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track the squall line and temperature drop


forkyfork

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2110

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0952 AM CST WED DEC 01 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN/CENTRAL NY AND NORTH-CENTRAL PA

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION

VALID 011552Z - 011945Z

A RELATIVELY QUICK CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS

WESTERN-CENTRAL NY AND NORTH-CENTRAL PA THROUGH EARLY/MID AFTERNOON.

A 1-2 HR PERIOD OF MODERATE/PERHAPS HEAVY SNOW IS POSSIBLE.

STEADY COLD ADVECTION WITH A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO

OCCUR ON THE BACK EDGE /ROUGHLY 25-50 MILES/ OF A NORTH-SOUTH

ORIENTED CORRIDOR OF PRECIPITATION ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF PA/NY

INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WHILE THERMAL PROFILES ARE MARGINAL /E.G.

12Z BUFFALO OBSERVED RAOB/...OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS COINCIDENT WITH

SHORT TERM RUC/HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGEST THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES...WITH

SURFACE TEMPERATURES QUICKLY FALLING TO AT/JUST UNDER 32F AND A DEEP

NEARLY ISOTHERMAL SUB-FREEZING LAYER ABOVE THE SURFACE...WILL BE

FAVORABLE FOR A RELATIVELY BRIEF BOUT/NARROW CORRIDOR OF MODERATE TO

PERHAPS BRIEFLY HEAVY SNOW INTO THE AFTERNOON.

..GUYER.. 12/01/2010

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