG THE TX/OK BORDER INTO NWRN TX. WITH STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING EXPECTED ALONG/WEST OF THE WIND SHIFT SFC PARCELS SHOULD EASILY REACH THEIR CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AFTER 21Z. WITH MULTIPLE DAYS OF SLY FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MORE FAVORABLE TRAJECTORIES ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...IT APPEARS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL MORE READILY REFLECT A MODIFIED MARITIME AIRMASS WITH SFC DEW POINTS EXPECTED TO RISE THROUGH THE MID 60S SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT. BY PEAK HEATING THE WARM FRONT SHOULD HAVE RETREATED TO NEAR I-70 ACROSS KS AND THIS SHOULD SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR THE MORE CONCENTRATED SEVERE CONVECTION DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. LATEST THINKING IS ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS ALONG NOSE OF LLJ. AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY COULD EASILY SUPPORT MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...OR PERHAPS AN ISOLATED EVENT IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH. HOWEVER...THE GREATER SUPERCELL SEVERE THREAT WILL EVOLVE AFTER 21Z ALONG THE DRYLINE OVER SWRN KS INTO WRN OK. THIS WILL BE DRIVEN BY STRONG HEATING WHICH SHOULD YIELD SBCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG ALONG WRN PLUME OF RICHER MOISTURE RETURN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS STRONGLY SUGGEST SIGNIFICANT HAIL IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES MAY BE NOTED WITH THESE SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. OF PARTICULAR CONCERN WILL BE JUST EAST OF THE DRYLINE ACROSS SWRN KS INTO NWRN OK WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER RH VALUES WILL SUPPORT LOWER CLOUD BASES. THIS MOIST ENVIRONMENT WILL FAVOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT AS MID LEVEL SPEED MAX OVERSPREADS CONVECTION DURING THE EVENING HOURS. SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONCENTRATE ALONG THE WARM FRONT AFTER DARK AS LLJ IN EXCESS OF 50KT IMPINGES ON E-W BOUNDARY. ..MIDDLE ATLANTIC SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW WILL BE SHUNTED EAST INTO THE DELMARVA BY 20/12Z. THIS FEATURE HAS INDUCED STRONG AFTERNOON CONVECTION ALONG THE ERN PERIPHERY ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC THE LAST FEW DAYS AND SHOULD DO SO AGAIN THROUGH DAY1 INTO THE DAY2 PERIOD. DIURNAL HEATING WILL PROVE INSTRUMENTAL IN ROBUST THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BENEATH COLD MID LEVEL POCKET. A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS. ..DARROW.. 05/18/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 18, 2011 Author Share Posted May 18, 2011 I'm starting to sense some disappointment in the 12Z GFS and NAM, as far as anything big and exciting. Also tomorrow looks more like Nebraska/Wyoming/South Dakota instead of Kansas/Oklahoma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 I'm starting to sense some disappointment in the 12Z GFS and NAM, as far as anything big and exciting. Also tomorrow looks more like Nebraska/Wyoming/South Dakota instead of Kansas/Oklahoma. So it sounds like the system has shifted north over the last day or so? Before, MKX was doubting any severe weather potential. this morning, they said it is possible, if not likely, Saturday and Sunday. I'm not thinking much of Saturday, but could be decent Sunday with the cold front barging in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Helicity Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 I'm starting to sense some disappointment in the 12Z GFS and NAM, as far as anything big and exciting. Also tomorrow looks more like Nebraska/Wyoming/South Dakota instead of Kansas/Oklahoma. We'll see. Lapse rates are as sucky up there as they are along the dryline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZackH Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 I'm starting to sense some disappointment in the 12Z GFS and NAM, as far as anything big and exciting. Also tomorrow looks more like Nebraska/Wyoming/South Dakota instead of Kansas/Oklahoma. At this juncture I would respectfully disagree. The wind profiles in KS are looking to be excellent. If there are any breaks in the clouds and more instability is able to take hold, KS could get lit up as instability and mid level lapse rates are the only question marks. The NAM is notorious for underestimating instability. The NAM also still had the triple point in north/central Kansas last I checked which would make the northern target you spoke of crap. GFS is the outlier and I wouldn't look much at its more northern track at this point. The euro and the NAM are fairly close. I'm cautiously optimistic as even conservative forecasters are jumping on board. If there isn't much crap vection and the clouds fall away in places in the morning, we could be looking at a very active day. The favorable shear will possibly spawn a handful of tornadoes even without extreme instability, they just may not be as strong or long lived. Just my two cents. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 So it sounds like the system has shifted north over the last day or so? Before, MKX was doubting any severe weather potential. this morning, they said it is possible, if not likely, Saturday and Sunday. I'm not thinking much of Saturday, but could be decent Sunday with the cold front barging in. Sunday looks decent for sure with the GFS consistently showing an 80kt H250 jet moving through the Great Lakes around peak heating. Instability is kind of "eh" and shear profiles are rather unidirectional but I tend to think that there could at least be a forced line of convection considering the upper level support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Helicity Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 At this juncture I would respectfully disagree. The wind profiles in KS are looking to be excellent. If there are any breaks in the clouds and more instability is able to take hold, KS could get lit up as instability and mid level lapse rates are the only question marks. The NAM is notorious for underestimating instability. The NAM also still had the triple point in north/central Kansas last I checked which would make the northern target you spoke of crap. GFS is the outlier and I wouldn't look much at its more northern track at this point. The euro and the NAM are fairly close. I'm cautiously optimistic as even conservative forecasters are jumping on board. If there isn't much crap vection and the clouds fall away in places in the morning, we could be looking at a very active day. The favorable shear will possibly spawn a handful of tornadoes even without extreme instability, they just may not be as strong or long lived. Just my two cents. Agreed, and even when you go that north you get into a little more meridional flow and veering from 500-200MB, so it could be more jumbled up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 once that cirrus plume overspreads the dryline better in western OK we should see a discrete supercell or two with tornado potential later on as the LLJ increases after 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 From NWS-Norman: https://www.facebook.com/video/video.php?v=2032593143123&oid=189527004401568&comments Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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