SACRUS Posted May 10, 2011 Share Posted May 10, 2011 MEI Value mar/Apr: -1.495 closest actuals 1955: -1.556 1974: -1.684 1976 : -1.192 1956: -1.157 1967: -1.067 1999 : -1.026 Cloest trends 2011 -1.654 -1.552 -1.548 -1.495 1976 -1.614 -1.394 -1.251 -1.192 2008 -.984 -1.389 -1.619 -.945 1956 -1.445 -1.306 -1.399 -1.157 1999 -1.109 -1.219 -1.043 -1.026 1950 -1.046 -1.148 -1.287 -1.058 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAT5ANDREW Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 God help this board if we have a 1974-75 type winter,especially after the winter we just had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 God help this board if we have a 1974-75 type winter,especially after the winter we just had. we have been spoiled the last two years...2007-08 seems so long ago lol...I hope we get the 'Hat trick'... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 17, 2011 Author Share Posted June 17, 2011 Apr/May value : -.368 Closest actual: 1978 : -.383 2008 : -.39 1960: -.324 1961 : -.29 1951 : -.264 closest trends: 2011 -1.654 -1.552 -1.548 -1.495 -.368 1976 -1.614 -1.394 -1.251 -1.192 -.498 1951 -1.069 -1.194 -1.216 -.434 -.264 2008 -.984 -1.389 -1.619 -.945 -.39 1999 -1.109 -1.219 -1.043 -1.026 -.727 1989 -1.144 -1.297 -1.051 -.844 -.501 2000 -1.172 -1.228 -1.117 -.525 .118 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted June 17, 2011 Share Posted June 17, 2011 2008-09 is looking like an interesting analog for Winter 2011-12. Most models and common sense say we'll be in a slightly cold ENSO state, though probably not as cold as that year, but close enough. Similar PDO configuration, blocking patterns present, warm AMO, following a stronger La Niña. I already see a lot in common. Although it wasn't a blockbuster, I'd happily take a repeat of 08-09 here in Westchester. I know the latitude gradient was sharp and other areas in NYC metro didn't do quite as well, but Dobbs Ferry had 45" snowfall, almost 120% of normal. The big storms were 10" on 3/2 (which I missed) and 8" on 12/19 (a nice snowfall to come home to from college, first big storm in a drought period). Nothing to rival this year, but those are solid storms for any winter. January was frigid, 4.2F below average at Central Park, with 16/9 on January 16th and 22/6 the following day. We reached -20F where I was in Vermont at college and had a beautiful snowpack in the Green Mountains, absolutely a great month for winter hiking, skiing, and photography. Late January and early February also had another cold spell...I came home to lows in the mid single digits after dealing with the brutal weather in Vermont. We didn't have the massive coastals or snowpack of a great winter like 10-11, but it was a solid cold season. The lowest high temperature in Dobbs Ferry this year was 19F, relatively weak; January 2009 had one day with a high of only 14F, and I need that arctic cold to consider a winter top echelon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted June 17, 2011 Share Posted June 17, 2011 We're in cold phase with blocking; anything can happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 13, 2011 Author Share Posted July 13, 2011 May/Jun: -.225 closest actuals 1960: -.243 1989: -.278 2000: -.162 1984: -.152 1985: -.103 2001: -.082 closest trends: YEAR DECJAN JANFEB FEBMAR MARAPR APRMAY MAYJUN 2011 -1.654 -1.552 -1.548 -1.495 -.368 -.225 1976 -1.614 -1.394 -1.251 -1.192 -.498 .32 1999 -1.109 -1.219 -1.043 -1.026 -.727 -.449 2008 -.984 -1.389 -1.619 -.945 -.39 .102 1989 -1.144 -1.297 -1.051 -.844 -.501 -.278 2000 -1.172 -1.228 -1.117 -.525 .118 -.162 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 2008-09 is looking like an interesting analog for Winter 2011-12. Most models and common sense say we'll be in a slightly cold ENSO state, though