uncle W Posted June 8, 2014 Share Posted June 8, 2014 it looks like 2014 had the highest rise in mei from mar/apr to apr/may period... year...APR/MAY MEI/ increase 1957...+0.901.....+0.550 1965...+0.521.....+0.419 1972...+0.478.....+0.683 1982...+0.445.....+0.407 1986...+0.488.....+0.322 1993...+1.992.....+0.692 1997...+1.121.....+0.624 2000...+0.188.....+0.709 2002...+0.801.....+0.459 2012...+0.730.....+0.669 2014...+0.932.....+0.780 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 9, 2014 Author Share Posted July 9, 2014 MEI Values May/Jun: .878Closest actuals: 2002: .882 1958: .893 1980: .855 2009: .934 1982: .954 Closest trends based on prior 6 mos; 2014 -.318 -.269 -.017 .152 .932 .878 2002 -.053 -.213 -.201 .342 .801 .882 1982 -.284 -.15 .086 -.038 .407 .954 2009 -.755 -.72 -.719 -.157 .375 .934 1965 -.522 -.323 -.249 .102 .521 .944 1957 -.948 -.35 .156 .351 .901 .768 1994 .334 .191 .159 .426 .531 .764 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 10, 2014 Author Share Posted July 10, 2014 latest Weekly sst anomaly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 7, 2014 Author Share Posted August 7, 2014 MEI Values Jun/Jul: .815Closest actuals: 1994: .8351977: .858 1951: .715 1958: .711 1957: .9242009: .9491992: .952 Closest trends based on prior 6 mos; 2014 -.318 -.269 -.017 .152 .932 .878 .815 2002 -.053 -.213 -.201 .342 .801 .882 .613 2009 -.755 -.72 -.719 -.157 .375 .934 .949 1957 -.948 -.35 .156 .351 .901 .768 .924 1982 -.284 -.15 .086 -.038 .407 .954 1.625 1963 -.701 -.838 -.696 -.814 -.477 -.052 .445 .63 2002 -.053 -.213 -.201 .342 .801 .882 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 6, 2014 Author Share Posted September 6, 2014 MEI Values Jul/Aug: .858Closest actuals: 1951: .847 1986: .811 2002: .928 2009: .957 2006: .760 1993: 1.006 1977: .689 Closest trends based on prior mos; 2014 -.318 -.269 -.017 .152 .932 .878 .816 .858 1986 -.309 -.194 .033 -.166 .322 .316 .389 .811 2006 -.474 -.457 -.591 -.686 -.018 .565 .637 .76 2009 -.755 -.72 -.719 -.157 .375 .934 .949 .957 2002 -.053 -.213 -.201 .342 .801 .882 .613 .928 1951 -1.069 -1.193 -1.208 -.439 -.305 .438 .715 .847 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 highest mei winters...Highest index and period...Dec/Jan mei...Max oni and period...DJF oni...snowfall and biggest snowfall...average temperature... . el nino winters rated by the mei index...2014 last reading was +0.858... winter.....max mei date D/J mei.....max oni date DJF oni.....snowfall.....big snow ave temp 1982-83...3.038 F/M...2.689..........2.2 NDJ..........2.2..........27.2".....17.6".....37.9 1997-98...3.004 J/A....2.481..........2.4 OND.........2.2...........5.5".......5.0".....39.6 1991-92...2.271 M/A...1.751..........1.6 DJF..........1.6..........12.6".......6.2".....37.2 1986-87...2.131 A/M...1.235..........1.3 JFM..........1.2..........23.1".......8.1".....34.8 1992-93...1.992 A/M...0.700..........0.6 MAM.........0.2..........24.5".....10.6".....35.0 1987-88...1.956 J/A....1.089..........1.6 ASO.........0.8.........19.1".......5.7".....34.7 1972-73...1.944 N/D...1.705..........2.1 OND.........1.8............2.8".......1.8".....35.8 2009-10...1.517 J/F....1.148..........1.6 NDJ..........1.6..........51.4".....20.9".....33.8 1965-66...1.477 J/A....1.322..........1.9 OND.........1.4..........21.4".......6.8".....35.9 1957-58...1.474 D/J....1.474..........1.8 NDJ..........1.8..........44.7".....11.8".....33.3 1994-95...1.434 S/O...1.197..........1.2 NDJ..........1.0..........11.8".....10.8".....37.1 2006-07...1.290 O/N...0.970..........1.0 OND.........0.7..........12.4".......5.5".....36.5 2002-03...1.180 D/J....1.180..........1.3 OND.........1.1..........49.3".....19.8".....31.2 1976-77...1.026 A/S...0.517..........0.8 OND.........0.6..........24.5".......5.2".....28.5 2004-05...1.018 F/M...0.296.........0.7 OND.........0.6..........41.0".....13.8".....35.4 1979-80...1.015 N/D...0.694.........0.6 NDJ..........0.5..........12.8".......4.6".....35.4 1977-78...1.007 S/O...0.779.........0.8 NDJ..........0.7..........50.7".....17.7".....30.3 1989-90...0.916 F/M...0.232........-0.1 NDJ.........-0.1..........13.4".......4.7".....35.7 1968-69...0.866 J/F....0.689.........1.1 DJF..........1.1...........30.2".....15.3".....32.9 1963-64...0.856 D/J....0.856.........1.4 OND.........1.1...........44.7".....12.5".....33.3 1951-52...0.847 J/A....0.408.........1.2 SON.........0.6..........19.7".......5.5".....37.0 1958-59...0.804 J/F....0.577.........0.6 NDJ..........0.6..........13.0".......5.5".....30.9 1969-70...0.645 O/N...0.357.........0.8 NDJ.........0.6..........25.6".......6.8".....30.5 1978-79...0.598 D/J....0.598........