meteorologist Posted May 5, 2011 Share Posted May 5, 2011 http://www.ofcm.gov/ihc11/linking_file_ihc11.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted May 5, 2011 Share Posted May 5, 2011 Just going through some of these talks. I'm going to post thoughts here as I come across them. Looks like HWRF might not be useless anymore thanks to the improvements in the GFS. http://www.ofcm.gov/ihc11/Presentations/Session05/s05-03kwon.pptx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted May 5, 2011 Share Posted May 5, 2011 Just going through some of these talks. I'm going to post thoughts here as I come across them. Looks like HWRF might not be useless anymore thanks to the improvements in the GFS. http://www.ofcm.gov/ihc11/Presentations/Session05/s05-03kwon.pptx But GFDL will be even better. http://www.ofcm.gov/ihc11/Presentations/Session05/s05-04Bender.session5.4.ihc.ppt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted May 5, 2011 Share Posted May 5, 2011 As they are in other facets of tropical met, the GFS and ECMWF do the best job forecasting genesis 36 hrs in advance. http://www.ofcm.gov/ihc11/Presentations/Session06/s06-06tcgenIHC65.mike.fiorino.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted May 5, 2011 Share Posted May 5, 2011 Validation of all of the cool spaghetti charts we looked at last summer. Hopefully to become real time operational in 2011. http://www.ofcm.gov/ihc11/Presentations/Session06/s06-07majumdar.pptx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted May 5, 2011 Share Posted May 5, 2011 Finer resolution doesn't fix everything, but it might help http://www.ofcm.gov/ihc11/Presentations/Session07/s07-04sam_march2_ihc65.ppt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted May 5, 2011 Share Posted May 5, 2011 Just c/p'ing this, because it's important into understanding how genesis occurs (in the Atlantic), but go through the whole ppt. H1: Wave breaking or roll-up of cyclonic vorticity near the critical surface in the lower troposphere (>600 hPa) provides favorable environment and focal point for aggregation of convectively-generated cyclonic vorticity anomalies.H2: The wave critical layer is a region of closed circulation, where air is repeatedly moistened by deep convection and also protected from dry air entrainment to some extent. H3: The parent wave is maintained and possibly enhanced by diabatically amplified mesoscale vortices within the wave. (Heating is most effective when intrinsic frequency --> 0.) The “baby” proto-vortex is carried along in the “pouch” (CL cat’s eye) by the “mother” wave until it is strengthened into an independent and self-sustaining vortex. http://www.ofcm.gov/ihc11/Presentations/Session08/s08-05IHC_PREDICT_talk_public.ppt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 5, 2011 Share Posted May 5, 2011 No surprises here: http://www.ofcm.gov/ihc11/Presentations/Session06/s06-06tcgenIHC65.mike.fiorino.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted May 5, 2011 Share Posted May 5, 2011 I hope HiRAD becomes operational in real time (basically a wide scan SFMR). That thing looks like the bomb diggity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted May 5, 2011 Share Posted May 5, 2011 Stat-dynamical model shows skill at forecasting TC genesis 90 days out. This will be fantastic if it we can get it operationally, even with a high FAR. Statistical-dynamical system with extensive ensembling provides long range forecast (LRF) products for which there are few or no alternatives: Daily, 2.5 degree resolution Skill at leads of 4 to 90 days Consistent, reliable On-going and planned R&D Upgrade system using CFSR and CFSv2 Extend verification (e.g., consistency, reliability, BSS, false alarms compared to invests/TCFAs/OLRA) Increase leads to 6 months. Increase ensembling at all leads. Continue / extend system to: North Atlantic and other basins Track and intensity Extend climate variation assessments (e.g., ENLN, MJO, IOD) Consider alternate dynamical model for short-medium leads http://www.ofcm.gov/ihc11/Presentations/Session10/s10-07murphreeV2.pptx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted May 5, 2011 Share Posted May 5, 2011 Lots of stuff on RI and statistical intensity prediction http://www.ofcm.gov/ihc11/Presentations/Session11/s11-02-dunion_ihc2011.pptx http://www.ofcm.gov/ihc11/Presentations/Session11/s11-03-knaff_ihc2011_statistical_intensity.pptx http://www.ofcm.gov/ihc11/Presentations/Session11/s11-04rozoff.ppt http://www.ofcm.gov/ihc11/Presentations/Session11/s11-05jiang.ppt http://www.ofcm.gov/ihc11/Presentations/Session12/s12-02Kaplan_IHC11_new.ppt Main takeaways are that we are likely to see ET and rapid weakening parameters in SHIPS in 2012, using the MW ring helps forecast RI, and that upshear TPW can help forecasting intensity changes (both positive and negative). As usual, intensity forecasting is a mix of internal and external factors and is a big reason why it is such a challenge (vs. track forecasting which is mainly due to external factors) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted May 5, 2011 Share Posted May 5, 2011 NHC is adding in GPCE (variance of the deterministic model tracks) as a predictor for the wind probabilities, which should cut down on FAR in well modeled storms (see: Earl 2010). http://www.ofcm.gov/ihc11/Presentations/Session12/s12-04demaria_IHC_mar2011.pptx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 5, 2011 Share Posted May 5, 2011 Just going through some of these talks. I'm going to post thoughts here as I come across them. Looks like HWRF might not be useless anymore thanks to the improvements in the GFS. http://www.ofcm.gov/...s05-03kwon.pptx Not a professional power point reader, but isn't the improvement in intensity forecasting as compared to last year's model gone by hour 60? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted May 5, 2011 Share Posted May 5, 2011 Not a professional power point reader, but isn't the improvement in intensity forecasting as compared to last year's model gone by hour 60? Yes, but the track forecasts are no longer complete garbage (at least through the back testing). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted May 5, 2011 Share Posted May 5, 2011 Stat-dynamical model shows skill at forecasting TC genesis 90 days out. This will be fantastic if it we can get it operationally, even with a high FAR. http://www.ofcm.gov/...murphreeV2.pptx Interesting results. So basically this means the NHC (or JTWC) might able to do something similar to what the CPC does currently with temperature and precipitation forecasts and forecast an enhanced probability of certain regions for TCG. Having an HSS hovering just below .4 is excellent considering the time range! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted May 5, 2011 Share Posted May 5, 2011 Those are the most interesting/relevant talks for forecasting. There is some science-y stuff that's cool, but I skipped over. If you are into forecasting, though, you should at least look over all the links I provided. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted May 5, 2011 Share Posted May 5, 2011 Those are the most interesting/relevant talks for forecasting. There is some science-y stuff that's cool, but I skipped over. If you are into forecasting, though, you should at least look over all the links I provided. Yea thanks Adam for giving a nice synopsis of the various talks. Will be great viewing material as we await the start of this years hurricane season! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted May 5, 2011 Share Posted May 5, 2011 Wow, great stuff. Will have too look at this more closely sometime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted May 5, 2011 Share Posted May 5, 2011 I hope HiRAD becomes operational in real time (basically a wide scan SFMR). That thing looks like the bomb diggity. Looking forward to digging into this a bit more over the weekend. Any improvement in the current SFMR will be welcomed. Thanks for the talking points, Adam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted May 5, 2011 Share Posted May 5, 2011 Looking forward to digging into this a bit more over the weekend. Any improvement in the current SFMR will be welcomed. Thanks for the talking points, Adam. Just to be clear, it's not an "improvement" in the sense of determining more accurate winds. It's using the same algorithms to generate the wind speeds, but HiRAD is not just available at the nadir of the radiometer, which allows a much larger wind swath to be sampled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.