probably not as cold as that year, but close enough. Similar PDO configuration, blocking patterns present, warm AMO, following a stronger La Niña. I already see a lot in common. Although it wasn't a blockbuster, I'd happily take a repeat of 08-09 here in Westchester. I know the latitude gradient was sharp and other areas in NYC metro didn't do quite as well, but Dobbs Ferry had 45" snowfall, almost 120% of normal. The big storms were 10" on 3/2 (which I missed) and 8" on 12/19 (a nice snowfall to come home to from college, first big storm in a drought period). Nothing to rival this year, but those are solid storms for any winter. January was frigid, 4.2F below average at Central Park, with 16/9 on January 16th and 22/6 the following day. We reached -20F where I was in Vermont at college and had a beautiful snowpack in the Green Mountains, absolutely a great month for winter hiking, skiing, and photography. Late January and early February also had another cold spell...I came home to lows in the mid single digits after dealing with the brutal weather in Vermont. We didn't have the massive coastals or snowpack of a great winter like 10-11, but it was a solid cold season. The lowest high temperature in Dobbs Ferry this year was 19F, relatively weak; January 2009 had one day with a high of only 14F, and I need that arctic cold to consider a winter top echelon. Do you think the nao will be similar to that year or more +/-? Warm AMO correlates to -NAO a weak la nina would be better than neutral for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 May/Jun: -.225 closest actuals 1960: -.243 1989: -.278 2000: -.162 1984: -.152 1985: -.103 2001: -.082 closest trends: YEAR DECJAN JANFEB FEBMAR MARAPR APRMAY MAYJUN 2011 -1.654 -1.552 -1.548 -1.495 -.368 -.225 1976 -1.614 -1.394 -1.251 -1.192 -.498 .32 1999 -1.109 -1.219 -1.043 -1.026 -.727 -.449 2008 -.984 -1.389 -1.619 -.945 -.39 .102 1989 -1.144 -1.297 -1.051 -.844 -.501 -.278 2000 -1.172 -1.228 -1.117 -.525 .118 -.162 Wow, a wide variety of winters in those lists. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 Wow, a wide variety of winters in those lists. Again we're sort of seeing the milder winters in that list (1989 and 2001) being near the solar maximum....1984 and 1985 were not snowy but they were also not warm....minus the insanity that was the 2 week period in December 1984. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 Again we're sort of seeing the milder winters in that list (1989 and 2001) being near the solar maximum....1984 and 1985 were not snowy but they were also not warm....minus the insanity that was the 2 week period in December 1984. SG do you think closest actuals is better or closest trends? Im thinking trends..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 With the actuals, three of them are bunched up in the 80s, with two in the 00s and one lone ranger in 1960-- a very good lead in though lol. The trends are more mixed.... shocked that 1976 is in there, I guess that would have been a possibility if we were going into a weak nino lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 The trends are more mixed.... shocked that 1976 is in there, I guess that would have been a possibility if we were going into a weak nino lol. It's highly unlikely now that we'll see any sort of El Niño...the Pacific has been cooling steadily, especially in the Western ENSO regions. Current SSTs: Last week's SSTs: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 Do you think a weak la nina is more likely than neutral, Nate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 Do you think a weak la nina is more likely than neutral, Nate? Slightly, yes. I think a moderate La Niña is not out of the question either, but unlikely. Models are really intensifying the trade