-0.1 NDJ........-0.1..........27.2".....12.7".....32.7 2003-04...0.519 O/N...0.304.........0.3 NDJ.........0.3..........42.6".....14.0".....32.4 1990-91...0.393 F/M...0.308.........0.4 NDJ.........0.3..........24.9".......8.9".....39.2 1952-53...0.382 J/F....0.022.........0.7 MAM........0.5..........15.1".......4.2".....38.1 1993-94...0.334 D/J....0.334.........0.1 NDJ..........0.1..........53.4".....12.8".....31.2 1953-54...0.314 N/D..-0.049.........0.8 OND.........0.7..........15.8".......7.9".....37.4 2014-15...0.932 A/M...???....................................................................... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 11, 2014 Author Share Posted October 11, 2014 MEI Values Aug/Sep: .500Closest actuals: 1992: .508 1953: .520 2004: .526 2003: .442 1983: .439 Closest trends based on prior mos; 2014 -.318 -.269 -.017 .152 .932 .878 .816 .858 .5 2009 -.755 -.72 -.719 -.157 .375 .934 .949 .957 .77 2006 -.474 -.457 -.591 -.686 -.018 .565 .637 .76 .802 1963 -.701 -.838 -.696 -.814 -.477 -.052 .445 .626 .764 1953 .022 .382 .263 .711 .83 .227 .395 .248 .52 1992 1.751 1.872 1.992 2.271 2.141 1.74 .953 .536 .508 2004 .304 .327 -.125 .221 .495 .223 .478 .671 .526 1986 -.309 -.194 .033 -.166 .322 .316 .389 .811 1.157 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted November 8, 2014 Author Share Posted November 8, 2014 MEI Values Sep/Oct: .360Closest actuals: 1952: .304 1968: .425 2004: .476 1990: .247 2003: .515 Closest trends based on prior mos; 2014 -.318 -.269 -.017 .152 .932 .878 .816 .858 .5 .36 2004 .304 .327 -.125 .221 .495 .223 .478 .671 .526 .476 1992 1.751 1.872 1.992 2.271 2.141 1.74 .953 .536 .508 .672 2006 -.474 -.457 -.591 -.686 -.018 .565 .637 .76 .802 .899 1976 -1.626 -1.399 -1.255 -1.191 -.477 .343 .617 .668 1.024 .947 1953 .022 .382 .263 .711 .83 .227 .395 .248 .52 .091 2009 -.755 -.72 -.719 -.157 .375 .934 .949 .957 .77 1.025 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 6, 2014 Author Share Posted December 6, 2014 MEI Values Oct/Nov: .712Closest actuals: 1951: .722 1979: .737 1969: .653 2004: .795 1993: .826 Closest trends based on prior mos; 2014 -.318 -.269 -.017 .152 .932 .878 .816 .858 .5 .36 .712 2004 .304 .327 -.125 .221 .495 .223 .478 .671 .526 .476 .795 1969 .689 .866 .445 .617 .697 .799 .426 .158 .161 .504 .653 1951 -1.069 -1.193 -1.208 -.439 -.305 .438 .715 .847 .769 .743 .722 1979 .598 .361 -.011 .289 .384 .389 .355 .644 .769 .64 .737 1986 -.309 -.194 .033 -.166 .322 .316 .389 .811 1.157 .994 .867 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 9, 2015 Author Share Posted January 9, 2015 MEI Values Nov/Dec: 0.578Closest actuals: 1993: 0.565 1976 : 0.552 1992: 0.642 2004: 0.647 1951: 0.466 Closest trends based on prior mos; 2014 -0.318 -0.269 -0.017 0.152 0.932 0.878 0.816 0.858 0.5 0.36 0.712 0.578 2004 0.304 0.327 -0.125 0.221 0.495 0.223 0.478 0.671 0.526 0.476 0.795 0.647 1951 -1.069 -1.193 -1.208 -0.439 -0.305 0.438 0.715 0.847 0.769 0.743 0.722 0.466 1963 -0.701 -0.838 -0.696 -0.814 -0.477 -0.052 0.445 0.626 0.764 0.832 0.859 0.7481976 -1.626 -1.399 -1.255 -1.191 -0.477 0.343 0.617 0.668 1.024 0.947 0.48 0.552 1992 1.751 1.872 1.992 2.271 2.141 1.74 .953 .536 .508 .672 .603 .6421969 0.689 0.866 0.445 0.617 0.697 0.799 0.426 0.158 0.161 0.504 0.653 0.383 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 22, 2015 Author Share Posted February 22, 2015 MEI Values Dec/Jan: .406Closest actuals: 1952: .403 1970: .361 1994: .340 1991: .312 2004: .310 1977: .518 Closest trends based on prior mos; Year JUNJUL JULAUG AUGSEP SEPOCT OCTNOV NOVDEC DECJAN 2014 .816 .858 .500 .360 .712 .578 .406 1951 .715 .847 .769 .743 .722 .4661952 .403 . 1990 ..43 .093 .126 .376 .247 .378 .3391991 .312 1969 .426 .158 .161 .504 .653 .3831970 .361 2003 .048 .093 .246 .442 .515 .528 .3192004 .31 1978 -.407 -.193 -.386 -.023 .197 .3991979 .596 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted March 7, 2015 Author Share Posted March 7, 2015 MEI Values Jan/Feb: .468Closest actuals: 1964: .439 1990 : .524 1970: .410 1953: .375 1979: .354 1980: .611 Closest trends based on prior mos; Year AUGSEP SEPOCT OCTNOV NOVDEC DECJAN JANFEB 2014 .500 .360 .712 .578 .406 .468 2003 .442 .515 .528 .3192004 .31 .333 1990 .376 .247 .378 .3391991 .312 .32 1993 .987 1.06 .826 .5651994 .34 .194 1951 .769 .743 .722 .466 1952 .403 .120 1978 -.386 -.023 .197 .3991979 .596 .354 1969 .161 .504 .653 .3831970 .361 .410 1963 .764 .832 .859 .7481964 .855 .439 1976 1.024 .947 .48 .5521977 .518 .258 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted April 12, 2015 Author Share Posted April 12, 2015 MEI ValueFeb/mar: .650 closest actuals 1966: .687 1980: .685 2005: .562 1959: .501 1973: .829 1981: .453 1969: .447 Cloest trends 2014 .152 .932 .878 .816 .858 .5 .36 .712 .5782015 .406 .468 .65 1991 .312 .32 .409 1959 .578 .807 .501 1980 .698 .611 .685 1969 .69 .867 .447 1970 .361 .41 .215 1994 .34 .194 .168 2011 -1.654 -1.552 -1.548 -1.495 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 9, 2015 Author Share Posted May 9, 2015 MEI ValueMar/Apr: .953 Closest Actuals (value); 1980: .914 2010: .894 1958: 1.038 1953: .707 1981: .646 Cloest trends 2015 .406 .468 .65 .953 1980 .698 .611 .685 .914 1953 .016 .375 .244 .707 1991 .312 .32 .409 .471 1981 -.243 -.153 .453 .646 1993 .701 1.005 .994 1.408 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 9, 2015 Author Share Posted May 9, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 9, 2015 Author Share Posted May 9, 2015 http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/index.html "In the context of intermittent weak El Niño conditions over the last year, this section features a comparison figure with similar weak events, excluding prolonged "Year-2" El Niño conditions. It appears that the situation will become more clear-cut by mid-2015, so that a larger sample of comparable events can be chosen. The updated (March-April) MEI has risen by 0.30 standard deviations to +0.95, for a strongly increased ranking, now crossing over the 'strong' El Niño threshold (upper 10%ile). Something similar happened last year when the MEI peaked in April-May 2014 with +0.93, only to drop back in subsequent months. Just two years earlier, it also ramped up to similar rankings with a +1.14 reading in June-July 2012 only to revert to neutral just two months later. Therefore, I am a bit hesitant to call this a 'strong El Niño' just yet. Looking at the nearest 12 rankings (+/-6) in this season, and excluding cases with declining values in the wake of previous El Niño events gives us six 'analogues' to ponder: 1953, 1980, and 1981 (all followed by ENSO-neutral conditions later that year), as well as 1987, 1992, and 1993 which continued with El Niño conditions for much of remainder of those years. Not exactly a 'ringing endorsement', but healthy 50/50 odds for El Niño (higher than last month). Positive SST anomalies have intensified over much of the equatorial Pacific, all the way to the South American coast, as seen in the latest weekly SST map. For an alternate interpretation of the current situation, I recommend reading the NOAA ENSO Advisory which represents the official and most recent Climate Prediction Center opinion on this subject. In its latest update (April 9th, 2015), El Niño conditions were diagnosed, and expected to continue through boreal summer and even autumn with a greater than 60% chance. This month's assessment will probably be similar if not stronger. There are a number of ENSO indices that are kept up-to-date on the web. Several of these are tracked at the NCEP website that is usually updated around the same time as the MEI, in time for this go-around. In early 2014, Niño regions 3 and 3.4 dropped to around -0.5C for both indices, followed by a steady warm-up from March through June, reaching +0.9C for Niño 3, and just shy of +0.5C for Niño 3.4. In July 2014, both indices dropped by more than 0.2C, still above +0.5C for Niño 3, but only +0.2C for Niño 3.4. This continued during the month of August. Since then, monthly values rose to +0.9C for Niño 3 and +0.85C for Niño 3.4 in November, their highest values since July 2012 and March 2010 for Niño 3 and 3.4, respectively. Since then, Niño 3.4 weakened to just above +0.5C in January through March, but rose to +0.8C in April, while Niño 3 dropped all the way to +0.15C in March, but rebounded to +0.7C in April. For extended Tahiti-Darwin SOI data back to 1876, and timely monthly updates, check the Australian Bureau of Meteorology website. This index has often been out of sync with other ENSO indices in the last decade, including a jump to +10 (+1 sigma) in April 2010 that was ahead of any other ENSO index in announcing La Niña conditions. In 2014, its value has varied from +12 in January (moderate La Niña conditions) to -13 in March and -11 in August (full-blown El Niño conditions). April and May were positive, indicating mild La Niña conditions in opposition to all other ENSO indices, but between August and November negative