MEI Analogs

[uncle W]

ASO oni index is -0.4...Other years with a similar index for ASO period...

2011...-0.4 and getting stronger...maybe a weak to moderate nina coming up...

2000...-0.4 got a little stronger...weak nina

1995...-0.5 got a little stronger...weak nina

1989...-0.3 remained steady and weakened...neutral

1985...-0.5 remained steady and weakened...neutral

1984...-0.3 got a little stronger...weak nina

1981...-0.3 remained steady and weakened...neutral

1978...-0.4 remained steady and weakened...neutral

1967...-0.4 got a little stronger...weak nina...

1962...-0.5 got a little stronger...weak nina...

1959...-0.4 remained steady and weakened...neutral

I doubt we see a neutral winter...It will probably be a weak or moderate nina...1967 has the same index for the last 4 tri monthly readings...

[SACRUS]

Oct/Nov : -.980

Closest actuals;

1956: -1.036

1999: -1.08

1970: -1.096

1954: -1.146

1964: -1.194

2000: -.755

closest trends:

2011 -1.654 -1.552 -1.548 -1.495 -.368 -.225 -.147 -.503 -.772 -.968 -.98

1999 -1.109 -1.219 -1.043 -1.026 -.727 -.449 -.5 -.802 -1.009 -1.013 -1.08

1974 -1.937 -1.797 -1.769 -1.684 -1.09 -.658 -.74 -.628 -.61 -1.049 -1.255

2000 -1.172 -1.228 -1.117 -.525 .118 -.162 -.219 -.146 -.249 -.382 -.755

2008 -.984 -1.389 -1.619 -.945 -.39 .102 -.047 -.286 -.653 -.783 -.625

1956 -1.445 -1.306 -1.399 -1.157 -1.306 -1.516 -1.207 -1.14 -1.363 -1.463 -1.036

[SACRUS]

MEI Value Nov/Dec: -.979

Closest actuals:

1971: -1.006

1998: -1.012

1956: -1.014

1974: -.929

1964: -.905

Cloest trends:

2011 -1.654 -1.552 -1.548 -1.495 -.368 -.225 -.147 -.503 -.772 -.968 -.98 -.979

1999 -1.109 -1.219 -1.043 -1.026 -.727 -.449 -.5 -.802 -1.009 -1.013 -1.08 -1.208

1974 -1.937 -1.797 -1.769 -1.684 -1.09 -.658 -.74 -.628 -.61 -1.049 -1.255 -.929

1971 -1.216 -1.523 -1.811 -1.898 -1.481 -1.511 -1.24 -1.233 -1.463 -1.421 -1.305 -1.006

1950 -1.046 -1.148 -1.287 -1.058 -1.423 -1.363 -1.342 -1.066 -.576 -.394 -1.154 -1.247

2008 -.984 -1.389 -1.619 -.945 -.39 .102 -.047 -.286 -.653 -.783 -.625 -.667

2000 -1.172 -1.228 -1.117 -.525 .118 -.162 -.219 -.146 -.249 -.382 -.755 -.581

[SACRUS]

MEI Value Dec/Jan: -1.046

Closest actuals:

1951: -1.068

1950: -1.022

2008: -1.012

1962: -1.093

1999: -1.151

1989: -1.167

2000: -1.198

Cloest trends:

2011 -1.678 -1.552 -1.548 -1.495 -.368 -.225 -.147 -.503 -.772 -.968 -.98 -.979

2012 -1.046

2008 -1.012 -1.389 -1.619 -.945 -.39 .102 -.047 -.286 -.653 -.783 -.625 -.667

2009 -.753

1962 -1.093 -.993 -.72 -1.023 -.931 -.857 -.718 -.556 -.55 -.655 -.594 -.478

1963 -.702

1950 -1.022 -1.148 -1.287 -1.058 -1.423 -1.363 -1.342 -1.066 -.576 -.394 -1.154 -1.247

1951 -1.068

1988 1.091 .675 .47 .305 .075 -.71 -1.187 -1.382 -1.591 -1.351 -1.468 -1.343

1989 -1.167

1999 -1.151 -1.219 -1.043 -1.026 -.727 -.449 -.5 -.802 -1.009 -1.013 -1.08 -1.208

2000 -1.198

[SACRUS]

MEI Value Jan/Feb: -.702

Closest actuals:

1968: -.706

2001: -.713

1955: -.695

1997: -.607

1975: -.604

1985: -.601

1963: -.843

2012 -1.046 -.702

closest trends

2008 -1.012 -1.398

1955 -.771 -.695

1999 -1.151 -1.233

1951 -1.068 -1.196

2000 -1.198 -1.242

1963 -.702 -.843

1968 -.595 -.706

[SACRUS]

MEI Value Jan/Feb: -.41

Closest actuals:

2006: -.588

1964: -.617

1996: -.266

1972 : -.255

1997: -.253

2001: -.603

YEAR DECJAN JANFEB FEBMAR

2012 -1.046 -.702 -.41

closest trends

2009 -.753 -.715 -.713

1972 -.593 -.408 -.255

2001 -.54 -.713 -.603

1968 -.595 -.706 -.618

1963 -.702 -.843 -.701

1996 -.644 -.595 -.26

[JBG]

I could use a 1955-like summer aroiund here; 1999 wasn't too shabby either. Let's avoid a repeat of 1951, 2008 or 2008.

