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MEI Analogs


SACRUS

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I guess this means that there could finally be ONE solid KU event.

 

BTW, there was 11.6" of snow for February 1995 at Central Park.

 

That one KU event that brought 6-24" of snow from Western NC to Maine at February 3rd-4th, 1995.

wow pretty close lol 11.4 this time. Although this storm wasn't as wide ranging (ie NC to Maine) it was much more intense.

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  • 4 weeks later...
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Mei analogs

 

Actual value:   Jan/Feb -.163

 

 

Closest analogs:

 

1981: -.162

1982: -.146

2002:  -.210

1960: -.262

1954:  -.018

 

Closest trends;


YEAR DECJAN JANFEB F

 

2013 .042 -.163

 

2002	-.05	-.211954	-.051	-.0181981	-.245	-.1621952	.406	.131
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  • 1 month later...

Mei analogs

 

Actual value: Feb/Mar: -.171

 

Closest analogs:

2002: -.201

2004:  -.125

1961: --.082

1965: -.249

1972: -.253

1997: -.254

1996: -.264

 

Closest trends (last 12 mos) 

 

2013 .042 -.163 -.171
 

 

2002 -.05 -.21 -.201

1961 -.152 -.267 -.082

1982 -.282 -.146 .086

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  • 3 weeks later...

Mei analogs

 

Actual value: MAr/Apr  .009

 

Closest analogs:

1961: .018

1960: .019
2012: .058
1982: -.041

1965: .104
 

 

Closest trends (last 12 mos)

 

2013 .042 -.163 -.171 .009
 

 

2002 -.05 -.21 -.201 .339
2009 -.752 -.719 -.719 -.159
1961 -.152 -.267 -.082 .018

1982 -.282 -.146 .086 -.041

1965 -.525 -.323 -.249 .104

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  • 1 month later...

Mei analogs

 

Actual value Apr/May:  .069

 

Closest analogs:
 

 

1988: .085

2003:  .048

1959:  .017

1984: .121

2006: -.036

 

Closest trends

 

2013 .042 -.163 -.171 .009 .069

 

 

2001 -.539 -.717 -.607 -.146 .185

1961 -.152 -.267 -.082 .018 -.284

1959 .574 .804 .502 .217 .017

1984 -.339 -.565 .131 .331 .121

1996 -.644 -.595 -.264 -.505 -.178 

2003 1.184 .927 .819 .308 .048

 

 

 

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  • 3 weeks later...

Mei analogs

 

Actual value May/Jun: -.298

 

Closest actual:

 

1989: -.273

1960: -.237

1967: -.362

1984: -.142

2007: -.358

1966: -.149

 

 

Closest trends

 

2013    .042    -.163    -.171    .009    .069    -.298

 

2001    -.539    -.717    -.607    -.146    .185    -.076 

1961    -.152    -.267    -.082    .018    -.284    -.069   

1984    -.339    -.565    .131    .331    .121    -.142    -.138 

1996    -.644    -.595    -.264    -.505    -.178    -.001

1960    -.311    -.262    -.08    .019    -.325    -.237

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  • 1 month later...

Actual value Jun/Jul: -.469

 

Closest actual:

 

 

1999: -.474

1989: -.457

1978: -.401

1968: -.549

1960: -.358

 

 

 

Closest trends;

 

2013 .042 -.163 -.171 .009 .069 -.298 -.469

 

 

1960 -.311 -.262 -.08 .019 -.325 -.237 -.358

1961 -.152 -.267 -.082 .018 -.284 -.069 -.153

1984 -.339 -.565 .131 .331 .121 -.142 -.149

1996 -.644 -.595 -.264 -.505 -.178 -.001 -.219

1985 -.561 -.602 -.737 -.484 -.731 -.0

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Actual value Jun/Jul: -.469

Closest actual:

1999: -.474

1989: -.457

1978: -.401

1968: -.549

1960: -.358

Closest trends;