SOI values between -8 and -11 indicated at least weak El Niño conditions. Since December, it rose all the way to +1 in February 2015, only to drop back to -11 in March, and up again to -4 in April. While the SOI remains a noisy ENSO index, it was more clearly in the El Niño 'camp' than others from August 2014 through March 2015 with an eight-month average of almost -8. An even longer Tahiti-Darwin SOI (back to 1866) is maintained at the Climate Research Unit of the University of East Anglia website, however with less frequent updates, although the last one was just completed to include data through 2014. Extended SST-based ENSO data can be found at the University of Washington-JISAO website, which is now a full four years behind schedule (through January 2011). El Niño already went through a four-month 'dress rehearsal' last boreal summer, disappeared for two months, returned for two months, went back to an El Niño-flavored neutral status in January, only to cross back over that threshold in February and grow further in March and April (for the MEI). Will the event take hold and grow further over the next six months, as is advertized by most models, or will it disappear again? It appears that the overall situation is more favorable in 2015 than in 2014 (or 2012). For the time being, at least some typical El Niño impacts may be anchored by positive PDO conditions that have prevailed for all of 2014, reaching record levels at or above +2 since December 2014. Meanwhile, the westerly wind burst mentioned in March may have found a worthy replacement in early May." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 5, 2015 Author Share Posted June 5, 2015 \MEI Value Apr/May: 1.567 Closest Actuals (value); 1997: 1.17 1993: 1.994 1987: 2.14 1992: 2.148 2014: .967 Cloest trends 2015 .406 .468 .65 .953 1.567 1997 -.485 -.602 -.244 .537 1.17 1993 .701 1.005 .994 1.408 1.994 1987 1.237 1.184 1.727 1.867 2.14 1980 .698 .611 .685 .914 .95 1992 1.749 1.87 1.987 2.269 2.148 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 5, 2015 Author Share Posted June 5, 2015 In the context of rapidly strengthening El Niño conditions over the last few months, this section features a comparison figure with analogous events since 1950. The updated (April-May) MEI has risen by 0.61 standard deviations in one month to +1.57, for a high ranking above the 'strong' El Niño threshold (upper 10%ile). This is the highest MEI value in 17 years, surpassing the peak of the 2009-10 El Niño by a few 1/100. The current El Niño has ranked above the weak El Niño threshold for four months in a row, and above the strong threshold for two months running. If it were to remain above the strong threshold for just one more month, it would be the first strong El Niño event since 1997-98 with at least three months registering in the upper 10%ile. By this definition, six other El Niño events occurred since 1950: 1957-58, '65-66, '72-73, '82-83, '86-87, and '91-92, or just over once a decade. Looking at the nearest 12 rankings (+5/-7) in this season, and excluding cases with declining April-May values compared to earlier in the year gives us six 'analogues' to ponder: 1957, 1987, 1993, 1997, 2002, and 2014 (all but 2014 are included in the MEI comparison figure of this section). Except for 2002-03, peak values of the remaining four events reached the strong threshold and maintained it from three months (1993) to 13 months (1997-98). None of the comparison figure cases dropped back to ENSO-neutral rankings before the end of the calendar year. Thus, if it were not for last year's unusual evolution, it would be safe to state that El Niño conditions are virtually guaranteed through 2015. Nevertheless, the odds for a substantial El Niño during the next six months appear better than since at least 2009. Positive SST anomalies have consolidated over the equatorial Pacific, all the way from the dateline to the South American coast, as seen in the latest weekly SST map. While most of these anomalies reach +1 to +2C, one can find anomalies in excess of +3C near Galapagos. For an alternate interpretation of the current situation, I recommend reading the NOAA ENSO Advisory which represents the official and most recent Climate Prediction Center opinion on this subject. In its latest update (May 14th, 2015), El Niño conditions were diagnosed, and expected to continue through the rest of 2015 with a greater than 80% chance. I see no reason to disagree with this assessment. There are a number of ENSO indices that are kept up-to-date on the