[Isotherm]

I could use a 1955-like summer aroiund here; 1999 wasn't too shabby either. Let's avoid a repeat of 1951, 2008 or 2008.

You must have really hated 2008.

[SACRUS]

MEI Value

Mar/Apr: .059

closest actuals

1960: ..019

1961: .018

1965: .104

1982: -.041

2007: -.049

1970: -.055

1978: .18

Closest trends:

2012 -1.046 -.702 -.41 .059

2001 -.54 -.713 -.603 -.145

2009 -.753 -.715 -.713 -.159

1986 -.307 -.195 .028 -.169

2008 -1.012 -1.398 -1.631 -.942

1965 -.525 -.323 -.25 .104

[JBG]

God help this board if we have a 1974-75 type winter,especially after the winter we just had.

We didn't have a 1974-5 type winter; it was far worse.

[SACRUS]

MEI Value

Apr/May: .706

closest actuals

1969: .706

1991: .719

1958: .743

2005: .758

1990: .595

1953: .840

Closest trends:

2012 -1.046 -.702 -.41 .059 .706

2000 -1.198 -1.242 -1.134 -.521 .161

1972 -.593 -.408 -.255 -.206 .487

2009 -.753 -.715 -.713 -.159 .37

1951 -1.068 -1.196 -1.209 -.437 -.275

2008 -1.012 -1.398 -1.631 -.942 -.353

[uncle W]

MEI Value

Apr/May: .706

closest actuals

1969: .706

1991: .719

1958: .743

2005: .758

1990: .595

1953: .840

Closest trends:

2012 -1.046 -.702 -.41 .059 .706

2000 -1.198 -1.242 -1.134 -.521 .161

1972 -.593 -.408 -.255 -.206 .487

2009 -.753 -.715 -.713 -.159 .37

1951 -1.068 -1.196 -1.209 -.437 -.275

2008 -1.012 -1.398 -1.631 -.942 -.353

I saw this today and was surprised how high a reading it was...That's El Nino territory...

[SACRUS]

I saw this today and was surprised how high a reading it was...That's El Nino territory...

yeah that was higher than i expected as well. I wonder if it slows a bit for may/june #.

[SACRUS]

MEI Value

May/Jun: .903

closest actuals

1958: .896

2009: .943

2002: .864

1982: .951

1980: .851

1965: .956

closest trends.

2012 -1.046 -.702 -.41 .059 .706 .903

2002 -.05 -.208 -.196 .339 .78 .864

2009 -.753 -.715 -.713 -.159 .37 .943

1965 -.525 -.323 -.25 .104 .535 .956

1976 -1.624 -1.396 -1.253 -1.191 -.481 .342

1951 -1.068 -1.196 -1.209 -.437 -.275 .464

[uncle W]

this months mei index is +1.139...Fifth highest of all the developing nino years for June/July...

[SACRUS]

MEI Value

Jun/Jul: 1.139

closest actuals

1993: 1.09

1991: 1.011

1992: .946

1957: .937

1965: 1.395

closest trends.

2012 -1.046 -.702 -.41 .059 .706 .903 1.139

2009 -.753 -.715 -.713 -.159 .37 .943 .938

1951 -1.068 -1.196 -1.209 -.437 -.275 .464 .739

1957 -.948 -.352 .152 .352 .908 .773 .937

1965 -.525 -.323 -.25 .104 .535 .956 1.395

1976 -1.624 -1.396 -1.253 -1.191 -.481 .342 .613

[SACRUS]

MEI Value

Jul/AUg: .579

closest actuals

1992: .536

1963: .628

1979: .642

1976: .660

2004: .669

1977: .703

closest trends.

2012 -1.046 -.702 -.41 .059 .706 .903 1.139 .579

2009 -.753 -.715 -.713 -.159 .37 .943 .938 .944

1951 -1.068 -1.196 -1.209 -.437 -.275 .464 .739 .853

1963 -.702 -.843 -.701 -.816 -.469 -.044 .438 .628

1976 -1.624 -1.396 -1.253 -1.191 -.481 .342 .613

2002 -.05 -.208 -.196 .339 .78 .864 .596 .922

[uncle W]

the drop in the mei index is the greatest on record for a developing el nino...Does it mean no el nino this year?...Who knows...TWT...

[SACRUS]

MEI Value

Aug/Sep: .271

closest actuals

1980: .279

2005: .255

1968: .279

1952: .362

1990: .376

closest trends.