winds in the coming days (blue), especially in the western ENSO regions that have been cooling quickly in recent times: Also, the subsurface is cooling rapidly, with -3C anomalies showing up between 140-150W at 100m depth: SOI has also started to spike again, indicating a Niña-like pressure pattern in the Pacific. Here are the last three days... July 11: +12.68 July 12: +16.19 July 13: +17.85 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 2008-09 is the new 93-94 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 Slightly, yes. I think a moderate La Niña is not out of the question either, but unlikely. Models are really intensifying the trade winds in the coming days (blue), especially in the western ENSO regions that have been cooling quickly in recent times: Also, the subsurface is cooling rapidly, with -3C anomalies showing up between 140-150W at 100m depth: SOI has also started to spike again, indicating a Niña-like pressure pattern in the Pacific. Here are the last three days... July 11: +12.68 July 12: +16.19 July 13: +17.85 Pretty much on the same page. I think a weak nina is likely, and would not be surprised to see low end moderate. Warmest I can see right now is cold neutral (-0.3/-0.4c) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 9, 2011 Author Share Posted August 9, 2011 MEI Value Jun/Jul: -.147 closest actuals 1985: -.150 1961: -.152 1984: -.152 1959: -.179 2000: -.219 Cloest trends 2011 -1.654 -1.552 -1.548 -1.495 -.368 -.225 -.147 2008 -.984 -1.389 -1.619 -.945 -.39 .102 -.047 1961 -.161 -.261 -.076 .018 -.29 -.084 -.152 1989 -1.144 -1.297 -1.051 -.844 -.501 -.278 -.468 1984 -.335 -.549 .141 .329 .093 -.152 -.152 2000 -1.172 -1.228 -1.117 -.525 .118 -.162 -.219 1999 -1.109 -1.219 -1.043 -1.026 -.727 -.449 -.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 9, 2011 Share Posted August 9, 2011 Ugh, none of those winters were really good-- 2008-09 was ok 2000-01 was better and could have been great if March 01 had panned out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted August 9, 2011 Share Posted August 9, 2011 Ugh, none of those winters were really good-- 2008-09 was ok 2000-01 was better and could have been great if March 01 had panned out. Its hard to use 84 and 85 negatively. Those winters were not necessarily warm outside of December 1984 but they of course occurred during the 80s snow drought. Its hard to say if we duplicated the temperatures from 84-85 and 85-86 today if we would not have a much snowier winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 9, 2011 Share Posted August 9, 2011 Its hard to use 84 and 85 negatively. Those winters were not necessarily warm outside of December 1984 but they of course occurred during the 80s snow drought. Its hard to say if we duplicated the temperatures from 84-85 and 85-86 today if we would not have a much snowier winter. Especially with a neg NAO! Reagan's inauguration in Jan 1985 was the coldest day I have personally ever witnessed here. Did you read the main forum thread about this being the longest -NAO streak ever and this being a really good sign for next winter? I could honestly see next winter being even more consistently negative NAO than either of the past two! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted August 9, 2011 Share Posted August 9, 2011 Again we're sort of seeing the milder winters in that list (1989 and 2001) being near the solar maximum....1984 and 1985 were not snowy but they were also not warm....minus the insanity that was the 2 week period in December 1984. 1983-84 had the warmest February on record and one of the coldest March's in 100 years...Christmas 1983 had record cold and it continued cold in January...March 28th 1984 missed a major snowstorm by one or two degrees... 