web. Several of these are tracked at the NCEP website that is usually updated around the same time as the MEI, in time for this go-around. In early 2014, Niño regions 3 and 3.4 rose from around -0.5C for both indices to +0.9C for Niño 3, and just shy of +0.5C for Niño 3.4 by June. This first stage of El Niño-like conditions was interrupted in July and August with barely positive values, only to rise again to +0.9C for Niño 3 and +0.85C for Niño 3.4 in November 2014. The following four months saw Niño 3 values as low as +0.2C, and Niño 3.4 hanging in around +0.5C. The Niño 3 anomaly rose by a full degree Celsius since then, reaching +1.2C in May, while Niño 3.4 rose to +1.0C in May. Weekly SST anomalies show a continual rise thru last month, reaching +1.4C and 1.3C by the end of May, respectively. For extended Tahiti-Darwin SOI data back to 1876, and timely monthly updates, check the Australian Bureau of Meteorology website. This index has often been out of sync with other ENSO indices in the last decade, including a jump to +10 (+1 sigma) in April 2010 that was ahead of any other ENSO index in announcing La Niña conditions. In 2014, its value has varied from +12 in January (moderate La Niña conditions) to -13 in March and -11 in August (full-blown El Niño conditions). April and May were positive, indicating mild La Niña conditions in opposition to all other ENSO indices, but between August and November negative SOI values between -8 and -11 indicated at least weak El Niño conditions. Since December, it rose all the way to +1 in February 2015, only to drop back to -11 in March, up again to -4 in April, and back down to its lowest value so far in May: -14. While the SOI remains a noisy ENSO index, it was more clearly in the El Niño 'camp' than others from August 2014 through March 2015 with an eight-month average of almost -8. An even longer Tahiti-Darwin SOI (back to 1866) is maintained at the Climate Research Unit of the University of East Anglia website, however with less frequent updates, although the last one was just completed to include data through 2014. Extended SST-based ENSO data can be found at the University of Washington-JISAO website, which is now a full four years behind schedule (through January 2011). Stay tuned for the next update by July 12th (travel, sorry!) to see where the MEI will be heading next. El Niño went through a four-month 'dress rehearsal' last boreal summer, disappeared for two months, returned for two months, went back to an El Niño-flavored neutral status in January, but has steadily grown to its highest value in 17 years as of April-May 2015. If it stays above +1.2 for just one more month, it will have exceeded the upper decile threshold for three months running, thus joining the somewhat exclusive 'club' of strong events according to the MEI. Meanwhile, typical El Niño impacts will be supported by positive PDO conditions that have endured since January 2014, reaching record levels from December through February 2015. Daily updates of the ENSO status can be found at the TAO/TRITON website. 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SACRUS Posted July 12, 2015 Author Share Posted July 12, 2015 MEI Value May/Jun: 2.06 Closest Actuals (value); 1987: 1.954 1983: 2.201 1997: 2.339 1992: 1.762 1998: 1.239 Closest trends: 2015 .406 .468 .65 .953 1.567 2.06 1987 1.237 1.184 1.727 1.867 2.14 1.954 1997 -.485 -.602 -.244 .537 1.17 2.339 1983 2.687 2.903 3.024 2.835 2.537 2.201 1992 1.749 1.87 1.987 2.269 2.148 1.762 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 5, 2015 Author Share Posted August 5, 2015 MEI Value Jun/Jul: 1.972 Closest Actuals (value); 1987: 1.855 1972: 1.826 1983: 1.767 1982: 1.614 1993/2012: 1.168 1997: 2.826 Closest trends: 2015 .406 .468 .65 .953 1.567 2.06 1.972 1987 1.237 1.184 1.727 1.867 2.14 1.954 1.855 1997 -.485 -.602 -.244 .537 1.17 2.339 2.826 1972 -.594 -.417 -.251 -.195 .5 1.106 1.826 1993 .701 1.005 .994 1.408 1.994 1.556 1.168 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted August 5, 2015 Share Posted August 5, 2015 MEI Value Jun/Jul: 1.972 Closest Actuals (value); 1987: 1.855 1972: 1.826 1983: 1.767 1982: 1.614 1993/2012: 1.168 1997: 2.826 Closest trends: 2015 .406 .468 .65 .953 1.567 2.06 1.972 1987 1.237 1.184 1.727 1.867 2.14 1.954 1.855 1997 -.485 -.602 -.244 .537 1.17 2.339 2.826 1972 -.594 -.417 -.251 -.195 .5 1.106 1.826 1993 .701 1.005 .994 1.408 1.994 1.556 1.168 Something else to point out... 1997 is the only other year where the streak of MEI values >2 started in June. (yes, July technically