2013 .042 -.163 -.171 .009 .069 -.298 -.469

1960 -.311 -.262 -.08 .019 -.325 -.237 -.358

1961 -.152 -.267 -.082 .018 -.284 -.069 -.153

1984 -.339 -.565 .131 .331 .121 -.142 -.149

1996 -.644 -.595 -.264 -.505 -.178 -.001 -.219

1985 -.561 -.602 -.737 -.484 -.731 -.0

SACRUS: Could you explain in short what the MEI measurements mean? I think i can deduce from your comparisons trends towards analogous years, but I'd like to know what it measures. Thanks.
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BK its an index that measures several ENSO values. Best explained http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/

Thank you. I know you have posted this index going back years now and inferred it was analog based, but never knew based upon what. Don't notice memorable winters in those trends, but 3 NE tropical cyclone hits I believe are in there (60, 85, and 96). But I presume ENSO trends are far more correlative to winter outcomes on weather than tropical ones. I suspect Uncle has already worked out at some time ENSO matchups with tri-state tropical impacts.

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  • 3 weeks later...

Actual value Jul/Aug: -.614

 

Closest actual:

 

 

1974: -.622

1962: -.554

1999: -.796

1989: -.497

2011: -.491

2007: -.464

 

 

Closest trends;

 

2013 .042 -.163 -.171 .009 .069 -.298 -.469 -.614

 

 

1961 -.152 -.267 -.082 .018 -.284 -.069 -.153 -.234

1984 -.339 -.565 .131 .331 .121 -.142 -.149 -.184

1960 -.311 -.262 -.08 .019 -.325 -.237 -.358 -.251

1952 .406 .131 .086 .262 -.267 -.634 -.231 -.156

1981 -.245 -.162 .443 .637 .119 -.023 -.039 -.077

 

2007 .974 .51 .074 -.049 .183 -.358 -.322 -.464

1967 -.473 -.939 -1.079 -1.067 -.478 -.362 -.641 -.427

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  • 1 month later...

Actual value Aug/Sep: -.19

 

Closest actual:

 

2000: -.247

1961: -.263

1989: -.279

2001: -.127

1984: -.084

 

 

 

Closest trends;

 

 

2013 .042 -.163 -.171 .009 .069 -.298 -.469 -.614 -.19

 

1961 -.152 -.267 -.082 .018 -.284 -.069 -.153 -.234 -.263

1960 -.311 -.262 -.08 .019 -.325 -.237 -.358 -.251 -.474

2001 -.539 -.717 -.607 -.146 .185 -.076 .236 .366 -.127

2000 -1.197 -1.246 -1.138 -.521 .157 -.15 -.211 -.149 -.247

1984 -.339 -.565 .131 .331 .121 -.142 -.149 -.184 -.084

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  • 5 weeks later...

Actual value Sep/Oct: .094

 

Closest actual:

 

1953: .092

1981: .089

2012: .105

1984: .016

1983: .002

1980: .206

 

Closest trends;

 

2013 .042 -.163 -.171 .009 .069 -.298 -.469 -.614 -.19 .094
 

 

2001 -.539 -.717 -.607 -.146 .185 -.076 .236 .366 -.127 -.275

1981 -.245 -.162 .443 .637 .119 -.023 -.039 -.077 .181 .089

1984 -.339 -.565 .131 .331 .121 -.142 -.149 -.184 -.084 .016

1966 1.311 1.191 .697 .556 -.133 -.123 -.149 .166 -.087 -.014
 

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  • 5 weeks later...

Actual value Oct/Nov: -.093

 

Closest actual:

 

 

1989: -.067

1981: -.055

1985: -.051

1996: -.163

1966: .026

1953: .049

 

 

 

Closest trends;

 

2013 .042 -.163 -.171 .009 .069 -.298 -.469 -.614 -.19 .094 -.093

 

1953 .024 .379 .263 .712 .84 .241 .416 .253 .524 .092 .049

1981 -.245 -.162 .443 .637 .119 -.023 -.039 -.077 .181 .089 -.055

2001 -.539 -.717 -.607 -.146 .185 -.076 .236 .366 -.127 -.275 -.181

1985 -.561 -.602 -.737 -.484 -.731 -.086 -.149 -.398 -.542 -.141 -.051

1989 -1.166 -1.312 -1.056 -.842 -.488 -.273 -.457 -.497 -.279 -.317 -.067

1966 1.311 1.191 .697 .556 -.133 -.123 -.149 .166 -.087 -.014 .026

 

