Kaner587 Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 On 1/27/2013 at 8:17 PM, IntenseBlizzard2013 said: I guess this means that there could finally be ONE solid KU event. BTW, there was 11.6" of snow for February 1995 at Central Park. That one KU event that brought 6-24" of snow from Western NC to Maine at February 3rd-4th, 1995. wow pretty close lol 11.4 this time. Although this storm wasn't as wide ranging (ie NC to Maine) it was much more intense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted March 9, 2013 Author Share Posted March 9, 2013 Mei analogs Actual value: Jan/Feb -.163 Closest analogs: 1981: -.162 1982: -.146 2002: -.210 1960: -.262 1954: -.018 Closest trends; YEAR DECJAN JANFEB F 2013 .042 -.163 2002 -.05 -.211954 -.051 -.0181981 -.245 -.1621952 .406 .131 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted April 21, 2013 Author Share Posted April 21, 2013 Mei analogs Actual value: Feb/Mar: -.171 Closest analogs: 2002: -.201 2004: -.125 1961: --.082 1965: -.249 1972: -.253 1997: -.254 1996: -.264 Closest trends (last 12 mos) 2013 .042 -.163 -.171 2002 -.05 -.21 -.201 1961 -.152 -.267 -.082 1982 -.282 -.146 .086 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted April 21, 2013 Author Share Posted April 21, 2013 Latest sst anomalies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted April 21, 2013 Share Posted April 21, 2013 On 4/21/2013 at 6:03 PM, SACRUS said: Latest sst anomalies Doesn't look terribly warm in the Nino regions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 11, 2013 Author Share Posted May 11, 2013 Mei analogs Actual value: MAr/Apr .009 Closest analogs:1961: .018 1960: .0192012: .0581982: -.041 1965: .104 Closest trends (last 12 mos) 2013 .042 -.163 -.171 .009 2002 -.05 -.21 -.201 .3392009 -.752 -.719 -.719 -.1591961 -.152 -.267 -.082 .018 1982 -.282 -.146 .086 -.041 1965 -.525 -.323 -.249 .104 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 11, 2013 Author Share Posted May 11, 2013 latest sst anomalies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 15, 2013 Author Share Posted June 15, 2013 Mei analogs Actual value Apr/May: .069 Closest analogs: 1988: .085 2003: .048 1959: .017 1984: .121 2006: -.036 Closest trends 2013 .042 -.163 -.171 .009 .069 2001 -.539 -.717 -.607 -.146 .185 1961 -.152 -.267 -.082 .018 -.284 1959 .574 .804 .502 .217 .017 1984 -.339 -.565 .131 .331 .121 1996 -.644 -.595 -.264 -.505 -.178 2003 1.184 .927 .819 .308 .048 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 15, 2013 Author Share Posted June 15, 2013 latest sst anomaly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 7, 2013 Author Share Posted July 7, 2013 Mei analogs Actual value May/Jun: -.298 Closest actual: 1989: -.273 1960: -.237 1967: -.362 1984: -.142 2007: -.358 1966: -.149 Closest trends 2013 .042 -.163 -.171 .009 .069 -.298 2001 -.539 -.717 -.607 -.146 .185 -.076 1961 -.152 -.267 -.082 .018 -.284 -.069 1984 -.339 -.565 .131 .331 .121 -.142 -.138 1996 -.644 -.595 -.264 -.505 -.178 -.001 1960 -.311 -.262 -.08 .019 -.325 -.237 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 15, 2013 Author Share Posted August 15, 2013 Actual value Jun/Jul: -.469 Closest actual: 1999: -.474 1989: -.457 1978: -.401 1968: -.549 1960: -.358 Closest trends; 2013 .042 -.163 -.171 .009 .069 -.298 -.469 1960 -.311 -.262 -.08 .019 -.325 -.237 -.358 1961 -.152 -.267 -.082 .018 -.284 -.069 -.153 1984 -.339 -.565 .131 .331 .121 -.142 -.149 1996 -.644 -.595 -.264 -.505 -.178 -.001 -.219 1985 -.561 -.602 -.737 -.484 -.731 -.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bkviking Posted August 17, 2013 Share Posted August 17, 2013 On 8/15/2013 at 8:57 PM, SACRUS said: Actual value Jun/Jul: -.469 Closest actual: 1999: -.474 1989: -.457 1978: -.401 1968: -.549 1960: -.358 Closest trends; 2013 .042 -.163 -.171 .009 .069 -.298 -.469 1960 -.311 -.262 -.08 .019 -.325 -.237 -.358 1961 -.152 -.267 -.082 .018 -.284 -.069 -.153 1984 -.339 -.565 .131 .331 .121 -.142 -.149 1996 -.644 -.595 -.264 -.505 -.178 -.001 -.219 1985 -.561 -.602 -.737 -.484 -.731 -.0 SACRUS: Could you explain in short what the MEI measurements mean? I think i can deduce from your comparisons trends towards analogous years, but I'd like to know what it measures. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted August 17, 2013 Share Posted August 17, 2013 On 8/17/2013 at 4:14 PM, bkviking said: SACRUS: Could you explain in short what the MEI measurements mean? I think i can deduce from your comparisons trends towards analogous years, but I'd like to know what it measures. Thanks. this will explain it... http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/mei.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bkviking Posted August 17, 2013 Share Posted August 17, 2013 On 8/17/2013 at 5:00 PM, uncle W said: this will explain it... http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/mei.html Thanks Uncle, that did it. I suspected en ENSO component and it actually delves pretty deep into that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 17, 2013 Author Share Posted August 17, 2013 On 8/17/2013 at 5:04 PM, bkviking said: Thanks Uncle, that did it. I suspected en ENSO component and it actually delves pretty deep into that. BK its an index that measures several ENSO values. Best explained http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bkviking Posted August 18, 2013 Share Posted August 18, 2013 On 8/17/2013 at 9:33 PM, SACRUS said: BK its an index that measures several ENSO values. Best explained http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/ Thank you. I know you have posted this index going back years now and inferred it was analog based, but never knew based upon what. Don't notice memorable winters in those trends, but 3 NE tropical cyclone hits I believe are in there (60, 85, and 96). But I presume ENSO trends are far more correlative to winter outcomes on weather than tropical ones. I suspect Uncle has already worked out at some time ENSO matchups with tri-state tropical impacts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 7, 2013 Author Share Posted September 7, 2013 Actual value Jul/Aug: -.614 Closest actual: 1974: -.622 1962: -.554 1999: -.796 1989: -.497 2011: -.491 2007: -.464 Closest trends; 2013 .042 -.163 -.171 .009 .069 -.298 -.469 -.614 1961 -.152 -.267 -.082 .018 -.284 -.069 -.153 -.234 1984 -.339 -.565 .131 .331 .121 -.142 -.149 -.184 1960 -.311 -.262 -.08 .019 -.325 -.237 -.358 -.251 1952 .406 .131 .086 .262 -.267 -.634 -.231 -.156 1981 -.245 -.162 .443 .637 .119 -.023 -.039 -.077 2007 .974 .51 .074 -.049 .183 -.358 -.322 -.464 1967 -.473 -.939 -1.079 -1.067 -.478 -.362 -.641 -.427 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 7, 2013 Author Share Posted September 7, 2013 latest sst Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 24, 2013 Author Share Posted October 24, 2013 Actual value Aug/Sep: -.19 Closest actual: 2000: -.247 1961: -.263 1989: -.279 2001: -.127 1984: -.084 Closest trends; 2013 .042 -.163 -.171 .009 .069 -.298 -.469 -.614 -.19 1961 -.152 -.267 -.082 .018 -.284 -.069 -.153 -.234 -.263 1960 -.311 -.262 -.08 .019 -.325 -.237 -.358 -.251 -.474 2001 -.539 -.717 -.607 -.146 .185 -.076 .236 .366 -.127 2000 -1.197 -1.246 -1.138 -.521 .157 -.15 -.211 -.149 -.247 1984 -.339 -.565 .131 .331 .121 -.142 -.149 -.184 -.084 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted November 23, 2013 Author Share Posted November 23, 2013 Actual value Sep/Oct: .094 Closest actual: 1953: .092 1981: .089 2012: .105 1984: .016 1983: .002 1980: .206 Closest trends; 2013 .042 -.163 -.171 .009 .069 -.298 -.469 -.614 -.19 .094 2001 -.539 -.717 -.607 -.146 .185 -.076 .236 .366 -.127 -.275 1981 -.245 -.162 .443 .637 .119 -.023 -.039 -.077 .181 .089 1984 -.339 -.565 .131 .331 .121 -.142 -.149 -.184 -.084 .016 1966 1.311 1.191 .697 .556 -.133 -.123 -.149 .166 -.087 -.014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 22, 2013 Author Share Posted December 22, 2013 Actual value Oct/Nov: -.093 Closest actual: 1989: -.067 1981: -.055 1985: -.051 1996: -.163 1966: .026 1953: .049 Closest trends; 2013 .042 -.163 -.171 .009 .069 -.298 -.469 -.614 -.19 .094 -.093 1953 .024 .379 .263 .712 .84 .241 .416 .253 .524 .092 .049 1981 -.245 -.162 .443 .637 .119 -.023 -.039 -.077 .181 .089 -.055 2001 -.539 -.717 -.607 -.146 .185 -.076 .236 .366 -.127 -.275 -.181 1985 -.561 -.602 -.737 -.484 -.731 -.086 -.149 -.398 -.542 -.141 -.051 1989 -1.166 -1.312 -1.056 -.842 -.488 -.273 -.457 -.497 -.279 -.317 -.067 1966 1.311 1.191 .697 .556 -.133 -.123 -.149 .166 -.087 -.014 .026 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 23, 2013 Author Share Posted December 23, 2013 Latest SST Anomaly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 On 12/22/2013 at 4:58 PM, SACRUS said: Actual value Oct/Nov: -.093 Closest actual: 1989: -.067 1981: -.055 1985: -.051 1996: -.163 1966: .026 1953: .049 Closest trends; 2013 .042 -.163 -.171 .009 .069 -.298 -.469 -.614 -.19 .094 -.093 1953 .024 .379 .263 .712 .84 .241 .416 .253 .524 .092 .049 1981 -.245 -.162 .443 .637 .119 -.023 -.039 -.077 .181 .089 -.055 2001 -.539 -.717 -.607 -.146 .185 -.076 .236 .366 -.127 -.275 -.181 1985 -.561 -.602 -.737 -.484 -.731 -.086 -.149 -.398 -.542 -.141 -.051 1989 -1.166 -1.312 -1.056 -.842 -.488 -.273 -.457 -.497 -.279 -.317 -.067 1966 1.311 1.191 .697 .556 -.133 -.123 -.149 .166 -.087 -.014 .026 not a lot of winners on that list, except 66-67 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 26, 2014 Author Share Posted January 26, 2014 Actual value Nov/Dec: -.312 Closest actual: 1996: -.341 1967: -.366 1959: -.265 1960: -.432 1962: -.476 Closest trends; 2013 .042 -.163 -.171 .009 .069 -.298 -.469 -.614 -.19 .094 -.093 -.312 1953 .024 .379 .263 .712 .84 .241 .416 .253 .524 .092 .049 .3141966 1.311 1.191 .697 .556 -.133 -.123 -.149 .166 -.087 -.014 .026 -.182 1981 -.245 -.162 .443 .637 .119 -.023 -.039 -.077 .181 .089 -.055 -.153 2001 -.539 -.717 -.607 -.146 .185 -.076 .236 .366 -.127 -.275 -.181 -.0011985 -.561 -.602 -.737 -.484 -.731 -.086 -.149 -.398 -.542 -.141 -.051 -.293 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 17, 2014 Author Share Posted February 17, 2014 Actual value Dec/Jan: -.318 Closest actual: 1960: -.311 1986: -.309 1984: -.340 1982:-.284 1981: -.248 Closest trends based on prior 6 mos; 2014 -.318 1982 -.284 2002 -.053 1961 -.151 1968 -.594 1954 -.049 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted March 21, 2014 Author Share Posted March 21, 2014 MEI Value Jan/Feb: -.269Closest actuals: 1961: -.2671960: -.260 2002: -.213 1986: -.194 1957: -.350 Closest trends based on prior 6 mos; 2014 -.345 -.269 2002 -.079 -.213 1986 -.335 -.194 1961 -.177 -.267 1981 -.274 -.165 2013 .013 -.165 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted April 14, 2014 Author Share Posted April 14, 2014 MEI Value Feb/Mar: -.017Closest actuals: 1979: -.011 1960: -.08 1961: -.082 1986: .033 2007: .074 1952: .086 Closest trends based on prior 6 mos; 2014 -.318 -.269 -.017 1960 -.311 -.26 -.08 1986 -.309 -.194 .033 2002 -.053 -.213 -.201 2012 -1.049 -.705 -.417 1982 -.284 -.15 .086 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 9, 2014 Author Share Posted May 9, 2014 MEI Value Mar/Apr: .152Closest actuals: 1978: .181 1965: .102 1959: .218 2004: .221 2012: .061 Closest trends based on prior 6 mos; 2014 -.318 -.269 -.017 .152 2002 -.053 -.213 -.201 .342 1960 -.311 -.26 -.08 .017 1986 -.309 -.194 .033 -.166 1982 -.284 -.15 .086 -.038 2009 -.755 -.72 -.719 -.157 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 8, 2014 Author Share Posted June 8, 2014 MEI Value Apr/May: .932Closest actuals: 1980: .922 1957: .901 1953: .830 2002: .801 1997: 1.121 Closest trends based on prior 6 mos; 2014 -.318 -.269 -.017 .152 .932 2002 -.053 -.213 -.201 .342 .801 1982 -.284 -.15 .086 -.038 .407 1986 -.309 -.194 .033 -.166 .322 2009 -.755 -.72 -.719 -.157 .375 1997 -.491 -.611 -.254 .497 1.121 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 8, 2014 Author Share Posted June 8, 2014 Quote Updates SST maps http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2014/anomnight.6.5.2014.gif http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/GlobalMaps/view.php?d1=AMSRE_SSTAn_M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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