1984-85 had the warmest December and latest 70 degree temp. on record and the warmest temperature ever for February...January into early February 1985 was cold with a 6" snowfall in early Feb... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 9, 2011 Author Share Posted September 9, 2011 MEI Value Jul/Aug: -.502 closest actuals 1989: -.505 1962: -.556 1998: -.431 1967: -.429 1996: -.401 Closest trending 2011 -1.654 -1.552 -1.548 -1.495 -.368 -.225 -.147 -.503 2008 -.984 -1.389 -1.619 -.945 -.39 .102 -.047 -.286 1989 -1.144 -1.297 -1.051 -.844 -.501 -.278 -.468 -.505 1962 -1.081 -.993 -.72 -1.023 -.931 -.857 -.718 -.556 2000 -1.172 -1.228 -1.117 -.525 .118 -.162 -.219 -.146 1974 -1.937 -1.797 -1.769 -1.684 -1.09 -.658 -.74 -.628 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 8, 2011 Share Posted October 8, 2011 Aug/Sept mei number came in a -0.772... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 8, 2011 Author Share Posted October 8, 2011 MEI Value Aug/Sep: -.772 closest actuals 2008: -.653 1967: -.632 1974: -.610 1950: -.576 1985: -.544 Closest trends: 2011 -1.654 -1.552 -1.548 -1.495 -.368 -.225 -.147 -.503 -.772 2008 -.984 -1.389 -1.619 -.945 -.39 .102 -.047 -.286 -.653 1967 -.469 -.936 -1.079 -1.067 -.479 -.364 -.654 -.429 -.632 1950 -1.046 -1.148 -1.287 -1.058 -1.423 -1.363 -1.342 -1.066 -.576 1989 -1.144 -1.297 -1.051 -.844 -.501 -.278 -.468 -.505 -.281 1974 -1.937 -1.797 -1.769 -1.684 -1.09 -.658 -.74 -.628 -.61 1985 -.559 -.597 -.722 -.486 -.743 -.103 -.15 -.395 -.544 1999 -1.109 -1.219 -1.043 -1.026 -.727 -.449 -.5 -.802 -1.009 1996 -.641 -.597 -.267 -.506 -.201 .006 -.221 -.401 -.499 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 the mei is the 13th lowest for Aug/Sept since 1950...last year had the lowest reading for this period... http://www.esrl.noaa...o/mei/rank.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 the mei is the 13th lowest for Aug/Sept since 1950...last year had the lowest reading for this period... http://www.esrl.noaa...o/mei/rank.html 99' jumps right out at me 2nd year NINA 99/00 too edit: qbo is all wrong, however Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 99' jumps right out at me 2nd year NINA 99/00 too edit: qbo is all wrong, however 1999-00 had the February that didn't rock...there was no measurable snow until mid January...March was warm...the late January KU storm only had 6" here...It was terrible most of the time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted November 5, 2011 Author Share Posted November 5, 2011 MEI Value Sep/Oct : -.968 Closest actuals; 1999: -1.065 1974: -1.049 1970: -1.102 2007: -1.144 1998: -1.153 2008: -.783 Closest trends: 2011 -1.654 -1.552 -1.548 -1.495 -.368 -.225 -.147 -.503 -.772 -.968 2008 -.984 -1.389 -1.619 -.945 -.39 .102 -.047 -.286 -.653 -.783 2000 -1.172 -1.228 -1.117 -.525 .118 -.162 -.219 -.146 -.249 -.382 1974 -1.937 -1.797 -1.769 -1.684 -1.09 -.658 -.74 -.628 -.61 -1.049 1989 -1.144 -1.297 -1.051 -.844 -.501 -.278 -.468 -.505 -.281 -.318 1962 -1.081 -.993 -.72 -1.023 -.931 -.857 -.718 -.556 -.55 -.655 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 5, 2011 Share Posted November 5, 2011 MEI Value Sep/Oct : -.968 Closest actuals; 1974: -1.049 1970: -1.102 2007: -1.144 2008: -.783 1962: -.655 Closest trends: 2011 -1.654 -1.552 -1.548 -1.495 -.368 -.225 -.147 -.503 -.772 -.968 2008 -.984 -1.389 -1.619 -.945 -.39 .102 -.047 -.286 -.653 -.783 2000 -1.172 -1.228 -1.117 -.525 .118 -.162 -.219 -.146 -.249 -.382 1974 -1.937 -1.797 -1.769 -1.684 -1.09 -.658 -.74 -.628 -.61 -1.049 1989 -1.144 -1.297 -1.051 -.844 -.501 -.278 -.468 -.505 -.281 -.318 1962 -1.081 -.993 -.72 -1.023 -.931 -.857 -.718 -.556 -.55 -.655 that value is the 14th lowest for these months since 1950...it fits in between 1998 and 1999... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.