broke this streak but the difference is negligible) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 4, 2015 Author Share Posted September 4, 2015 MEI Value Jul/Aug: 2.367 Closest Actuals (value); 1987: 1.982 1972: 1.827 1982: 1.817 1997: 3.038 1965: 1.436 Closest trends: YEAR DECJAN JANFEB FEBMAR MARAPR APRMAY MAYJUN JUNJUL JULAUG 2015 .406 .468 .65 .953 1.567 2.06 1.972 2.367 1987 1.237 1.184 1.727 1.867 2.14 1.954 1.855 1.982 1982 -.278 -.138 .102 -.013 .432 .965 1.614 1.817 1997 -.485 -.602 -.244 .537 1.17 2.339 2.826 3.038 1972 -.594 -.417 -.251 -.195 .5 1.106 1.826 1.827 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 4, 2015 Author Share Posted September 4, 2015 http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/index.html The six loading fields show the correlations between the local anomalies and the MEI time series. Land areas as well as the Atlantic are excluded and flagged in green, while typically noisy regions with no coherent structures and/or lack of data are shown in grey. Each field is denoted by a single capitalized letter and the explained variance for the same field in the Australian corner. The sea level pressure (P) loadings show the familiar signature of the Southern Oscillation: high pressure anomalies in the west and low pressure anomalies in the east correspond to positive MEI values, or El Niño-like conditions. Consistent with P, U has positive loadings centered along the Equator, corresponding to westerly anomalies mostly west of the dateline. In contrast, significant negative loadings cover the easternmost Pacific off the Central American coast, denoting easterly anomalies during El Niño at this time ofyear. The meridional wind field (V) features its biggest negative loadings north of the Equator across the eastern Pacific basin, flagging the southward shift of the ITCZ that is common during El Niño-like conditions, juxtaposed with large positive loadings northeast of Australia (southerly anomalies during El Niño). Both sea (S) and air (A) surface temperature fields exhibit the typical ENSO signature of a wedge of positive loadings stretching from the Central and South American coast to just east of the dateline, or warm anomalies during an El Niño event. At the same time, total cloudiness © tends to be increased over the central and western equatorial Pacific (mainly east of Indonesia), while the easternmost Pacific is often less cloudy than normal east of Galapagos. The MEI now stands for 23.8% of the explained variance of all six fields in the tropical Pacific from 30N to 30S, having regained about 6% since May-June. Seventeen years ago, right after the MEI was introduced to the internet, the explained variance of the MEI for July-August 1950-1997 amounted to 26.5%. This drop-off by almost 3% reflects the diminished coherence and importance of ENSO events in much of the recent 17 years, although it has regained 1.0% compared to last year's minimum. The loading patterns shown here resemble the seasonal composite anomaly fields of Year 0 in Rasmusson and Carpenter (1982). With the MEI indicating even stronger El Niño conditions, one can find a long list of key anomalies in the MEI component fields that exceed or equal one standard deviation, or one sigma (compare to loadings figure). Every one of them flags El Niño rather than La Niña conditions. Significant positive anomalies (coinciding with high positive loadings) indicate very high sea level pressure anomalies (P) northwest of Australia, strong westerly wind anomalies (U) along the Equator, especially close to the dateline, southerly wind anomalies (V) northeast of Australia, and very high sea surface (S) and air temperatures (A) over the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. Significant negative anomalies (coinciding with high negative loadings) have become reestablished over the eastern equatorial Pacific as well as near Hawai'i for sea level pressure (P). They also flag increased easterlies (U) off the Central American coast, strongly increased northerlies (V) over the same region, anomalously cold air temperatures (A) east of Australia, and decreased cloudiness © near Galapagos. Compared to last month, both SLP and SST anomalies over the eastern Pacific have grown in the normalized sense. In the context of strong El Niño conditions since March-April 2015, this section features a comparison figure with the classic set of strong El Niño events during the MEI period of record. Compared to last month, the updated (July-August) MEI has increased significantly by 