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Actual value Oct/Nov: -.093

 

Closest actual:

 

 

1989: -.067

1981: -.055

1985: -.051

1996: -.163

1966: .026

1953: .049

 

 

 

Closest trends;

 

2013 .042 -.163 -.171 .009 .069 -.298 -.469 -.614 -.19 .094 -.093

 

1953 .024 .379 .263 .712 .84 .241 .416 .253 .524 .092 .049

1981 -.245 -.162 .443 .637 .119 -.023 -.039 -.077 .181 .089 -.055

2001 -.539 -.717 -.607 -.146 .185 -.076 .236 .366 -.127 -.275 -.181

1985 -.561 -.602 -.737 -.484 -.731 -.086 -.149 -.398 -.542 -.141 -.051

1989 -1.166 -1.312 -1.056 -.842 -.488 -.273 -.457 -.497 -.279 -.317 -.067

1966 1.311 1.191 .697 .556 -.133 -.123 -.149 .166 -.087 -.014 .026

not a lot of winners on that list, except 66-67

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Actual value Nov/Dec: -.312

 

Closest actual:

 

1996: -.341

1967: -.366

1959:  -.265

1960:  -.432

1962: -.476

 

 

 

Closest trends;

 

2013 .042 -.163 -.171 .009 .069 -.298 -.469 -.614 -.19 .094 -.093 -.312

 

 

1953 .024 .379 .263 .712 .84 .241 .416 .253 .524 .092 .049 .314
1966 1.311 1.191 .697 .556 -.133 -.123 -.149 .166 -.087 -.014 .026 -.182

1981 -.245 -.162 .443 .637 .119 -.023 -.039 -.077 .181 .089 -.055 -.153

2001 -.539 -.717 -.607 -.146 .185 -.076 .236 .366 -.127 -.275 -.181 -.001
1985 -.561 -.602 -.737 -.484 -.731 -.086 -.149 -.398 -.542 -.141 -.051 -.293


 

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  • 4 weeks later...
  • 1 month later...

MEI Value Jan/Feb: -.269

Closest actuals:

 

1961: -.267
1960: -.260

2002: -.213

1986: -.194

1957: -.350

 

 

Closest trends based on prior 6 mos;

 

2014 -.345 -.269

 

2002 -.079 -.213

1986 -.335 -.194

1961 -.177 -.267

1981 -.274 -.165

2013 .013 -.165
 

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  • 4 weeks later...

MEI Value Feb/Mar: -.017

Closest actuals:

 

 

1979: -.011

1960: -.08

1961: -.082

1986: .033

2007: .074

1952: .086

 

 

Closest trends based on prior 6 mos;

 

2014 -.318 -.269 -.017

 

 

1960 -.311 -.26 -.08

1986 -.309 -.194 .033

2002 -.053 -.213 -.201

2012 -1.049 -.705 -.417

1982 -.284 -.15 .086

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  • 4 weeks later...

MEI Value Mar/Apr: .152

Closest actuals:

 

1978: .181

1965: .102

1959: .218

2004: .221

2012: .061

 

 

Closest trends based on prior 6 mos;

 

2014 -.318 -.269 -.017 .152

 

 

2002 -.053 -.213 -.201 .342

1960 -.311 -.26 -.08 .017

1986 -.309 -.194 .033 -.166

1982 -.284 -.15 .086 -.038

2009 -.755 -.72 -.719 -.157

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  • 5 weeks later...

MEI Value Apr/May: .932

Closest actuals:

 

1980: .922

1957: .901

1953: .830

2002: .801

1997: 1.121

 

 

 

Closest trends based on prior 6 mos;

 

2014 -.318 -.269 -.017 .152 .932
 

 

2002 -.053 -.213 -.201 .342 .801

1982 -.284 -.15 .086 -.038 .407

1986 -.309 -.194 .033 -.166 .322

2009 -.755 -.72 -.719 -.157 .375

1997 -.491 -.611 -.254 .497 1.121

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