2012 -1.046 -.702 -.41 .059 .706 .903 1.139 .579 .271

1968 -.595 -.706 -.618 -.973 -1.095 -.731 -.55 -.128 .235

1951 -1.068 -1.196 -1.209 -.437 -.275 .464 .739 .853 .774

2005 .301 .799 1.018 .559 .758 .499 .492 .321 .255

1980 .695 .592 .668 .872 .918 .851 .787 .34 .279 .205 .236 .118

1976 -1.624 -1.396 -1.253 -1.191 -.481 .342 .613 .66 1.027

[SACRUS]

A few weeks late...

MEI Value

Sep/Oct: .103

closest actuals;

1953: .093

1980: .089

1984: .016

1980: .206

1957: .208

1990: .241

closest trends.

2012 -1.046 -.702 -.41 .059 .706 .903 1.139 .579 .271 .103

1968 -.595 -.706 -.618 -.973 -1.095 -.731 -.55 -.128 .235 .424

1980 .695 .592 .668 .872 .918 .851 .787 .34 .279 .206

1983 2.688 2.903 3.037 2.876 2.556 2.174 1.741 1.13 .428 .002

1953 .024 .38 .267 .712 .84 .246 .416 .253 .521 .093

1958 1.473 1.448 1.315 1.025 .743 .896 .708 .433 .176 .208

1951 -1.068 -1.196 -1.209 -.437 -.275 .464 .739 .853 .774 .751

[SACRUS]

Late but wanted to keep updated .  the new values should be in next week

 

 

Mei analogs (acutal value)

 

Oct/Nov :   .166

 

1978: .198

1980: .236

1953: .048

1966: .025

1985: -.05

 

closest trends;

 

2012 -1.046 -.702 -.41 .059 .706 .903 1.139 .579 .271 .103 .166
 

 

1980 .695 .592 .668 .872 .918 .851 .787 .34 .279 .206 .236

1953 .024 .38 .267 .712 .84 .246 .416 .253 .521 .093 .048

1976 -1.624 -1.396 -1.253 -1.191 -.481 .342 .613 .66 1.027 .952 .482

 

2001 -.54 -.713 -.603 -.145 .188 -.056 .253 .367 -.126 -.276 -.18 .003

1966 1.31 1.193 .697 .556 -.135 -.128 -.149 .164 -.088 -.014 .025

[SACRUS]

Mei analogs (acutal value)

 

Nov/Dec :   .037

 

2001:  .003

1980:  .118

1989:  .142

1952:  -.126

1981: -.153

 

 

closest trends;

 

 

2012	-1.046	-.702	-.41	.059	.706	.903	1.139	.579	.271	.103	.166	.037

 

1989 -1.167 -1.308 -1.056 -.842 -.487 -.266 -.454 -.501 -.28 -.318 -.066 .142 2001 -.54 -.713 -.603 -.145 .188 -.056 .253 .367 -.126 -.276 -.18 .003 1981 -.245 -.164 .443 .637 .12 -.018 -.034 -.073 .184 .089 -.054 -.1531980 .695 .592 .668 .872 .918 .851 .787 .34 .279 .206 .236 .118 1952 .406 .133 .088 .262 -.267 -.638 -.245 -.16 .362 .31 -.34 -.126

[SACRUS]

It'll be interesting to see how things evolve but those looking well beyond into the warm season.  These analogs are a who's who of some torches.

 

2002, 1990, 1953.

[uncle W]

It'll be interesting to see how things evolve but those looking well beyond into the warm season.  These analogs are a who's who of some torches.

 

2002, 1990, 1953.

1953 has been on the radar for a while but that winter was over by now...February was mild and March had very little snow...This year could be different...1892 was another similar year and had a big snowfall in mid March...

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

1953 has been on the radar for a while but that winter was over by now...February was mild and March had very little snow...This year could be different...1892 was another similar year and had a big snowfall in mid March...

 

1892 had 12" of Snowfall in Central Park in March.

[SACRUS]

94/95 has been a decent analog for this winter.  Like then, I think we'll have our 'one' significant storm in the early feb timeframe.

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

94/95 has been a decent analog for this winter.  Like then, I think we'll have our 'one' significant storm in the early feb timeframe.

 

I guess this means that there could finally be ONE solid KU event.

 

BTW, there was 11.6" of snow for February 1995 at Central Park.

 

That one KU event that brought 6-24" of snow from Western NC to Maine at February 3rd-4th, 1995.

[uncle W]

1892 had 12" of Snowfall in Central Park in March.

2" on the 16th and 17th and 8" on the 18th...I'm bullish on March this year...

[SACRUS]

Mei analogs

 

Acutal value:  Dec /Jan: .042

 

 

1953:  .024

2002:  -.05

1954: -.051

1990: .234

1961: -.152

 

 

Closest trends;

 

2012  .579 .271 .103 .166 .037
2013 .042

 

2001  .367 -.126 -.276 -.18 .003
2002 -.05

 

1952  -.16 .362 .31 -.34 -.126
1953 .024

 

1989  -.501 -.28 -.318 -.066 .142
1990 .234

[Kaner587]

2" on the 16th and 17th and 8" on the 18th...I'm bullish on March this year...

I actually agree I think march could be very snowy and relatively cold.