0.39 standard deviations to +2.37, or the 2nd highest ranking, surpassed only in 1997 at this time of year. This new peak value of the current event ranks third highest overall at any time of year since 1950, with 1982-83 and 1997-98 remaining in a 'Super El Niño' club of their own (for now), with peak values around +3 standard deviations. Looking at the nearest 6 rankings (+1/-5) in this season, and excluding cases with declining July-August values compared to earlier in the year gives us the same five 'analogues' as last month: 1965, 1972, 1982, 1987, and 1997. All five maintained strong El Niño status through at least December of their respective calendar years. However, three of them ('65, '72, and '97) peaked already in July-August (the current season), followed by minor declines by the end of the year. Only 1982 showed continued growth right into the following year, while 1987 had already peaked back in May of that year. Positive SST anomalies cover the eastern equatorial Pacific, all the way from just west of the dateline to the South American coast, as seen in the latest weekly SST map. This includes anomalies above +2C from about 90W to 170W, with a few peak values in excess of +3C. For an alternate interpretation of the current situation, I recommend reading the NOAA ENSO Advisory which represents the official and most recent Climate Prediction Center opinion on this subject. In its latest update (August 13th, 2015), El Niño conditions were diagnosed, and are expected to continue through the rest of 2015 with a greater than 90% chance. I see no reason to disagree with this assessment. There are a number of ENSO indices that are kept up-to-date on the web. Several of these are tracked at the NCEP website that is usually updated around the same time as the MEI, just in time for this go-around. Since October 2014, Niño region 3.4 first hovered around +0.5C, but rose steadily from April onwards, reaching +1.3C in June, +1.6C, and +2.1C in August. Niño region 3 dropped out of weak El Niño conditions from January through March 2015, but quickly rose from +0.7C in April to +2.3C in August 2015. For extended Tahiti-Darwin SOI data back to 1876, and timely monthly updates, check the Australian Bureau of Meteorology website. This index has often been out of sync with other ENSO indices in the last decade, including a jump to +10 (+1 sigma) in April 2010 that was ahead of any other ENSO index in announcing La Niña conditions. In 2015, its value varied from +1 in February (neutral ENSO conditions) down to -11 in March, up again to -4 in April, and back down below -10 since May, reaching -20 in August, its lowest value since February 2005, and its first four-month run below -10 since early 1998. An even longer Tahiti-Darwin SOI (back to 1866) is maintained at the Climate Research Unit of the University of East Anglia website, however with less frequent updates, with the last one to include data through 2014. Extended SST-based ENSO data can be found at the University of Washington-JISAO website, which is now more than four years behind current conditions. Stay tuned for the next update by October 5th (probably earlier) to see where the MEI will be heading next. El Niño conditions are guaranteed to persist into the upcoming boreal winter season, most likely at strong levels for much of that period. Whether it will reach the elusive 'Super El Niño' level remains to be seen. In addition, typical El Niño impacts will be supported by positive PDO conditions that have endured since January 2014, reaching record levels from December 2014 through February 2015. Daily updates of the ENSO status can be found at the TAO/TRITON website, showing a renewed westerly wind surge near the dateline as of the beginning of September. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted November 6, 2015 Author Share Posted November 6, 2015 A bit late but wanted to add for reference MEI Value Aug/Sep: 2.527 Closest Actuals (value); 1997: 3.049 1987: 1.888 1982: 1.808 1972: 1.547 1965: 1.399 Closest trends: YEAR DECJAN JANFEB FEBMAR MARAPR APRMAY MAYJUN JUNJUL JULAUG AUGSEP 2015 .406 .468 .65 .953 1.567 2.06 1.972 2.367 2.527 1997 -.485 -.602 -.244 .537 1.17 2.339 2.826 3.038 3.049 1987 1.237 1.184 1.727 1.867 2.14 1.954 1.855 1.982 1.888 1982 -.278 -.138 .102 -.013 .432 .965 1.614 1.817 1.808 1972 -.594 -.417 -.251 -.195 .5 1.106 1.826 1.827 1.547 1965 -.526 -.324 -.254 .083 .51 .919 1.356 1.436 1.399 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted November 6, 2015 Author Share Posted November 6, 2015 MEI Value Sep/Oct: 2.225 Closest Actuals (value); 1997: 2.417 1982: 2.019 1987: 1.643 1972: 1.651 1965: 1.399 Closest trends: YEAR DECJAN JANFEB FEBMAR MARAPR APRMAY MAYJUN JUNJUL JULAUG AUGSEP SEPOCT 2015 .406 .468 .65 .953 1.567 2.06 1.972 2.367 2.527 2.225 1997 -.485 -.602 -.244 .537 1.17 2.339 2.826 3.038 3.049 2.417 1987 1.237 1.184 1.727 1.867 2.14 1.954 1.855 1.982 1.888 1.643 1982 -.278 -.138 .102 -.013 .432 .965 1.614 1.817 1.808 2.019 1972 -.594 -.417 -.251 -.195 .5 1.106 1.826 1.827 1.547 1.651 1965 -.526 -.324 -.254 .083 .51 .919 1.356 1.436 1.399 1.217 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 5, 2015 Author Share Posted December 5, 2015 MEI Value Oct/Nov: 2.308 Closest Actuals (value); 1982: 2.433 1997: 2.575 1972: 1.747 1965: 1.355 2006: 1.322 1987: 1.271 1994: 1.29 Closest trends: YEAR DECJAN JANFEB FEBMAR MARAPR APRMAY MAYJUN JUNJUL JULAUG AUGSEP SEPOCT NOVDEC 2015 .406 .468 .65 .953 1.567 2.06 1.972 2.367 2.527 2.225 2.308 1997 -.485 -.602 -.244 .537 1.17 2.339 2.826 3.038 3.049 2.417 2.575 2.326 1982 -.278 -.138 .102 -.013 .432 .965 1.614 1.817 1.808 2.019 2.433 2.411 1972 -.594 -.417 -.251 -.195 .5 1.106 1.826 1.827 1.547 1.651 1.747 1.745 1987 1.237 1.184 1.727 1.867 2.14 1.954 1.855 1.982 1.888 1.643 1.271 1.253 1965 -.526 -.324 -.254 .083 .51 .919 1.356 1.436 1.399 1.217 1.355 1.256 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 7, 2016 Author Share Posted January 7, 2016 MEI Value Nov/Dec: 2.308 Closest Actuals (value); 1997: 2.368 1982: 2.418 1972: 1.761 1991: 1.325 1987: 1.284 1965: 1.253 1994: 1.229 Closest trends: YEAR DECJAN JANFEB FEBMAR MARAPR APRMAY MAYJUN JUNJUL JULAUG AUGSEP SEPOCT NOVDEC 2015 .406 .468 .65 .953 1.567 2.06 1.972 2.367 2.527 2.225 2.308 2.123 1997 -.485 -.602 -.244 .537 1.17 2.339 2.826 3.038 3.049 2.417 2.575 2.3681982 -.278 -.138 .102 -.013 .432 .965 1.614 1.817 1.808 2.019 2.433 2.4181972 -.594 -.417 -.251 -.195 .5 1.106 1.826 1.827 1.547 1.651 1.747 1.7611965 -.526 -.324 -.254 .083 .51 .919 1.356 1.436 1.399 1.217 1.355 1.253 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted March 13, 2016 Author Share Posted March 13, 2016 Feb MEI Value Dec/Jan: 2.202 Closest Actuals (value); 1998: 2.503 1992: 1.749 1973: 1.720 1983: 2.691 1958: 1.474 Closest trends: YEAR DECJAN JANFEB FEBMAR MARAPR APRMAY MAYJUN JUNJUL JULAUG AUGSEP SEPOCT NOVDEC 2015 .419 .468 .65 .953 1.567 2.06 1.972 2.367 2.527 2.225 2.308 2.1232016 2.202 1982 -.268 -.138 .102 -.013 .432 .965 1.614 1.817 1.808 2.019 2.433 2.4181983 2.691 1997 -.489 -.595 -.244 .537 1.17 2.339 2.826 3.038 3.049 2.417 2.575 2.3681998 2.503 1972 -.595 -.422 -.251 -.195 .5 1.106 1.826 1.827 1.547 1.651 1.747 1.7611973 1.72 1987 1.243 1.192 1.727 1.867 2.14 1.954 1.855 1.982 1.888 1.643 1.271 1.2841988 1.116 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- March MEI Value Jan/Feb : 2.121 Closest Actuals (value); 1992: 1.864 2010: 1.521 1998: 2.792 1973: 1.497 1958: 1.442 Closest trends: YEAR DECJAN JANFEB FEBMAR MARAPR APRMAY MAYJUN JUNJUL JULAUG AUGSEP SEPOCT NOVDEC 2015 .419 .468 .65 .953 1.567 2.06 1.972 2.367 2.527 2.225 2.308 2.1232016 2.202 2.121 1982 -.268 -.138 .102 -.013 .432 .965 1.614 1.817 1.808 2.019 2.433 2.4181983 2.691 2.909 1997 -.489 -.595 -.244 .537 1.17 2.339 2.826 3.038 3.049 2.417 2.575 2.3681998 2.503 2.792 1972 -.595 -.422 -.251 -.195 .5 1.106 1.826 1.827 1.547 1.651 1.747 1.7611973 1.72 1.497 2010 1.152 1.521 1992 1.749 1.864 1987 1.243 1.192 1.727 1.867 2.14 1.954 1.855 1.982 1.888 1.643 1.271 1.2841988 1.116 .697 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted April 16, 2016 Author Share Posted April 16, 2016 March MEI Value Feb/Mar : 1.96 Closest Actuals (value); 1992: 1.993 1987: 1.719 2010: 1.427 1958: 1.32 1998: 2.768 Closest trends: YEAR DECJAN JANFEB FEBMAR MARAPR APRMAY MAYJUN JUNJUL JULAUG AUGSEP SEPOCT NOVDEC 2016 2.202 2.121 1.96 1998 2.503 2.792 2.768 2010 1.152 1.521 1.427 1973 1.72 1.497 .845 1958 1.474 1.442 1.32 1988 1.116 .697 .487 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 7, 2016 Author Share Posted May 7, 2016 March MEI Value Mar/Apr : 2.070 Closest Actuals (value); 1992: 2.275 1987: 1.866 1998: 2.685 1993: 1.409 1983: 2.824 Closest trends: YEAR DECJAN JANFEB FEBMAR MARAPR APRMAY MAYJUN JUNJUL JULAUG AUGSEP SEPOCT NOVDEC 2016 2.202 2.121 1.96 2.07 1992 1.749 1.864 1.993 2.275 1987 1.243 1.192 1.719 1.866 1998 2.503 2.792 2.768 2.685 2010 1.152 1.521 1.427 .95 1958 1.474 1.442 1.32 1.013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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